Can Justin Verlander right his ship after rough outings in August and September?
As we head into the last two weeks of the season, Justin Verlander is one of the intriguing question marks for the Astros pitching staff. The future Hall of Fame pitcher has endured a series of poor outings subsequent to returning from the injured list in August. He likely has a couple more starts this season to see if he can round into more reasonable pitching form. The answer to that question has obvious implications for what he may be able to contribute in the post-season.
Verlander returned from the injured list on August 21 and has pitched five games so far. The first and the last of those five games were somewhere between average and good starting performances, according to Game Score. In those two game, he had game scores of 56 and 51. However, the three games between those two acceptable performance were poor, according to Game Score (GSc of 10 – 39). The Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) over those five games is 5.38.
The weak FIP indicates that Verlander’s strike out and walk rates generally were poor during this return period. The K/9 and BB/9 rates deteriorated even more in the three games this month: 3.55 K/9 and 4.19 BB/9. An important indicator in future starts will be whether the K/9 and BB/9 return to more normal rates.
Despite the deteriorating strike out rate, the issue does not appear to be a problem with his stuff:
- Fangraphs’ Stuff+ model measures the physical characteristics (velocity, movement) of pitches in order rank a pitcher’s overall stuff and stuff for each of his pitches. Verlander continues to exhibit very good Stuff+ in August and September (112 in September and 111 n August). This above average status is true for each of his four pitches (FB, Slider, Change Up, and Curve Ball). The breaking and off-speed pitches have particularly good movement with Stuff+ ranging from 116 – 122.
- The 4 seam fastball velocity averaged 93.6 mph over the five games. As he ages, Verlander’s fastball velocity has decreased, but it continues to be generally acceptable. His current average velocity is close to the average for 2023—but about 1⁄2 mph lower.
- Verlander continues to be skilled at achieving high spin rates—something that distinguishes his career. According to Baseball Savant, 2024 JV is in top 15% for fastball spin and top 26% for curveball spin. Baseball Savant shows that JV’s fastball and curveball both exhibit above average movement.
If the problem isn’t pitching stuff, what is it? Based on both watching the games and the statistical results, I suggest it is both a command and control problem:
- The Stuff+ model also includes a Location+ measurement—essentially measuring whether the pitchers are being located well. In the two August games, Verlander exhibited above average results on Location+ (103). But for the three games in September, Verlander’s Location+ plummeted to 93.
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
- In 2023, Verlander averaged throwing 69% of pitches for strikes. In Aug./Sept. of 2024, he threw 61% of pitches for strikes. During the two poor performances to begin September 2024, 57% of pitches were thrown for strikes.
Is it possible that the command weakness is affecting the poor K/9 rate during this period? Probably. Obviously a command/control issue can inflate the walk rate. But I suspect that the ability to command the accurate location of pitches will diminish whiff rates and K rates. The charts below show Verlander’s whiff rates by location during August/September 2024.
Brooks Baseball
Brooks Baseball
As shown above, whiff rates are location specific in and around the zone. Balls located on the outside edges of the zone are more likely to produce whiffs for RHBs and LHBs. For RHBs, pitches away, above and below the zone, are more likely to produce whiffs.
Given that Verlander’s issue is mainly commanding location, most likely it’s a glitch in his delivery or release point. My surmise is that his poor performance probably is correctable, given time to identify mechanical problems in his delivery. This assumes that he isn’t affected by a hidden injury of some kind. Lingering physical issues can affect control and command.
By all accounts, Verlander probably knows more about his mechanics than most any major league pitcher. So, if the command issue is correctable, I suspect that the odds are good that Verlander can achieve a return of his performance to a level at least similar to 2023. I am skeptical that he will return to top of the rotation performance at age 41. But he would be useful to the Astros if he can return to something like average or slightly above average starting pitcher performance.
Depending on how the next couple of starts play out, the Astros’ playoff pitching plans may be affected (assuming they make the playoffs). If he returns to normal, would he become the 4th starter in the playoffs? Could he be utilized in tandem starts with a pitcher like Arrighetti or Blanco? Depending on his performance, would the Astros consider using the future Hall of Famer as a long reliever. These are difficult questions for the Astros. But his next couple of starts will shed light on the appropriate answers.