Tomoyuki Sugano: An Astros Starting Pitching target?

Is this the help we need at an affordable price?

As the Astros head into the offseason, they face a number of challenges filling holes in the organization with a limited budget, requiring them to be “creative” with their payroll.

This of course is the last thing that a fan wants to hear, and it’s tough to argue that Crane has been cheap or unwilling to open his wallet, albeit where the dollars were allocated may be of a different discussion.

Clack recently wrote an article about the need for the Astros to acquire starting pitching, highlighting the importance of depth and the general volatility of even elite rotations. Adding this to the fact that I’d personally prefer the Astros to look to deal Valdez and reinvest his money into Bregman, I wondered what hidden treasure or bargain pitchers may be available. (I’d love to keep Valdez, but position players are generally safer to gamble longer-term contracts on)

When I think of this style of pitcher, I’m generally thinking of a pitcher who is looking for a lesser financial investment but has the potential of providing either elite results or solid inning eaters. These could be bounceback candidates, elite pitchers with injury risks, or pitchers who underutilize their arsenal.

The Astros have also been known to utilize their analytics to get the absolute most out of their pitchers, generally targeting pitchers who have elite spin rates, solid control, and with dominant pitches that are often under utilized by other teams, allowing them to get more out of their arsenal. This has allowed them to gain massive values out of “bargain” pick ups in the past.

As I started to look through the list of potential candidates, one name began to stand out to me.

The man is a legend, an 8-time All-Star, a 4-time ERA title winner, a 3x Gold Glove winner, a Pitching Triple Crown, 2x Best Pitcher Award, an MVP award, 2x Strikeout title, and passing the 100-win mark nearly half a decade ago.

No I’m not talking about big names that likely popped to mind such as Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, or Shane Bieber. I’m talking about the NPB legend, Tomoyuki Sugano.

Sugano has dominated the NPB as one of their all-time greats, going 136-74 with a pristine 2.43 ERA in his 1,873 IP. He’s 35, so while the younger flamethrowing pitcher out of Japan (Sasaki) will garner the headlines, Sugano provides a player on the opposite end of his career, but with the potential to be a true difference-maker within a rotation without the financial investment of some of the others.

Sugano will be a Free Agent, and the team that acquires him will not be required to pay a posting fee. Given his age, you have to assume the contract will not be a massive one.

With that said, at 34, Sugano put up arguably the second-best year of his career last year, pitching to the tune of a 15-3 record with a 1.67 ERA across 156.2 IP.

Sugano’s results have come through utilizing absolute pinpoint control with his six-pitch arsenal. In 2024, Sugano walked just 16 batters, a remarkable figure coming in at just under one batter per nine innings.

Over time, Sugano has adjusted his approach, as injuries early in his career sapped him of the elite velocity that he broke into the league with. He did this without detriment to his performance as he is able to locate his 92 mph fastball, and frankly nearly all of his pitches with remarkable precision. Additionally, Sugano has been a durable arm. I noted the injuries, but Sugano has made at least 20 starts in 10 of the 12 years he has been a professional, providing a consistent ace year after year for his Yomiuri Giants. He has even dominated in the playoffs, earning himself a Climax Series MVP when he outdueled Tanaka. (While unrelated, there’s an intriguing story about Sugano always wanting to play for the Giants, when he was drafted by another team, he didn’t sign sitting out until the Giants could draft him)

Sugano’s arsenal is an excellent fit to the Astros Effective Velocity approach to pitching.

As you look at NPB’s Pitch Profiler, you get a similar feel to the BaseballSavant analysis.

While Spin Rate is not shown within NPB Pitch Profiler’s application, MLB highlighted that during the WBC Sugano’s 2,513 RPM on his fastball and 2,859 on his curve, would rank in absolute elite company, stating that only 5 pitchers in the MLB had averaged higher with 200+ pitches.

With elite spin rates and control, the Astros would likely look to have Sugano utilize his 4-seam fastball higher in the zone allowing for increased strike-out rates. Sugano’s Slider has shown to be an elite pitch, tunneling well with his fastball given release and spin axis.

I’m sure there will be a number of teams vying for Sugano’s services. While he won’t be as coveted as some of the others, it’s easy to imagine the Dodgers, Giants, Mariners pursuing based on history, or other large market teams who could pursue as well.

While Sugano’s resume is near perfect, there’s one thing really missing from his legacy, a Championship.

This makes me think that Sugano will prioritize a team that is a legitimate contender for the duration of his contract and, other than the Dodgers, it’s hard to argue there’s any team that provides as consistent an opportunity to climb that final mountain.

What are your thoughts, would you want the Astros to pursue the NPB Legend? What deal would make sense for you? Where would he rank among other MLB veterans with potential elite upside but more risk such as Verlander, Scherzer, Bieber, and Morton?