Chas McCormick experienced a terrible 2024 season. Can he come back next year?
Chas McCormick enjoyed a very good 2023 season with 22 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His sharp decline in power in 2024 is one of the reasons that the team’s overall power declined this season.
The Astros’ team ISO declined by almost 30 points, and the team power ranking declined from 8th to 15th. Meanwhile, McCormick’s ISO declined by an incredible 121 points between 2023 and 2024—a 60% decrease in power. Chas isn’t the only hitter responsible for the decline in team power—for instance, Kyle Tucker missed three months in 2024 due to injury, which undoubtedly affected the Astros’ home run totals.
Obviously the Astros must be looking for options to increase the team’s HR power in 2025. And a key set of questions involve Chas McCormick. Can he make a comeback in 2025 which will address some of the power deficit? Should the Astros hope that McCormick returns with the power he showed in previous seasons—or should they instead look to trades or free agent signings to replace McCormick? So let’s talk about what happened to Chas McCormick in 2024 and what we can expect in 2025.
Over the previous three years in his career (2021-2023), McCormick averaged an OPS of .788 and an OPS+ of 116. He hit 50 home runs over those three years as a part time player, and had an average ISO of .190. His best season was 2023 when his 130 wRC+ made him a Top 20 offensive outfielder. Compare those numbers to his 2024 offense: five home runs, a 66 wRC+, a .556 OPS, and a .095 ISO.
Some fans wonder if McCormick has “aged out” prematurely. This seems very unlikely to me. Absent a significant career affecting injury, players who were good-to-very good for three consecutive years rarely “fall off a cliff” in a permanent way at age 29. Sure, it happens, but it is infrequent. At this prime age, decline in skill tends to be more gradual. For some of those cases in which good players seemed to prematurely fall off a cliff, Bill James observed that it was accompanied by a severe or abrupt change in the player’s K – BB relationship. McCormick’s K – BB percentage for 2021 – 23 is 17% – 25%. His 2024 K – BB is 21%, which is within his previous range. Compared to 2023, McCormick has seen a small decline in his BB rate and an uptick in his K rate, but the 2024 K – BB % is not a severe departure from his prior seasons.
Some 2024 observations based on Statcast metrics at Baseball Savant:
- McCormick showed notable deterioration of his plate discipline metrics. He swung at more pitches generally (54% vs. career avg. 49%) and first pitches in particular (43% vs. career 35%). His Chase % was the highest of his career (34% vs. career avg. 30%).
- Throughout his career, McCormick has not hit breaking pitches well, and 2024 was pretty much the same for those pitches. However, he showed a marked decline in hitting fastballs. Normally he is quite good at hitting fastballs—but not in 2024. Between 2023 and 2024, McCormick’s SLG against the fastball declined from .745 to .307. (However, it’s worth noting that this difference diminishes considerably if expected SLG is compared for the two seasons.)
- In 2024, McCormick hit under the ball more than any season since his rookie year, and fly balls were not productive. Chas has never been a high exit velocity hitter, but 2024 produced the lowest average exit velocity. In addition, McCormick’s barrel percent was the worst of his career.
- McCormick’s season was interrupted by a hamstring injury in May. By June McCormick had returned and hit relatively well (.804 OPS for June), but Dubon and Meyers were hitting well and getting most of the OF playing time. McCormick also hit well in September, following a brief demotion to AAA. He had a .417 OBP and .852 OPS in September. In between those two good months, McCormick’s offense was very weak.
McCormick’s power hitting profile in prior seasons was unusual, because he showed his greatest HR power to the opposite field. This HR power to RF almost disappeared in 2024. McCormick’s spray charts for 2022 – 2024 shows a major shift in his off-field hitting.
Baseball Savant
Baseball Savant
Baseball Savant
As I wrote in 2023, pitchers had always targeted McCormick with inside fastballs to mitigate his off-field power. To some extent, this approach by RHPs probably contributes to McCormick’s splits, which are better vs. LHPs. My article discussed the changes to McCormick’s approach in 2023, which were aimed in part at improving his splits against RHP:
McCormick still hits with strong power to the off-field, but now occasionally hits HRs to LF. He more frequently hits singles and doubles when he pulls the ball, which is a risk RHPs face when they execute their game plan against him…In an interview on MLB Network, McCormick said that he cannot cover the whole plate, and focuses on the middle of the plate. According to Baseball Savant, McCormick creates the 12th-best (among all players) run value on pitches over the heart of the plate. He is the 15th best for all sectors.
It is unclear if McCormick continued this approach in 2024. Just based on watching his plate appearances in 2024, he appears to struggle with inside fastballs. Moreover, McCormick missed his off-field power hitting in 2024. McCormick’s increase in swing rate this year doesn’t seem consistent with the approach he described in 2023. In any event, McCormick should probably attempt to reconnect with his off-field power hitting that made him a useful hitter over the 2021 – 2023 seasons.
I can’t predict what will happen in 2025. But my best guess is that 2024 was just a very severe case of regression. As he faced an early slump, (based on his own words), he tried numerous changes to his batting approach and mechanics which may have just added confusion to his efforts.
By all appearances, Chas over-performed in 2023. In my 2023 article I referenced a fangraphs chat which questioned his ability to sustain the “wild” HR / flyball rate of 2023. This can be shown by comparing his expected or “x” stats with the actual stats.
2023 (stat/x-stat)
OBA (.362, .344) BA (.273, .246) SLG (.489, .453)
I would expect regression from 2023 batting when the actual stats hold that size of margin over expected stats. But regression doesn’t necessarily follow a straight line. Sometimes the sequence of regressed seasons can produce jagged movement both up and down, when “over-corrections” precede corrections in the opposite direction.
It’s possible that that the extremes of the regression that led to 2024 will be followed with regression in the opposite direction. Only time will tell. But it’s worth noting that McCormick’s expected stats in 2024 are all higher than the actual stats.
2024 (stat/x-stat)
OBA (.257, .290) BA (.211, .227) SLG (.306, .369)
So, on top of his other problems at the plate in 2024, McCormick was also somewhat unlucky with the outcomes. This provides further reason to believe that he is more likely to experience upward regression in his 2025 batting stats.
Whether Chas can make a comeback also depends on how well he can work on improving his deficiencies over the off-season and in spring training. Based on the diminished plate discipline in 2024, he might be well advised to concentrate on a more patient approach at the plate.
McCormick may not return to 2023 offensive production, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he returned to batting stats closer to his 2022 numbers (wRC+ 115). The projection systems are likely to be in that range. ZIPS has not released new projections, but the current McCormick projection for 2025 is: 17 HR, .760 OPS and .178 ISO.
If McCormick could come back with that performance level in 2025, it would add much needed power back to the lineup and provide a productive option for sharing time in CF, which became an offensive hole in the 2024 lineup.