Team Construction and Astros’ Wins
As we head toward Christmas, let me first tell all of you die hard fans “Happy Holidays.” I hope you have an enjoyable week.
I think it’s about time to dust off the three Astros’ things column. So I will cover some quick Astros topics.
- Where Do The Astros’ Stand Right Now?
So far, the Astros have made the following moves affecting the 2025 roster: they traded Kyle Tucker; acquired Isaac Paredes ; acquired Christian Walker; and likely made a decision not to resign Alex Bregman. I previously evaluated the Astros’ win projection on November 20, “Looking at Astros’ 2025 projections and team WAR.” The analysis is based on Steamer 2025 Astros’ player projections. For this article, I recalculated the projected wins based on the current changes in the roster.
The Nov. 20 article calculated Astros total projected WAR at 92 wins (including Alex Bregman). However, the process of summing players’ projected WAR probably is optimistic, because there is considerable uncertainty around assumptions like injury, playing time, and under or over performance. That is why the playoff odds models are more probabilistic in nature, running simulations thousands of times. For example, the 92 win total assumes that Luis Garcia, Jr. pitches 130 innings. But, since he is returning from TJ surgery, a slower recovery time could result in Garcia pitching a lower inning total, and thereby cause minor league call ups to pitch more innings. Similarly, we haven’t considered the possibility of greater than expected injuries among the position players. I would suggest decreasing the win total by 2 or 3 wins to provide an allowance for uncertainty. So 89 or 90 wins may be a more realistic projection associated with the 92 wins derived from summing WAR.
I assumed that my previous calculation of 14.4 wins from the pitching staff stays the same.
I revised the win projections based on: replacing Bregman with Paredes; giving Christian Walker almost all of the playing time at 1b; removing Kyle Tucker and increasing the OF playing time for McCormick, Trammel, Dezenzo, and Whitcomb.
In particular, I assumed that Chas McCormick gets 90% of the playing time in RF, with Leon and Melton getting the remainder. And LF is based on 10% playing time for Alvarez, with the remainder based on Dezenzo, Whitcomb, and Trammel playing LF. (As in my original analysis, the DH playing time is split 90% Alvarez and 10% Diaz.)
What are the results? The WAR summation is now 90.1 wins. This means that the off-season moves reduced the WAR sum by 1.9 wins. Allowing for uncertainty, a 88 win total may be more realistic.
The WAR total for the OF would be worse, but for the fact that the projection foresees some beneficial regression for McCormick and Meyers (102 and 98 wRC+ respectively). If instead both revert to 2024 offensive stats, the win total might be closer to the mid-80s. Similarly, the projections believe that Dezenzo and Whitcomb could produce at almost an average rate of offense (96 and 91 wRC+ respectively). But given their lack of experience, this assumption is quite uncertain.
Do the Astros need to acquire outfielders from the Free Agent market? Yes. Even acquiring lower cost OF free agents of the Heyward/Gamel/Perralta variety could help bridge the 1.9 win deficit created by Astros’ off-season moves. In addition, such an addition would provide a hedge for the considerable uncertainty regarding the OF composition. Finally, the Astros are very RHB oriented and need an additional LHB.
An Astros win projection of 88 – 90 wins puts the Astros on the razor’s edge of winning the division. Dan Symborski recently wrote that the ZIPS model would project Seattle at 85 – 90 wins and the Rangers at 80 – 85 wins. And his observation was prior to the Lowe and Pederson transactions, which might raise the Texas projection somewhat. My point is that the Astros must be concerned about every single win derived from the team construction if they want to repeat as AL West champions.
2. Astros Hope to Visit the Crawford Boxes More Frequently.
It’s no secret that new 3d baseman Isaac Paredes has a swing which should benefit from playing in the Astros’ home park. He has the third highest pull percentage in the majors. Jose Altuve is first in pull percentage. As Fangraphs stated, “over the past two seasons, Paredes has by far the highest pull rate on fly balls in the majors, and the second-highest fly ball rate on pull-side batted balls.” The Astros hope that home runs will land in the short porch that is the Crawford Boxes.
Steamer reflects Paredes’ projection as an Astros hitter. He is projected to hit 25 HRs, 26 doubles, and a 126 wRC+. He is projected to walk 71 times. Both his walks and wRC+ are projected to rank second on the team behind Yordan Alvarez.
Christian Walker is more of a spray hitter that Paredes, but when he pulls the ball, he has a high fly ball rate. Fangraphs characterizes Walker’s hitting: “In 2024, Walker was 25th out of 129 qualified hitters in HardHit%, 24th (in ascending order) in GB/FB ratio, and 48th in pull rate. He strikes out a lot and generally doesn’t put up a huge BABIP, but when Walker puts the ball in play, he puts it where it’s going to do damage.”
The article provides an overlay of Walker’s spray chart to the dimensions of the Astros’ home park, and concludes, “Seems like Walker could do pretty well there.”
Fangraphs
3. Wait…what?
In perusing the recent chat session for Fangraphs’ prospect maven Eric Longenhagen, I ran across a surprising nugget. The question and comment:
Fangraphs 12/20/24
If Jacob Melton has a break out in the major leagues this season that would be both a pleasant surprise and fortuitous. Honestly, it probably won’t happen. But if he gets off to a tremendous start in AAA and then continues his strong pace as an Astros’ call up, it would bolster an Astros’ weakness.
Steamer’s projection for Melton is not very good (wRC+ 84). But he is young and still becoming accustomed to AAA pitching. The potential exists for Melton to produce at a useful level in the majors at some point this season.