After many months of white-knuckle baseball and many projections that had the Astros playing meaningful baseball to the bitter end, the team has nothing to play for. They are the 3-seed. They will play the third wild card team, best two out of three, next Tuesday through Thursday. But that doesn’t mean that players don’t have something to show. A few storylines:
WHO PITCHES THE NEXT 33-36 INNINGS?
Kikuchi is on the bump tonight, and Brown and Valdez will be shelved until next Tuesday and Wednesday (unless Kikuchi makes the Wednesday start). Brown could in theory go 5 IP on Saturday and be on 4 days rest again on Thursday, but that’s not going to happen, given he’s already thrown 170 IP and may have another 6 starts if the Astros go deep. He threw 162.2 IP last year, including playoffs. The problem is that the rest of the staff isn’t exactly primed to finish things out. Arrighetti and Blanco have both blown through innings limits and would presumably be locks for long relief in the Wild Card Series.
One option would be a Blanco/Arrighetti tandem start on Friday. They each throw 60 pitches or roughly 3-4 IP. Then JV goes Saturday to give Brown and Espada one last glimpse (and maybe get JV a 5 IP win; he’s had one win in four months). Then Sunday have Dubin start a bullpen game.
I doubt the Astros (or the Guardians) show much this weekend, given they might meet in two Saturdays in the DS. Cleveland is 1.5 GB for the two seed.
SPEAKING OF THE BULLPEN
Here’s the pecking order of guys that Espada trusts: 1-2: Hader and Abreu; 3: Pressly 4. Neris? 5-7: ??? None of these guys have taken the reins. Ort looked awesome until about three weeks ago. King’s ERA and WHIP have quadrupled and tripled from August to September. Ferguson, meanwhile, has allowed 15 baserunners in 8.2 September innings. Neris has three holds and a save this month, but his September ERA is 4.22 and he’s allowed runs in his last two appearances. Brown seems uninterested in giving Whitley another test drive.
Odds are long that the Astros will be able to win more than a series with just six or seven pitchers. What’s the hierarchy of trust and who deserves more trust? If Kikuchi is has thrown 108 pitches through 5 IP and Abreu and Pressly have thrown two consecutive days, what’s the bridge to Hader? Do you trust Blanco or Arrighetti to be 2017 Brad Peacock redivivus? I’d like to see Ort and King especially help their cause this weekend, as I think Ort’s bb/k numbers show more promise for October.
CAN CHAS GET ON THE 26-MAN?
I’m not going to mince words. I love Chas. I think he deserves more credit for the team’s success from 2021-23. He did more than make a great catch against the fence in Philly in 2022. He also took Cole deep in Yankee Stadium in the 2022 CS, put up 7.6 fWAR over three seasons despite never playing more than 119 games, and was an above average hitter in both 2022 and 2023 postseasons (112 and 113 wRC+), when many decent hitters wilt. I’d bet on Chas in 2025. Can he do enough this weekend to convince Brown and Espada to put him on the playoff roster? With Gamel out, and Yordan gimpy, it’s a much easier decision. In addition, Over the last three months, Meyers’ highest monthly OPS is .568. He’s hitting .149 this month. He looked like a pitcher hitting against Miller on Monday. Meyer’s OPS against Detroit this year is .500, and against KC it’s .139 (not a typo).
Yordan almost certainly serves as DH the entire playoffs. That means Tucker in RF, and some combination of Heyward/Meyers/Dubon/Chas in the other two spots (this was your year, Pedro Leon!) We should all be watching Chas in Cleveland.