Bregman and the Astros have some decisions to make about his free agency this off-season. But the outcome could affect his future value.
Whenever you read an article about the Astros’ possible off-season moves, the story generally has a sentence like, “the Astros’ off-season needs will depend on whether they re-sign Alex Bregman.” And that certainly makes sense. Whether the Astros and Bregman come to an agreement or not will be pivotal to how the front office and ownership approach the off-season. The decision will determine how much money they spend and whether they must find a replacement at 3d base—in addition to their other needs.
I don’t know the answer to the Bregman question, and pretty much anyone who says they do is engaging in pure speculation about the Astros’ thinking. With that background, I will look at a question which can be evaluated with analytics. Will Bregman’s future value as a home run hitter be negatively affected if he changes teams?
We can start off with a spray chart of Bregman’s hits in 2024.
Baseball Savant
Baseball Savant overlays the types of hits on the dimensions of Bregman’s home ballpark (Minute Maid Park). As you can see from the cluster of red dots, almost all of Bregman’s home runs are hit to left field, with the majority landing behind the 315 foot dimensions of the Crawford Boxes. Only one HR was hit in the direction of RF. It appears that Bregman is quite comfortable hitting for power in MMP.
A more detailed evaluation of the impact of MMP on Bregman’s home runs can be discerned from Baseball Savant’s expected vs. actual home runs. Over the last three years, Bregman would have hit 11 more home runs if all his games had been played in MMP. He would have hit 30 or more HRs each year, 2022-2024.
The potential impact of changing ballparks can be estimated from Bregman’s expected vs. actual HRs over his career. For purposes of this comparison, I have excluded 2016 and 2020 because they are partial/shortened seasons.
Bregman HR (excl. 2016 and 2020)
Actual HR 195
Expected HR 165
Difference 30
Percentage difference 15.39%
An alternative calculation compares Savant’s estimated “excess” HRs if he had played all his games at MMP vs. expected HRs. The excess associated with the home park is 64 HRs or 30.4% which can be multiplied by 50% to reflect that one half the games are at home. The resulting percentage difference (15.2%) confirms the calculation above.
Excluding 2016 and 2020, Bregman’s average number of home runs above Savant’s expected HRs is 4.3 per year. Based on Bregman’s career “expected home runs,” only two ballparks come close to being as favorable for Bregman’s swing: Cincinnati and Colorado (247 and 237 x-HR, respectively, vs. 243 x-HR at MMP). Expanding the comparison to take into account all parks with a x-HR higher than 210, both the Phillies and White Sox home parks are reasonably favorable.
Given that MMP provides more favorable dimensions for Bregman’s HR swing, I think Bregman has a better chance of slowing future age-related decline in HRs if he stays in Houston. Bregman’s HR number has been fairly stable over the last three years (26, 29, 26). And his barrel rate in 2024 was higher than his career average. But one would expect the home run numbers eventually to decline as Bregman gets older. For instance, if the future HR decline is projected to be 22 HRs at age 34 based on his current career, the “excess” percentage above would imply a decline to 18 or 19 HRs based on average ballpark configurations.
From the perspective of hitting home runs, if Bregman and the Astros could arrive at an agreement to extend his time in Houston, it would be a win-win for both sides. Bregman could end up with more future home runs and the Astros would not face the daunting task of replacing 26 home runs in a lineup which has shown a decline in power.
Of course, other teams evaluating Bregman’s offense will be looking at more than just HRs. And they might feel satisfied that Bregman’s OPS is almost the same on the road and at home. In fact, Bregman’s career SLG is higher on the road than at home (.489 vs. .476), which is supported by a higher BABIP on the road.
Interestingly, Bregman’s walk rate is higher and the strike out rate lower at home. This suggests that Bregman’s plate discipline is better at home than on the road (career BB/K of 97 at home and 82 on the road). It’s unclear if this involves ballpark characteristics or other factors (such as Bregman’s comfort zone at home or umpiring differences on the road). However, for what it’s worth, the BB and K ballpark factor for MMP is above average.
I would like to think that the Astros and Bergman can work out a contract that keeps him in Houston. But I’m not sure that is in the cards. We will know the answer over the next few months.