Let’s welcome the new Astros hurler
Obviously, trade deadline time is a mixed bag. There will be ton of reactions to the Astros decision to trade Jake Bloss, Will Wagner, and Joey Loperido to the Jays in exchange for what amounts to a rental starter. This article is not so much about that. The question is what the Astros can expect from their new hurler.
Framber Valdez: 18 starts, 110.1 innings = 6.13 innings per start
Hunter Brown: 20 starts, 110.1 innings = 5.52 innings per start
Spencer Arighetti: 19 starts, 92,0 innings = 4.84 innings per start
Ronel Blanco: 20 starts, 119.0 innings = 5.95 innings per start
Kusei Kikuchi: 22 starts, 115.2 innings = 5.26 inning per start
So, even before we get into the meat of his actual numbers we see that he would lead the team in starts and be fourth in innings per start. Unlike some other younger pitchers on the market, an innings limit is not an immediate concern. So, the Astros have acquired a guy that routinely gives you between five and six innings every time out.
Bloss had only had three starts and was averaging less than five innings a start. So, in terms of getting someone you can rely on, the Astros have acquired someone that has routinely served ably as a third or fourth starter. Obviously, we only have what’s in front of us to go on. Justin Verlander may come back fairly soon and Luis Garcia may also return before the end of the season.
The key to understanding this deal is looking inside the numbers, On first blush, this was a lot to pay for an average pitcher and when you look at the basic numbers this deal looks awful. I am not going to opine about the level of the prospects going in return. Prospects aren’t really my thing anyway and like most people I was stunned by the return for Kikuchi, but let’s look at the basics first. I will also include quality starts for the five guys above as they represent our five man rotation for the time being.
Framber Valdez: 9-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 11 QS
Hunter Brown: 9-6, 4.00 ERA, 1.369 WHIP, 12 QS
Spencer Arighetti: 4-9, 5.53 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, 4 QS
Ronel Blanco: 9-5, 2.95 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 11 QS
Yusei Kikuchi: 4-9, 4.75 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, 8 QS
So, on the basis of these numbers alone, Kikuchi settles in as the Astros fourth starter. He doesn’t have quite the quality start percentage as the top three hurlers, but he certainly supplants Arighetti as the fourth starter. Moreover, if we expect Justin Verlander to return then the Astros have a functional five man rotation moving forward.
However, one of the things we always want to do is look at the batted ball statistics to see what we can expect moving forward. This is where we look at things like K rates, left on base percentage, BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and more advanced ERA estimators based on actual batted ball statistics.
Valdez: 7.99 K/9, .305 BABIP, 75.3 LOB%, 3.85 xERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.34 xFIP
Brown: 9.63 K/9, .324 BABIP, 77.7 LOB%, 3.38 xERA, 3.94 FIP, 3.60 xFIP
Arighetti: 10.17 K/9, .333 BABIP, 69.3 LOB%, 4,12 xERA, 4.45 FIP, 4,40 xFIP
Blanco: 8.62 K/9, .188 BABIP, 82.5 LOB%, 3.85 xERA, 4.41 FIP, 4.16 xFIP
Kikuchi: 10.12 K/9, .340 BABIP, 70.8 LOB%, 3.98 xERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.39 xFIP
Let’s start with some good news. Kikuchi’s numbers clearly indicate he is a positive regression candidate even before the Astros pitching coaches take a look. His numbers are approaching the numbers we see from all of the starters except for Arighetti. He will be second on the club in strikeouts per nine innings and he has one of the lower walks rates amongst big league starters.
The bad news is that Blanco is a serious negative regression candidate. In particular, his BABIP and left on base percentage are unsustainable over the long haul. Yet, even if he produces the numbers above for the rest of the season, the Astros have the makings of a competitive rotation every time out.
Justin Verlander: 8.05 K/9, .263 BABIP, 81.6 LOB%, 3.85 xERA, 4.97 FIP, 4.92 xFIP
Well, based on pedigree it would seem that reinforcements are on the way, but actual performance might not agree with that. Who knows if the team has any other irons in the fire, but this is a flawed rotation to be sure. Kikuchi helps when you consider he is replacing Bloss in the rotation. Yet, this is a team without enough dominant starters to make a go of it.
We have about 20 hours until the trade deadline as I write this. Time will tell if the Astros are done or if they have any other tricks left in their sleeve. The bottom line is that in the immediate term this deal helps the starting pitching depth. It may or may not be enough to take the division, but it is hard to look at a playoff rotation that features four of these five guys as go to starters. Let’s hope there is more on the way.