Why the Dana Brown shouldn’t make a big move at the deadline
I would love it if the Astros could win the Pennant every year. However, as much as the past seven years have spoiled us, this is not realistic. Yes, having a competitive team every season is sustainable, just look at teams like the Yankees, Rays, and Dodgers, but consistently making long playoff runs year in and out is not something a team can sustain over the long run. This is why the current Astros dynasty is so impressive, it is almost unprecedented. In baseball, it is not uncommon for great regular-season teams to “choke” in the playoffs, just look at the 2001 Mariners, the 2019 Dodgers, the 2021 Dodgers, the 2022 Dodgers, the 2023 Dodgers.. ok you get the point. This is not to dismiss the Astros’ recent run as simply “random variation”, it is just stating the fact that baseball involves a high degree of luck. In a short postseason series, anything can happen. Cy Young-winning pitchers can blow a 5-run lead (looking at you Justin Verlander) and sometimes a below-average starter can pitch his ass off (Thank you Brandon Backe!). As such, giving up your best prospects to trade for one particular player usually does not significantly increase your chances of winning the World Series. Instead, the best way to win the most accolades over the long run is not to sacrifice your future for a month-long tournament in October, but to create a system that facilitates success year in and year out. In years past, the Astros had the prospect capital and team depth to make big moves without sacrificing the long-term health of the club, in 2024 they do not. This is why Dana Brown must keep his powder dry this season and abstain from making a big splash at this year’s deadline!
How much can one player really help in a playoff series?
Baseball reference has a really good statistic called “win-loss percentage with an average team”, (162WL%) it assumes that everyone else on the team is an average player (not replacement level) and predicts what the team’s winning percentage would be with a given player over a full 162 game season. Without looking, what do you think would be the career 162WL% of Aaron Judge? The correct answer is .533%, which implies he is worth four wins above a league-average player. That makes a significant difference over a full 162-game season; however, adding an MVP-caliber player only increases a team’s chances of winning a 5-game playoff series by approximately 10%. Baseball really is a team sport, and even adding an elite player to an already good team does not guarantee success.
Adding a big league talent: A big payment for a marginal improvement
The Astro’s primary area of need is the starting rotation, so there is pressure to trade for another pitcher. While there may be some low cost rentals on the table, given the imbalance between buyers and sellers most of the assets will be expensive. The Astros currently have only one top 100 prospect, Jacob Melton, and if Dana Brown wants to acquire anything more than a rental they will probably have to part with Jake Meyers or Chas McCormick. Considering that Jake and Chas are currently helping win games right now, it would be unwise to trade them. Luckily, the Astros probably do not need to make these moves to make the playoffs.
The Astros are in a dog fight for the AL West, but they are the favorite to win it. For one, they have two good starting pitchers who are about to return from injury. It is hard to predict how Verlander and Garcia will do, but it is likely that they will be more effective than Bloss or Arrighetti. Secondly, Kyle Tucker is likely to return in the coming weeks. Lastly, the Astros have a superior run differential than Texas or Seattle, which is a better indicator of overall quality than win-loss record.
The price to trade for even a rental pitcher like Yusei Kikuchi is likely to be too high for the Astros. Although he is only projected to produce one win above replacement, the Astros lack the prospect depth that other teams have and they may have to use one of their top five prospects to land him. The Astros do have significant holes in the bottom of their rotation, but giving Bloss and Arrighetti reps to develop at the big league level may help the team in 2025 and on. Plus, the playoff rotation will likely consist of Valdez, Brown, Verlander and Garcia. While this is hardly the same quality as in 2022, making a significant upgrade will be prohibitively expensive. How can the team expect to rebuild the farm system if it is trading its best prospects every July?
Even if the Astros win the division, they will likely have to play a three game series in the wild card round. While the Astros have not made it seem like one over the past ten years, the playoffs are truly a coin flip. Giving up valuable assets to marginally increase your chances of making it into a three game series is not a sound decision.
Good is sometimes good enough: stay put Dana
The 2024 Astros are not as good as the 2022 Astros, but they are still good enough to have success in the postseason. If everyone can be healthy this team has a better starting rotation than in 2021, and that team was able to win the American League pennant. When fully healthy, the current Astros offense is probably just as good as last year’s team too. This team could certainly be improved, but the Astros are already good enough to win the division and make the playoffs. Giving up valuable prospects or big leaguers to marginally increase the team’s chances of winning a championship this year, will undoubtedly hurt the team long term. Instead of going after a big trade deadline acquisition and jeopardizing the future, Dana Brown should be satisfied with the team he has: a playoff contender that is built to compete for the next few years.