Who is getting paid and who isn’t?
In the previous article I wrote, I talked about how in 2024, the Houston Astros ended the year with the 3rd highest payroll in baseball while having more buried money than any other team and retaining less than 10% for 2025. I talked about where money is going this offseason for sure and who is coming back, either under contract or under arbitration.
This time, we are going to look at where that money should be going and to who it should be going to.
Who should be paid during arbitration period?
The Houston Astros have 10 players who could be coming into the 2025 season on an arbitration contract. That includes players like Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Maricio Dubon and others. A lot of it has to do with where the CB Tax will be, with the Astros having to pay over $4 million last year (Go check out Cody Poage’s article for more details on the tax). While not every player will be paid, I think there is a few that I expect to reach an arbitration deal.
Who do I think are those players?
Dubon is estimated to earn $6.5 million in arbitration this offseason after his stellar, multi-position 2024 season. The Astros still have control till after the 2026 season.
Their cornerstone shortstop since 2022, Pena is expected to earn an estimated $4.8 million in arbitration. The Astros have control of Pena till the end of the 2027 season.
After a 2023 campaign that saw him hurt for most of the year, the 27 year old is expected an estimated $2.375 million in arbitration, with the Astros having control till the end of the 2026 season.
The starting outfielder for most of the 2023 season, Meyers is expected an estimated $2 million this offseason. The Astros have control of Meyers till after the 2027 season.
Currently, according to Spotrac.com, the Astros are expected to pay over $65.5 million in arbitration this offseason. That is between the 10 players that are in line to get paid, but if GM Dana Brown wanted to get “Creative” like he has said in interviews, he is going to have to find ways to get around paying so much.
So, what about the rest?
What that will include is getting rid of some of the more expensive players that are nearing the end of their arbitration. There are six players who could be getting tendered contracts, such as Pena, Valdez, and Dubon. The other four will have the possibility be non-tendered, meaning they are not going to be getting paid by the Astros and will instead get released.
That means there is four different players who have the chance to not get contracts for the upcoming 2025 season, clearing space both on the roster and on the salary cap. While it is not known who will be getting non-tendered by the team, it seems likely it will be one of the pitchers and one of the outfielders and, after the 2024 season, I think Chas McCormick is the odd man out.
While I want the other one to be Garcia, I think it will end up being Jose Urquidy that ends up gone. Not only does he only have one more year left of arbitration, unlike Garcia who has two, Urquidy is expected to make over $1 million more than Garcia, emptying a lot of room on the payroll and getting rid of someone who only has a year left of control.
And now the two players that everyone’s eyes have been on since the end of the Astros’ season, Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez.
With both of them coming up on their last year of arbitration, there is a number of things the team can do for them. The easiest would be paying both of them in arbitration and playing out the 2025 season with the two of them and letting them leave in free agency following the end of the season.
Free agents or trades?
The Astros also lost a key piece of the team this offseason, Alex Bregman. After being the starting third baseman for the Astros since he came into the league in 2016, Bregman is leaving the team, possibly, in free agency. That means that the Astros, for the first time in almost 10 years, are going to be shopping around for someone to fill the hot corner.
The biggest problem with this will be the money they can spend. Due to the big bunch of arbitration deals the team will have to make and the Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero contracts costing the team $63 million, there is only so much the team is going to be able to spend before they hit the CB tax. With the first tax threshold set at $241 million, this puts the team in a very tough spot for having to pay anyone outside of their own club.
One of the best things the team can do to help out their salary problems is trading players. The two best trade pieces would most likely be Tucker and Valdez. Combined, the two are supposed to make an estimated $35.5 million in 2025 and both of them will be free agents after the 2025 season. With both of them coming off huge seasons, they are at the height of their values for trades.
Getting rid of those two would put a huge dent in the team, but it would also put an even bigger dent in the salary. The Astros starting rotation is already looking good for 2025 if they lost Framber, with Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier all ready, so if the team wanted to get rid of him, they could get a big haul, even just for the one year.
For Tucker it would be a bit more of a loss. Finding an outfielder to replace Tucker is not an easy ask. Finding an outfielder as young as him that will give you 25+ homers, 25+ doubles and 25+ steals is virtually impossible. But the amount that the team could get for Tucker in a trade would be huge.
The front office is going to have their hands full this offseason and things could look a lot different coming into 2025. A lot of players are coming up on that time in their careers when they need something done, and it is up to Crane, Brown and the rest of the front office to make those decisions.