This is Part II of the Crawfish Boxes’ analysis, commentary, and predictions of the upcoming 2024 AStros season.
Exile in Saint Louis
I’m always bullish on the Astros and optimistic this time of year. I do think the Astros stumble badly out of the gate. They lose OD for the first time in forever. Honestly, I’d take 9-11 after 20. But they will beat up on the A’s and Angels, get their rotation right, and pound the league with a healthy Altuve, a semi-rejuvenated Abreu, and a platoon of Diaz and Caratini. Have I mentioned Jeremy Pena?
Much talk has been made of Jake Meyers “getting the starting job.” In reality, it’s a 3⁄4 job at best. Yordan plays some LF, Chas plays some CF, and Dubon gets a healthy number of starts there. I think we grow to love Caratini and that Chas and/or Diaz push for the #5 slot in the lineup because they’re just that good.
Long relief will be important at the beginning of the season against some of the stronger teams and lineups. Montero, Seth Martinez, Bielak, and eventually Blanco have a chance to be heroes of they can give the team length and innings. The back end should shorten games.
Projection: 94 wins; AL West Champs
X-Factor: midseason call-ups. Not just McCullers and Garcia, but Loperfido, Will Wagner, and some combo of Kouba, Gordon, and Arrighetti. Maybe even Ryan Gusto. They will be put into action, inject excitement into the Astros, generate at least one comment every time they do something good to the effect of those prospect evaluators always underrate us, and maybe even become an October legend like Pena in 2022.
kjkraczkowski
This time last year, I was spouting off about four aces in the rotation, predicting multiple Cy Young Awards for Cristian Javier, maybe as many as eight guys with 30+ home runs, and prognosticating a 112-win season. Like Exile, I’m usually bullish about my team, but maybe this time, I’ll employ just a little bit of caution. I’m not calling on the panic brigade just yet, but the Pollyanna patrol needs to stay home as well.
Even attempting to be bearish seems a bit difficult. The rotation, although not as healthy as we’d like, does go nine-deep when you include all the guys who should make it back at some point this season (maybe more). The bullpen features a freakish 7-8-9 in Abreu-Pressly-Hader that rivals (and could possibly surpass, don’t @ me) Lidge-Dotel-Wagner. The lineup employs seven players who could breach 30 home runs (Yanier Diaz, José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Chas McCormick). Jake Meyers and Jeremy Peña round out the starting nine, and the bench will feature, at a minimum Gold Glover Mauricio Dubón and vast improvement Victor Caratini.
Projection: Going by my own WAR calculations, which aren’t reliant on any webpage other than my Google sheet with a bunch of my homegrown formulas (thank you, Everystros), I’m counting on a 50-WAR season from the assorted bunch that makes up Houston’s roster. Some more (Yordan, King Tuck, Framber, Bregman), and some less (no need to point fingers). That translates to a 98-win season and another AL West title. So, even being a pessimist, I’m saying 98 wins. It’s a good thing I don’t gamble.
X-Factor: Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier. Both underwhelmed last year after putting together an impressive run in 2022, and both are due for a serious bounce-back campaign. Spencer Arrighetti and Forrest Whitley could take some turns as well. Really though, who predicted J.P. France would be the most impressive rookie in the rotation last season? Nobody, that’s who. It really goes to show that anyone in the system could somehow surprise everyone. Someone that we haven’t noticed — could A.J. Blubaugh bust our expectations and arrive a year or two early? All that to say this: the X-factor is going to be a pitcher (or four).