Opening Day is tomorrow. Here’s Part Three of the Starting Nine’s 2024 analysis and predictions
Astros fan in VA (Daniel May)
The 2023 Astros never really got it together. Just when it felt like the team turned a corner, they suffered another setback. In 2024, I expect the team to be slightly better for three main reasons.
- Maldy is no longer the starting catcher.
Swapping out a historically bad catcher for an above-average one (Y. Diaz) should result in a few extra wins in 2024. Plus, the Astros signed backup catcher Victor Caratini this offseason, so the team should have plenty of depth behind the dish this season.
2. Dusty Baker is no longer the manager.
Over the course of a full 162, it is not hard to envision how swapping out Baker for Espada could result in at least 2-3 extra wins.
After Dusty was ejected from game 5 of the ALCS, Joe Espada made a couple of sound moves that put them in a position to win the game. Dusty never used the bench like that, and he consistently made questionable personnel decisions throughout his tenure in Houston (i.e. never giving Chas a full season’s worth of At-Bats)
3. Jose Altuve should be healthier.
2023 was the first full season Jose didn’t reach 500 PAs in his career. Although Altuve is getting older, the injuries he suffered were not the lingering type, so I fully expect him to get to the plate over 600 times in 2024. An extra 200 at bats from Altuve probably means an extra 2 wins for the Astros.
Projection: 94 wins, a division title, and after that who knows? The playoffs are a crapshoot.
X-factor:
Houston does not have a lot of starting pitching depth. Verlander is old, and Valdez and Javier are coming off down seasons. Even if Hunter Brown takes a big step forward, which I think he will, the Astros still have a lot of question marks going into the season. I wish the team picked up a Kyle Gibson type this winter, but maybe Dana Brown sees something in one of our young pitchers.
L4blitzer
In one respect, there is a certain degree of consistency with the Houston Astros since they went on this dominant run (circa 2017). Especially since 2020, the Astros have done the following every year:
- Start the season as one of the top favorites to win the World Series
- Start the season looking to replace key pieces from previous runs and/or spending a fair amount of time discussing the status of a key piece in a contract year.
- Start the season at least 7-9, or, if stretching back to 2019, start the season at some point 2 games under .500
- Have at least one big winning streak (8+ games) to shake off the doldrums in every full season.
- Win the AL West in every full season, even if the margin of victory is not certain.
- Win in the ALDS
- Get to the ALCS
Hard to be more consistent in MLB than Houston. Yet, there is a sense that perhaps the Astros may finally be coming to the end of their run, especially with this cast. Altuve was re-signed, but Bregman and Verlander (part deux) may be playing their last seasons with Houston. Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez are slated for free agency in 2025. The loss of all the previous stars (Morton, Keuchel, Cole, Springer, Correa) has mainly been offset by a strong farm/development system, but perhaps the ability to reload is finally diminishing. The AL West, primarily the playpen/postseason warm-up room for the Astros, is shaping up to be a real Triple Threat match, with Arlington and Seattle eager and actually able to take the division.
Yet, Houston is still Houston. Last ride or not, if this team can stay healthy and avoid too many prolonged slumps from key players at the same time, it should be right back in the mix. With the expanded postseason, the Astros should likely be a participant once again, and as always, they are the team you do NOT want to see if you hope to get to the championship. Of course, it would help if Houston could avoid that minor detail of sucking severe [expletive deleted] at home. Seriously, we will solve the mysteries of Amelia Earhart and the Lost Colony of Roanoke before we ever truly understand how Houston decided after August 2023 that Minute Maid Park was the worst place in the world for them to play.
Prediction: What does it say about the state of the Astros that last season, we considered it one of the worst Astros teams of late, and they were still one game away from another World Series date? In theory, Houston should be better, but there is so much that they don’t control (mainly the rise in capabilities of their division rivals Seattle and Arlington). It would not be surprising to see Houston start out 7-9 (again), especially with all the injuries to the starting rotation. but figure on Houston still winning more than they lose. They go 90-72 (+/- 5 wins) and are at least in the playoffs.
X-Factor: Framber Valdez. Honestly, you could name any of the starting pitchers on the roster, injured or not, but of all the pitchers on the roster, Valdez may hold the key to everything. If he can pitch like he did in 2020, 2022, and the first part of 2023, then Houston should be in very good shape. Yet, if he reverts to when his first name was a verb associated with inconsistency, and he can’t recapture his ace form, then Houston is going to have that much more difficulty getting back to the ALCS. With Houston limited in MLB-ready prospects, trade options, and salary flexibility, the current roster is going to have to play up to potential, and perhaps no one is under more pressure to bounce back than Valdez.