Justin Verlander will always be part of Astros lore. I used to wonder why people cared so much about which team a player was inducted into the Hall of Fame with; I understand now. However, winning baseball games does not leave much room for nostalgia. Joe Espada needs to give the ball to pitchers who give the Astros the best chance of winning. Therefore, the Astros must let one of their young guns start over Verlander this October.
At this point, the Astros are probably locked into the three seed this October. The most critical decision Houston needs to make before the playoffs is how to configure the pitching staff. The game one starter should be Valdez, and the game two starter will likely be Kikuchi, but there is a reasonable debate after that. Given his performance and experience this season, Hunter Brown has probably secured the three spot. Some fans will argue that Verlander still deserves the spot over Arrighetti, but this would be imprudent.
Justin Verlander is only two years removed from a Cy Young award; however, for a 41-year-old coming off TJ surgery, it may as well be five or six years ago. The version of Justin Verlander who pitched in 2022 no longer exists. His fastball velocity is a mile and a half slower than in 2022, and his slider breaks over an inch less. The result has been fewer swings and misses, more dangerous contact, and more home runs. Verlander’s cold streak since returning from the IL is not a blip on the radar but a product of getting older. Although his ERA is only 4.52, his ERA predictors are much higher. Luckily the Astros have other options available.
Spencer Arrighetti is the opposite of Justin Verlander. He lacks elite pedigree, is young and inexperienced, and father time is on his side. Unlike Verlander, Arrighetti is getting better. Spencer did have a poor start to the season, but he is adjusting to the league and improving every month. Arrighetti pitched to a 1.95 ERA in August and struck out 47 batters in only 32.1 innings. Most importantly, from a development standpoint, he only walked ten batters. It would be unwise to expect this level of performance from Arrighetti going forward, but if you had to buy stock on him or Verlander, who would you pick?
Baseball is a fickle game; players age quickly, and teams must adjust to new realities rapidly, or they risk losing winnable games. Justin Verlander is probably still a decent back-of-the-rotation option for most teams, but especially after Monday’s performance, can anyone seriously argue that he is a better option than Brown or Arrighetti? Hopefully, the two young pitchers will pitch well enough in September to resolve the question on their own.