Comps are flying off the board?
As most dialed in baseball fans know, the Toronto Blue Jays just inked star first basemen to a 14 year, 500 million dollar extension. At first blush, this news belongs nowhere near an Houston Astros fan site, but the ripple effects will be felt throughout the game. The main onlooker for the next winter’s free agent bonanza will be none other than former Houston Astro Kyle Tucker.
Naturally, they play different positions, so I would never want to openly compare the two in determining who is more valuable. I certainly wouldn’t pit one against the other in one of my Hall of Fame Index pieces. Yet, if I am Tucker’s representation I just stood up and took notice. Since Tucker is in the exact same situation contract wise, looking at the two would likely have foretold what would have been waiting for us at the end of 2025.
When evaluating a trade from the Astros perspective, it is not simply a case of looking at the players received and determining if they are as good or more valuable overall than Tucker. The first question is obviously whether we had a snowball chance in hell of giving him a contract like this and if not then what else was available on the market for him. There also comes the question of whether you would have been better off letting him ball out for one more year and then taking your comp pick as your consolation prize.
Guerrero: Age 26, 2019 debut, 3585 PA, 21.6 BWAR, 17.0 FWAR
Tucker: Age 28, 2018 debut, 2620 PA, 23.8 BWAR, 22.2 FWAR
At first blush, Guerrero looks a little more bankable given that he is two years younger and has been more durable. However, if we look at the stats from a per 500 plate appearance basis we begin to notice something drastic. Tucker averages 4.54 BWAR per 500 plate appearances and 4.24 FWAR. Guerrero averages 3.01 BWAR and 2.37 FWAR respectively. Yet, they just paid more than 35 million dollars a season for that level of production.
If we are looking at things in terms of a bang for their buck kind of deal, Guerrero would need to produce a little more than four wins a season for the next 15 years to make the overall deal worth their while at present dollars. If we assumed 60 BWAR and 60 FWAR for the next 15 seasons then Guerrero would become something between Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell historically. Anyone buying that?
If we wanted to compare him the Hall of Famers, he feels more like a Harmon Killebrew or Willie McCovey. Sure, he is a better hitter for average, but in terms of likely overall value, something between 60 to 70 career wins seems much more likely. There is nothing wrong with being either of those guys. You just paid Bagwell/Thomas prices for McCovey/Killebrew production.
If Tucker is two years older then 14 years seems a little far-fetched for him. If I were his agent I would target 12 years. At 36 million per season, that contract would end up totaling 12 years and 432 million dollars. Seems the Astros dodged a bullet on this one as I don’t see any way that was going to happen. I’m sure there is an organization out there that will pay that sum and that is particularly if he continues to play as he has the past two weeks.
The Guerrero contract makes sense for the Blue Jays only under two scenarios. First, the cost per win continues to go up. I think that’s a fair expectation. Even if we were being conservative, we could expect the Fangraph’s model to go up to 12 million per win by the time the contract is up. Suddenly, he would need to be a three win player and not a four win player.
The second part is something a Tucker contract can’t get to (unless he were to come back to Houston). He would retire as a lifelong Blue Jay in the Hall of Fame. If he simply doubles his counting numbers of 15 seasons and added to his first six, he would end up being at 480 home runs, over 1400 runs scored, and 1500 RBI. That seems like it would be good enough to punch his ticket.
Maybe, just maybe they can surround him with enough talent to take home a World Series trophy within those 15 seasons. That seems highly unlikely given their division and the awesome resources they would have to put together just to keep this current band of good, young players together. What does a Bo Bichette extension look like? You’ve already extended Alejandro Kirk and you have George Springer and Anthony Santander under contract for at least a couple more seasons. This is the team you’re running with.
Tucker on the other hand could end up joining a team ready to take the next step. Place him on the Phillies or shudder….the Dodgers and they could be off to the races. A team like the Yankees could afford to bring him in. Those teams already have the horses ready to compete. Giving a player like him 40 million per season (say 12/480) seems perfectly reasonable.
To a team like Houston it’s just a little out of our grasp. I went over Framber’s likely contract and that seemed a little out of our grasp as well. Unfortunately, that’s the direction these megastars are going. It definitely triggers situations like Cam Smith (should he become one of these players) or even Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Pena who will be a step or two below those guys. It definitely is something to put in the back of our mind when we start thinking extensions.