We’re only three games into the season, but I wouldn’t worry about the Astros Offense
Writing about offensive player stats three games into the season can be quite awkward. The statistical results at this early stage have no predictive power for future performance. The reasons are twofold (1) the tiny sample size, which reflects that the sample is less than 2% of the season; and (2) the outsized impact of good or bad luck.
The Astros’ hitting results are fairly meager, though sufficient to win 2 of 3 games. In those three games, the Astros are averaging 5 hits per game, with only 2 extra base hits in three games. At this early stage, the hitting results tell you what happened, but are not meaningful for evaluating the hitting performance.
Arguably the “expected” hitting stats, which are based on Statcast measurements, provide somewhat more useful information because they neutralize the luck factor (i.e., batted balls hit straight to a fielder or handled by an unusually good or bad fielding play). These are called process-oriented statistics because they reflect whether the batter accomplished what he intended, even if the results aren’t there. Given the tiny sample, the expected stats don’t reveal much useful information about the future. But they do provide some information about the batters who are executing from a process standpoint.
The list below is the number of “hard hits” by Astros hitters. At the simplest level, batters are trying to hit the ball hard, and the list is ordered by number of hard hits The list also shows the expected batting average (x-BA) for hitters over the three game series.
Fangraphs Statcast Data
The table below is ordered by expected Slugging Percent (x-SLG).
Fangraphs Statcast Data
Again, don’t put too much confidence in small sample numbers, which may distort the percentages. For instances, we can’t reasonably expect Yainer Diaz to slug at a .705 pace. And all Cam Smith has to do is hit 1 HR in order to land near the top of the SLG list at this stage.
Christian Walker has been smacking the ball exceptionally hard (99.8 mph average exit velocity) to start the season. 58% of his plate appearances have ended in a hard hit ball, and his .367 x-BA leads the team. Yainer Diaz has also gotten off to a good start, leading in x-SLG and second in x-BA.
The expected stats can be used by the hitters themselves to confirm the progress they are making from a process standpoint. In a 2023 Fangraphs interview, Christian Walker talked about not over-reacting to batting average results:
What am I missing? How can I get this average up? But then, when you looked at the advanced analytics, the expected slug, the expected average… the expected everything was through the roof.
“It’s helpful to be able to trust your process under those certain circumstances. So I’m not using data to change my swing; I’m using data to let me know if something needs to be addressed or not.”
I think it is too early to reach any conclusions regarding the patience of the overall hitting approach. The sample is too small to suggest whether improvements are real. But the Astros in their first three games seemed to show more patience than in 2023. The pitches seen were 3.99 per PA compared to 3.65 per PA in 2023.
Some fans may look at the box scores and worry about the Astros offense. However, I wouldn’t be overly concerned about the offense at this point.