Is 2025 the start of re-building, or just re-loading?
Clearly, the Astros have entered a new era. The Age of Championship Dominance is over. The Age of Pretty Good has begun. The question is, can the Astros go all the way as a merely good team, as other teams have done in the recent past, sometimes at the Astros’ expense?
Since 2017, the Astros’ Age of Championship Dominance was always anchored by a Core Four (and sometimes five), whether it be Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Alex Bregman or, more recently, Altuve, Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker.
The Core Four is now down to two, Altuve and Alvarez, and that’s pretty average. And Altuve is probably on the downside of his career. Can newly acquired Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker make up for the losses of Bregman and Tucker? Probably not fully, although the Tucker trade will most likely pay big dividends in the long run.
There are other questions surrounding this iteration of the Astros. Jose Altuve is barely a viable second baseman at this point in his career and will move to left field. Is he a viable outfielder? And can the batting order survive the predictable lack of production from outfielders Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, and whoever plays second base? Is Cam Smith ready for the big-time, or was his Spring success a mirage?
Starting pitching depth is thin, especially if Ronel Blanco continues into the regular season with the consistently bad performances he put up all Spring. Plus, the expected return of Luis Garcia, originally anticipated last August, is delayed yet again. But the Astros Nerd Cave has a way of finding surprising “next men up.”
Ryan Pressly is gone from the bullpen, leaving only two proven bullpen arms, Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader. But “next men up” are already making their case in Spring Training, and what other teams have a fully formed bullpen on Opening Day?
On the plus side, the Astros’ one and two starters, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, are potentially as good a tandem as there is, and if Spencer Arrighetti continues to pitch as well as he did at the end of 2024, this starting three will be formidable. Hopefully, Hayden Wesneski, acquired from the Cubs, will be a suitable fourth/fifth starter. And just maybe he could even improve on past performances, ala Yusei Kikuchi and many other pitchers who came into the Astros coaching orbit. If Blanco turns out to be a one-season wonder, Ryan Gusto could fill the Cinderella role that Blanco filled last year. Lance McCullers is making a comeback, but I’ll believe that when I see it.
If Cam Smith, acquired in the Tucker trade and surprisingly elevated to a starting role despite almost no minor league experience, is even nearly as good as he has flashed this Spring, he could be a major X factor and could make the Tucker trade a winner in season 1 of that trade. But I don’t get overly excited by rookies mashing in Spring Training. This move could hinder the rookie’s development. Time will tell.
The projections services say the AL West is a tight race. The Mariners, Rangers, and Astros are all within about three games of one another in various orders, depending on who you consult, each winning somewhere in the vicinity of 85 games.
Three is the margin of error in political polling, and I say it is the margin of error in baseball forecasting as well. Hence, the Age of Astros Dominance is over. The age of pretty good has begun. Who wins the AL West will depend on luck factors, especially injuries, and unforeseeable X factors.
Bilbos prediction:
Besides the Astros’ loss of offensive firepower, the AL West will be much tougher. Even the A’s could surprise and Mike Trout might stay healthy for the Angels. Plus, both the Mariners and Rangers under-performed offensively last year and I expect positive regression from both. The Rangers clearly suffered from post-World-Series hangover syndrome and have Jacob De Grom returning. The Astros won 88 games last year but did endure more than their share of injuries. For the Astros to win the division this year, everything has to go right. They seldom do.
AL West Standing: 3rd
Record: 84-78
No playoffs (See caveats above)
Clack prediction:
The AL West is more difficult to predict this season than any previous season I have participated in the Starting Nine. I will predict that the Astros edge out the Rangers (2d) and Mariners (3d) as champion with something like 89 or 90 wins. That would put the Astros in the ALDS or WC round, depending on their record. Now it’s probably equally plausible that the Astros don’t win the championship and take a Wild Card playoff position. If you look at the PECOTA projections, it’s plausible that the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers all make the playoffs (>60% playoff odds for each team). I picked the Astros because I think Paredes and Walker will find Daikin Park to their liking, and the starting rotation will be a team strength. Nobody will run away with the AL West. The Mariners will have great pitching, and the Rangers will have great offense, but both teams will struggle at times with the other half of the game. I think the A’s are intriguing and could get 80 wins if all goes well for them, but in the end their starting pitching isn’t good enough. I like many of the additions made by the Angels, but I have been burned many times in the past predicting a breakout season for LAA—-so I’ll just say, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
Cody’s prediction:
I can’t help but feel that 2025 is a transition season for the Astros. Familiar faces are increasingly scarce. Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Ryan Pressly now reside with different teams. Payroll remains bloated. Jose Altuve is in left field, for crying out loud. This is possibly, even likely, Framber Valdez’s last season in Houston. But, in spite of all the upheaval, this roster projects as a possible contender in the AL West. Make no mistake, though, this team isn’t rooted in a World Series-or-bust mindset any longer. They are now in the simply good category, which, in today’s postseason environment, could still be enough to qualify for October baseball.
Dana Brown did well enough to acquire some cost-controlled talent for Tucker before he departed in free agency next winter if that was the goal. Of course, trading Tucker even with a year of club control lowers the ceiling for 2025. That said, Cam Smith is possibly set to make an impact on the roster this season. Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski help shore up depth at third base and the pitching staff, respectively. Christian Walker solidifies first base for arguably the first time since 2021. The dynamics of the lineup have changed, and I am curious to see how it plays out. The outfield, in particular, will be a must-watch, no matter the end result.
The starting rotation ought to remain a net positive for the Astros. Hunter Brown’s continued development is of paramount importance to this club’s chances of success, both in the short- and long-term. The bullpen, however, could cause some heartburn. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu form a formidable one-two punch in the late innings, but trading Pressly for essentially salary relief leaves this unit short on proven experience. In fact, the lack of depth was enough to give Rafael Montero and his $11.5 million salary one more chance to provide something of value.
The AL West is projected to be a three-team race between the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers, at least according to the projections. Again, Houston has enough here to win the division crown for the eighth time in nine seasons. They can also fail to meet expectations and finish around .500. Both outcomes wouldn’t shock me. But it could be a close race in the division, and there is no telling what may happen if or when postseason baseball arrives for this team.
AL West Standing: 1st – until proven otherwise
Record: 89-73
Playoffs: Lose in the Divisional Series
Theo’s prediction:
It’s difficult to not feel like the 2025 Astros are worse on paper than the 2024 Astros. This was the most disappointing offseason for the team in recent memory, honestly probably since the mid-2000s? (Those early 2010 teams were bad, but most of the disappointment with them came from during the season rather than in between them.)
Trading Kyle Tucker made sense, but losing him a year before free agency made it sting more than other homegrown stars like Carlos Correa and George Springer actually leaving as free agents; it was like there was time to prepare yourself mentally with those, while this happened relatively all at once. Although speaking of that, we had another one of those cases in Alex Bregman leaving, but with the additional frustration of a brief window where it seemed like Houston might somehow manage to bring him back on a short deal, hope that collapsed pretty rapidly. Ryan Pressly was dealt out, and Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander signed elsewhere, all of which make sense in isolation but do bring back stark concerns of just how thin the pitching staff felt at times last year. Really, given the constant rumors swirling around Framber Valdez, it feels kind of shocking that there weren’t even more high-profile departures.
But on further reflection, there were some interesting additions. I keep forgetting that the team signed Christian Walker, since bringing in a big free agent clashed with the “everyone is leaving” vibes emanating the rest of the winter. Really, things weren’t nearly as dire as they felt at times. Isaac Paredes and Brendan Rodgers feel like they could be surprisingly solid pieces of a team this year (much has already been said about Paredes being a good fit for not-Minute Maid Park, and I feel like the Astros’ development side might be able to get more out of Rodgers than the Rockies’), while Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski feel like they could be longer-term pieces who still have a chance to make a big impact this year.
I keep coming back to that opening thought, “the 2025 Astros feel worse on paper than the 2024 Astros did”… because ultimately, the Actual 2024 Astros also felt worse than the On-Paper 2024 Astros. The team failed to get even a dead-cat bounce out of Jose Abreu, Kyle Tucker missed over half of the season, Chas McCormick completely collapsed, the rotation often felt like it was scrambling just to find arms, that much-hyped bullpen often felt like less than the sum of its parts, and they even under-performed their Expected Won-Loss record.
It’s entirely possible (unlikely, but possible) that this team is actually improved, if Walker is a big enough upgrade, the outfield situation gets solved (whether by Jose Altuve adjusting smoothly, Cam Smith forcing a promotion, Chas rebounding, or something else), Framber or Yordan (or both) has an Awards-level year, Hunter Brown and/or Spencer Arrighetti takes a big step forward, Lance McCullers miraculously returns… you don’t even need all of those things happening together, just a few!
But even if they aren’t better, it’s also possible they just aren’t worse than 2024, whether that’s because all the new guys cancel out the departures or just because they kept things close enough and got some better luck this time around. I’m still nervous about injuries decimating the pitching staff again, but last year already felt pretty close to a worst-case scenario. Maybe it will happen again, but they did still overcome it last year. At least it would be familiar territory this time, I guess?
Ultimately, I think the bigger issue is the rest of the division around them. The Rangers and Mariners also had bad luck last year and less-than-ideal offseasons, but they both also still have a lot of upside. I’m not sure that the Astros can bet on everybody else underperforming their ceiling yet again. But the rest of the AL still looks uneven, so I think there’s still a road to the postseason, even if it isn’t necessarily through the division title.
Prediction: 88-74, 2nd in AL West
Playoffs: Make it in as a Wild Card, advance to the ALCS
Vballretired’s Prediction:
More than maybe any other season, the key for the Astros will be the health of their starting pitchers. It’s a unique pitching staff to be sure. If everything breaks right, they could end up with as many as seven or eight legitimate starting pitchers. If things break wrong they could end up with only two or three. I usually peg these things in the middle and settle on four or five bankable starters. Memorial Day is usually the time when rosters start settling and Joe Espada can start zeroing in on what his everyday lineup should look like. It’s also the time where we will know if Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia will offer anything or if they will be ghosts yet again.
Oddly enough, I think this team hits more than it did last year. There are fewer holes in the lineup if we assume that everyone is healthy and even the depth seems more substantial than in seasons past. Anyone who has known me long enough knows I ALWAYS worry about hitting first, but I’m not so concerned about that this time around.
AL West Standing: 1st
Record: 90-72
Playoffs: Advance to ALCS and lose to the AL East champions
Kevin’s “Prediction:”
Baseball is baseball, and that’s good enough most of the time.
Aside from that, it’s not always puppies and rainbows. Houston is not a sub-.500 team yet, and may still have the keys to the division. I have a sneaking suspicion that the A’s will be better than expected (86 wins imo), but Houston is going to finish at 90-72 and win the division again. The Rangers (85 wins), Mariners (84 wins), and Angels (38 wins) bring up the rear. Will Houston win the World Series? Stranger things have happened, but I’m going to err on the side of sanity and predict a return to the ALCS.
l4blitzer’s Prediction:
This might be the strangest season to try to predict for the Astros in a decade. Since 2015, it has been playoffs or bust, and since 2017, World Series or bust. All prior off-season and in-season moves centered on “win big and win now”. Two Championships, four AL Pennants, and seven AL West Division titles since 2017…yeah, it worked. Yet, this iteration of the Astros has such a different feel. Most of the big names that led that run have moved on to different teams, and this past off-season, the team made moves not so much for 2025 but for seasons beyond. The Astros went big on the payroll last season, but with only a mere Wild Card appearance, that investment did not pay off. Not that the Astros are bereft of talent, but it is hard to call them the title contender of the past. It seems clear that the team will not exceed the tax line this season, no matter the in-season results.
Yet, the AL lacks that dominant team. Outcomes from Houston missing the playoffs with a losing record to clinching its fifth AL pennant in nine years are all legitimately in play. The AL West will be tough but not insurmountable. Yet, a lot has to go right. The top of the order must hit and stay healthy. Houston’s team defense must improve, especially as Altuve adjusts to life in the outfield. The rotation can’t afford more injury attrition and some of those arms lost last season must return to form. The med staff is under the microscope big time, as a lot of Houston’s success in 2025 rests on the return of McCullers, Garcia, Javier, etc. McCullers may actually pitch this season, but Garica…yeah, the questions on the med staff remain. Going to be an interesting season, even if not as successful as in years past.
Record projection: 85-77 (with a margin of +3 wins/-5 losses)
AL West finish: 2nd (but with a probable playoff spot).
Astrosfaninva:
The recent run of success has spoiled us fans. Last year’s team was Houston’s worst team in almost a decade, yet they still won the division and had a competitive playoff series. There are many reasons to think the Astros can repeat what they did in 2024. Yes, they lost Tucker, but he was hurt most of last season anyway, and the addition of Walker and Paredes may balance out the loss. Also, McCormick is a better player than he showed in 2024, I suspect he will be a solid everyday player in 2025.
The big X-factor will be starting to pitch; Valdez and Brown will be a good 1-2 punch, but there is not much depth after that. Blanco was good in 2024, but it is possible that it was a fluke. Lance McCullers has looked good this spring, but he is delusional if he thinks he will ever pitch 110+ innings in a season again. Luis Garcia seems to be going down the Astros’ injury hole with no end in sight. Spencer Arrighetti had a great end to his rookie season, but I suspect his ceiling is a 5th starter.
Overall, the team will score about the same number of runs in 2025, but the pitching will be substantially worse. Record: 86-76. AL West finish: 2nd.
Seth’s Prediction:
While I, along with everyone else, is hurt by the departures of Bregman and Tucker, I don’t think it will be as dreadful as other writers are thinking it will be to us. I think with the help of newcomer Cam Smith and his red-hot bat to put in Tucker’s spot in the outfield and with the new additions to the team like Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, I think this team will, offensively, be in a much better spot than most think for them. Having guys like Altuve, Yordan and Diaz at the top of any lineup is deadly, but when you add the other pieces that this team has, I think there is a good chance for another division title. That also doesn’t mean there are no holes in the team on the batting side. Meyers as a starting center fielder, just like last year, can only last so long for them.
On the pitching side, the team should feel good about their rotation, especially the top. Framber and Brown are touted to be one of the best one-two combos in baseball in 2025 as long as they can both control certain aspects of their game. For Framber, it is getting back to getting soft contact and getting balls on the ground, and for Brown, is it about getting more of his strikeout stuff for strikes. Behind those two, any number of guys can start. Arrighetti, Blonco, Javier and Wesneski all are arms that can be thrown out to make starts. The bullpen may be the biggest problem for the team. With Hader and Abreu as the two main arms leading the way, the rest of the pen is made up of arms that are either aged or inexperienced. Forrest Whitley could be an arm that sees a lot of action for the team this year in a long relief role.
Overall record: 91-71; Run Differential: +140s; AL West Finish: 1st; Lose in ALCS to Yankees
Exile’s Prediction
Hope always springs eternal in March. Dana Brown has assembled a team with perhaps the worst outfield defense in the majors and with no thought of lineup balance. Everyone is right-handed except Yordan. Our starting right-fielder has never played the position and has 32 games of minor-league experience. Luis Garcia has experienced a setback, Whitley is injured again, and only three relievers have any experience in high-leverage situations. It could all work out fantastically, and the Astros could win 92 games. Whatever the under is, I’ll take it. I think they start slow, none of the young guys (Dezenzo, Smith, Melton) pop, and Framber gets dealt in July, Chas is broken for another year, and Dubon, Altuve, and Y Diaz continue to hack away at the first pitch in every big situation: 80-82. Let’s keep Altuve on track for 3000 hits and move on from the Dana Brown experience in October.
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