What does this massive change mean for us?
As an Astros fan, of course I was happy when I saw the Christian Walker signing. A 3-year, $60 million deal to fill a position we have not truly had filled for quite a while. But how much more is Walker? There are different parts of his game that don’t just fit in well with the Astros, but fit in well with the fans and give us a product we can be satisfied with for the first time since 2021, the last good year of Yuli Gurriel.
The two things that are going to bring that to us are his pull rate and his fielding numbers. But that is not to say he won’t come with plenty of flaws of his own as well. Like everyone in the league, he’s got his problems around the game. For one, his batting average is something that can be worked on; at a career .250 average. Another thing would maybe be his walk rate, only walking at a 7.3% clip in 2024. One more could be his speed, sitting at only 21% sprint speed in baseball.
Making up for all of this though are some of the other aspects of his game that are going to translate to a ballpark like Daikin perfectly. First, his defense. Compared to what we have had in the past, I would say this is a MASSIVE improvement. Having won the Gold Glove for first each of the past three years, Walker has solidified himself as a wall at the corner, and someone who will match up well on the right side with Altuve covering the rest of the ground out there.
Astros first base; 2022 – 2024
Christian Walker
- Outs above average; 39
- Runs Prevented; 29
Yuli Gurriel
- Outs above average; -11
- Runs Prevented; -8
Jon Singleton
- Outs above average; -7
- Runs Prevented; -5
Jose Abreu
- Outs above average; -8
- Runs Prevented; -6
The vast improvement the team will be getting defensively should be night and day. This should bode well for the whole team, but most importantly, the two pitchers that are set to be the two main starters in 2025, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, with Framber being in the 99th percentile in ground ball rate and Brown in the 81st percentile, making both of them primarily ground ball pitchers.
This outstanding defense is not just something the Astros saw though, but something that has been on display for the whole league to see for a while now. His stats, when matched up against some of the other top 1st baseman in the league, show just how amazing his glove really is, with not another player being even close to his numbers.
Outs Above Average; 2022 – 2024
- Christian Walker; 39
- Carlos Santana; 20
- Bryce Harper; 11
- Josh Naylor; 9
- Garrett Cooper; 7
The other part of his game that will translate well is his pull hitting. While his average is something that can be improved, one thing that will help boost that, and his extra base hit numbers, will be playing his home games in Houston now. That is due to the fact that Christian Walker, his whole career, has been a pull side hitter, and now he is going to a park where being a pull side righty is about the best thing you can ask for.
Of his 120 hits in 2024, about 75% of them came on the pull side, with 23 of his 26 home runs flying out to either left or left center. One massive advantage for Walker is that all of those hits will be heading towards the Crawford Boxes and its 315 ft wall, one of the shortest in all of baseball. Although the wall is still 19 ft high, this shouldn’t be a problem for Walker to get over.
There were hits that only counted as singles and doubles that Walker hit in 2024 that, if hit in his new home stadium, would have been gone. This has not always been the case for him, but he seems to start pulling the ball more and more as years go on and he gets older. With a barrel% in the 90th percentile of hitters, I think that Walker is going to be using the 315 ft long, 19 ft tall Crawford Boxes much more than he was using the rear 350ft left field at Chase Field in Arizona.
These two aspects of his game alone will not be the only two that turn him into the first baseman we have all been waiting for, but they will be big factors in it. There are parts of his game he still needs to improve on to turn him into a better player and it is hard to say right now if it was a good signing for the Astros or not, but he seems like a player that has all the right tools to be a star for the team.