Josh Hader Sets An Astros Record…and Looking Back At Astros’ Pitchers FIP and x-FIP
I wrote last week about the Astros’ starting pitchers performing exceptionally well since June 1. Today I will continue to discuss some Astros’ pitching topics. And why not? The performance of the Astros’ pitching over the previous 2 – 3 months may be the single biggest factor in the Astros resurgence from a losing team in April and May to a hard charging contender with a 72% probability of making the playoffs (according to Fangraphs).
Josh Hader Set An Astros Record
In the recent Red Sox series Josh Hader recorded his 25th consecutive save. This is the longest consecutive save record in Astros’ history. Brad Lidge previously held the consecutive save record with 24, which he accomplished in the 2005 season which led to the Astros’ first World Series appearance. I’m surprised that the record hasn’t received more attention among Astros’ fans. After all, the Astros have enjoyed some great closers in their history—besides Lidge, they had Billy Wagner, who is hopefully headed for the Hall of Fame, Dave Smith, and Jose Valverde.
Josh Hader got off to a rocky start to the season, blowing his first save opportunity (against the Blue Jays) by giving up a Crawford Box home run with 2 outs in the 9th inning. However, subsequently, he successfully converted his next 25 save opportunities. And so long as the streak remains unbroken, he continues onward with the consecutive saves.
Given that the closer’s main job is to save winning leads in the 9th inning, Hader has turned out to be one of the top closers this year. Among the top 10 save leaders, Hader is the only closer with as few as 1 blown save. In terms of closers, the nature of the beast is that blown saves happen—teams just hope to minimize the number. Consider the Yankees’ closer, Clay Holmes, who also has 25 saves—-but it’s accompanied by 9 blown saves. Or the Orioles’ Craig Kimbrel who has 23 saves—-but also 6 blown saves. You can also look at the advanced stat, Meltdown,which is not limited to save situations. Again, Hader has only one meltdown, which is rare for a late inning reliever. For example, the Orioles’ Kimbrel has 12 meltdowns.
I realize that Hader may seem like a high wire act in some of his save opportunities. But at this point in the season, Hader has been more reliable at saving games than the closers of other contending teams.
Spencer Arrighetti Set an American League Record
In the same Red Sox series in which Hader set his record, rookie starter Spencer Arrighetti also set a record. Arrighetti’s 13 K game marked the first rookie in American League history with at least 12 strikeouts in back-to-back starts. Given Arrighetti’s struggles earlier in the season, I doubt that anyone would have predicted this.
Arrighetti has quietly turned into one of the American League’s top rookie starting pitchers. Among ALrookie starting pitchers, Arrighetti is ranked 3d in f-WAR (1.3) and 1st in K/9 (11.06). Sure, Arrighetti’s ERA is still ugly (5.14), but his x-ERA, FIP, and x-FIP are quite respectable (3.98, 4.18, 4.04,respectively). And that segues into our next topic on the relationship between ERA, x-ERA, FIP, and x-FIP.
Did Astros’ Pitcher FIP And X-FIP Foreshadow Later Regression?
In April when Astros’ pitching appeared to be cratering and the ERAs posted by both relievers and starting pitchers were terribly high, my articles pointed to a mitigating factor—generally speaking the FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and x-FIP (expected FIP) were lower than the very high ERAs. (For example,, this April article.)
Why was this important? Studies have demonstrated that FIP and x-FIP in prior periods are more predictive of future ERA than ERA during those prior periods. In theory the pitchers’ FIP and x-FIP sheds light on what direction we should expect ERA to regress over the course of the season.
I compared the first half FIP and x-FIP (averaged) for selected Astros’ pitchers with their current ERA and x-ERA (averaged). This comparison evaluates whether “regression” was in the direction predicted by FIP and x-FIP. For this comparison, I also include a column for the difference between ERA and FIP/x-FIP during the first half. A positive difference means that ERA is higher than the FIP and a negative difference means that FIP is higher than ERA. I have selected Astros’ pitchers with the largest positive and largest negative differences.
- For the pitchers with ERA Above FIP during the first half, the FIP/x-FIP in the first half was reasonably predictive of the current ERA and x-ERA. For the pitchers with first half ERA below FIP, the current ERA/x-ERA regressed in the direction of the previous FIP/x-FIP. But for these pitchers, a sizeable excess of FIP over ERA/x-ERA remains.
- For the first group of pitchers (Brown, Arrighetti, Hader, and Dubin), the average margin of ERA over FIP/x-FIP in the first half is 0.96 runs. The average margin for current ERA over first half FIP/x-FIP is only 0.15 runs.
- For the second group of pitchers (Blanco, Scott, and Martinez), the average first half margin of ERA less than FIP/x-FIP is -2.08 runs. The average margin for current ERA less than first half FIP/x-FIP is only -1.12 runs.
- If you wanted information on how these pitchers would perform going forward, it was very helpful to compare FIP and x-FIP to the pitchers’ ERA at the time.
- I think there remains some regression risk for starting pitcher Blanco, and relief pitchers Scott and Martinez.
I hope you found this useful.