A Poll for you…
We are in the hot stove season, and Astros’ fans are wondering what kind of signings the Astros could make. So, let’s play a little game. I’ll provide some free agent options at 1b and the OF, and you tell me which you would prefer. Some ground rules, first, though.
I’m restricting the free agents to guys who fit what I would call a realistic Astros’ option. By now I’m sure you are aware of the Astros payroll bumping up against the luxury tax thresholds—which may restrict what the Astros can realistically do. Basically I’m thinking of stop gap options that are relatively inexpensive bats ($7 M – $16 M) who can play either the OF or first base on a 1 or 2 year contract. I’m excluding players who were extended qualifying options (QO). So, not the big names. And thus Santander isn’t on the list because he was extended a QO. I didn’t include Juricksen Profar because it’s really hard to figure out what kind of contract he will require.
The players were on Ben Clemens’ (Fangraphs) list of the top 50 free agents, and you can read about each of the players at that link. I used that article to guess at possible contract costs, using some combination of Clemens’ own estimates and the Crowdsourcing estimates. All of these hitters are flawed—which is why they are expected to be relatively inexpensive. For some the main flaw is age. When hitters are old, it’s hard to pinpoint when they will decline in a severe way. For others, it includes a history of up and down performance or injury. Most of them are considered platoon bats rather than full time players.
Tyler O’ Neill (Age 30) Outfielder
He is a RHB whose career is somewhat up and down with injuries along the way. He has light tower power and a good walk rate,, but sometimes suffers frustrating slumps. He put up a terrific season with Boston in 2024: 31 HR, wRC+ of 131, His 2025 projection is a .230 BA with a 109 wRC+. His contract is estimated at 2 or 3 years at $16 – $17 M/year.
Joc Pederson (Age 33) Outfielder
He has made a career as a hard hitting platoon LHB. His career numbers are not as consistent as one would like, but he does have a number of good batting seasons. He posted good offensive stats for the Diamondbacks in 2024: 23 HR, .275 BA, and 151 wRC+. His 2025 projection is .249 BA with 125 wRC+. Supposedly he made some marginal corrections to his hitting in 2024 which resulted in a career year. Contract estimate: 1 or 2 years at $14 M/ year.
Paul Goldschmidt (Age 37) First Baseman
The Houston area native had a possible age-decline season in 2024. Only two years ago, he was a MVP. But he suffered a terrible first half of 2024 and rebounded somewhat in the second half. His final numbers were 100 wRC+, 22 HR, and a .245 BA. His 2025 projection is a 111 wRC+. His cost is projected a 1 year, $13 – $14 M.
Carlos Santana (Age 39) First Baseman
The former hard hitting switch hitting catcher is now a high walk rate first baseman who is considered one of the better fielders at that position. Obviously he is getting up in age, but he posted a fine season in 2024. He hit 23 HR with a 114 wRC+. Ben Clemens’ article compares his walk rate skills to Joey Votto. His 2025 projection is a 105 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR. His age makes him a risk, but the good side is that he probably is the least costly of the hitters on this list. The contract estimate is 1 year at $7 – $9 M per year.
Michael Conforto (Age 32) Outfielder
This lefty hitting outfielder has experienced significant injuries over his career, which limited his playing time and rendered his career stats sporadic. He is a high exit velocity hitter who played in a pitcher’s park in San Francisco. But he had a fine season with 20 HR and a 112 wRC+. In first free agent season (2023) I was among the Astros’ fans who wanted to see the Astros acquire Conforto for the Michael Brantley role. The contract estimate is 1 year at $10 M – $12 M. I question the contract estimate as perhaps too low…but it’s the Ben Clemens and Crowdsource range.
Your Preference
Assuming the hitters above can acquired for the contract range shown, who would you prefer as an Astros’ addition?