“What’ll it be like if the Astros don’t win the AL West? I guess we’ll never know.”
The following are the comments, analyses, and predictions by the staff of The Crawfish Boxes for the Astros 2024 season. This is Part I of a four-part series.
Bilbos
Was the Astros’ 2023 season a glass half-empty? Or half full? They were one game from facing the Arizona Diamondbacks in the World Series. And a game or two from not making the playoffs at all.
Can the Astros improve on their 90-win season of 2023, their worst full-season since 2016? And how good will they have to be to make their record-tying eighth straight Championship Series appearance?
The most current Fangraphs Depth Chart rankings have the Astros with the best record in the AL with, again, 90 wins, just ahead of the Yankees (88), Rays (86), Mariners (85), and last year’s champions and division rivals, the Rangers, down to 82.
Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota likes the Astros a little better — 95 wins, again #1 in the AL. Likewise, the Astros are projected to have the best chance in the AL to make the playoffs: 93.9%.
So why do so many Astros fans feel like the streak of ALCS appearances is about to end? After all, this is pretty much the same Astros team that Houston fielded last year. And so much went wrong. Long stints on the IL by superstars Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez; Jose Abreu playing hurt for over half the season and not performing above replacement level until the end of the season.
Plus, subpar second-half performances by starting pitchers. And that’s not including injuries to pitching cogs Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia.
Which leads us to why there are doubts about the 2024 Astros. Of course, injuries are the X factor for any team, but the Astros start the season with… yes…Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia on the IL. The latter two are not scheduled to return until the end of the season—if we’re lucky. Plus, Justin Verlander, now 41, is probably not pitching until the end of April at the earliest.
That leaves a paper-thin projected Opening Day starting rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P France, and Ronel Blanco. The first three, Valdez, Javier, and Brown, had second-half ERAs of 4.66, 4.84, and 6.57, respectively.
If that’s how they pitch this year, the two overachieving journeymen. France and Blanco will have to clean up—at least until the cavalry arrive later in the season. On the plus side, a return to health of the key starters mentioned above could help the Astros be at their strongest for the stretch run and playoffs.
Thankfully, projections expect positive regression from the top three of the rotation. And although there are doubts about the rest of the relief corps, the back end of the bullpen is Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, and newly acquired all-world super-closer Josh Hader. Nuff said. But anyway, how good does the pitching have to be if the lineup hits even nearly as well as it can?
Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman, 1-4 in some kind of order, are a true killers’ row, and all look ready to slug as the season begins. We hope, and this writer expects, that the slugging second-half Jose Abreu from last year is the edition we get in 2024. And Yainer Diaz should add firepower as well, replacing Martin Maldonado at catcher.
The team has committed to Jake Meyers as the starting center fielder, hoping he fulfills the promise he showed in 2021 before his ALDS shoulder injury. If he should falter, Mauricio Dubon, coming off a surprisingly strong 2023 season, was red-hot this Spring. And the 2023 Astros Minor Leaguer of the Year, Joey Loperfido, had one of the strongest Springs of any Astro this March.
Finally, the Astros have a new manager, Joe Espada. Dusty Baker hung two AL pennants and brought a World Series trophy to Houston. We love you, Dusty. But in this writer’s opinion, a return to a more analytic approach to team management under Espada should be worth a couple of wins over the course of the season.
Projection: 92 Wins. First place AL West.
X-Factor: Yordan Alvarez hits .300+ with 45 home runs and wins AL MVP. Kyle Tucker is in the top five in MVP voting, making them the most formidable lefty duo since Ruth/Gehrig.
Clack
The projection systems all see the Astros’ repeating success in 2024. The Astros’ starting lineup is one of the best in baseball. And the starting pitching may not be as strong as 2022, but there are enough guys in the rotation with a track record of success to get it done again.
If we look toward the horizon, maybe this is the final shot at being this good. Is it Bregman’s last season with the Astros? Will Tucker leave the system in two years? We don’t know the answers, and I suppose it’s speculation for another day. But the Astros’ strength is its starting lineup, and those losses would weaken this advantage. (I’m not saying the Astros will be a bad team in 2025, but just that the team’s days as a “favorite” in the AL West may be numbered, depending on whether the core stays together.)
There are still some question marks for this season, but no more than other contending teams. We know we have to watch the rotation issues. Do the Astros have sufficient starting pitcher depth? Will Verlander’s age make him prone to injury? Will the real Framber Valdez stand up? Will the promising talent of Javier and Brown come through in 2024? Will Lance McCuller, Jr. and Luis Garcia overcome injury issues and provide meaningful innings in August/September?
Given the Astros’ history in this era, I’m not betting against the Astros’ rotation. They will find a way to bandage up the problem areas as they develop. I admit to some skepticism that Valdez will be the ace who carries the staff—-but all we need is the “good” Valdez and not the peak Valdez. Verlander is a pro’s pro who will be the rotation’s craftsman. I think the odds are that Javier returns closer to his 2022 form than the 2023 hiccup. The Astros need Hunter Brown to step up and improve. I like both his makeup and his talent, and I think he will. Despite the potential for injuries, the Astros will mix and match Urquidy, France, and Blanco at the bottom of the rotation. I also feel like there is a pretty fair chance that one of the AAA pitchers will show their own promise with spot starts in 2024.
My guess is that one of McCullers or Garcia will prove to be effective in August/September. They will be competing to make the post-season rotation, and the odds are that one of them will be successful.
As for the starting lineup, it’s good—though the depth may be more questionable. Jake Meyers and Jeremy Pena possibly should be considered weak spots. But Meyers looks like a new man this spring, and Pena is hammering out adjustments to his swing. If Meyers gets off to a poor start to this season, he may need to look over his shoulder at Loperfido in AAA. As for Pena, we will need patience. Overhauling the swing can take time before the results show up. And Mauricio Dubon is a high-quality backup who continues to impress.
I expect Jose Abreu to be solid but not spectacular. Yainer Diaz may regress this season—probably not to the offensive stats we saw in 2023—but still be productive. I wouldn’t be surprised if Caratini becomes Verlander and Valdez’s new favorite catcher. Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, and Alvarez will continue as the scary core of the offense.
I’m not really worried by the bullpen after the acquisition of Hader. If there is weakness in the middle relief, the team can continue mixing and matching until they find the right solution.
I expect the Astros to struggle a bit during the tough schedule in the first 20 days of the season. Fans may panic, but this team will be capable of going on nice win streaks.
Projection: 95 wins and 1st place in the AL West, barely beating out the Mariners and their strong pitching staff. The Rangers will find out that the W/L record of the World Series champion almost always regresses.
X-Factor: It’s a new season, and the Astros will forget the mental baggage of “home field disadvantage.” If the Astros can achieve a reasonable Minute Maid Park W/L record—similar to the typical results of the last five years—it will make a big difference.