There are multiple options for the Houston season, but that doesn’t mean they are good ones.
If you are a Houston Astros fan, April 2024 may be the longest month in the history of history. Even for a team that has started the previous 5 seasons under .500, a 7-19 record is not what anyone ever saw. The team has already been swept more times (4) than series won (2). The problems with this squad are numerous and span all facets of the game. Even the national media is starting to take notice of the rough fortunes of the once-dominant to Astros.
Championships are not won in April, but seasons can be lost in that time. Houston hasn’t started this badly since 1969 (they did manage to finish that season at .500). Many will point to the 2005 season, when an Astros team that came off a painful Game 7 LCS loss opened the season as legitimate World Series contenders, only to fall to a 15-30 start. They would rebound to capture the NL pennant. At present the Astros’ cause is helped by the expanded playoffs, although it is more likely that they will enter having to play in the Wild Card round, should they make it that far.
Coming into this season, there was a sense that the current run with this cast and crew was closer to the end. A 7-year run that includes 4 Pennants and 2 World Series would be the envy of any an organization.
Yet, this team was positioning itself to make one last run, allowing its salary to balloon to higher taxable levels and sacrificing some prospects for win-now trades. Opening 7-19 was not part of that script. Yet, this is the current situation the Astros face.
What road do the Astros take from here?
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Road A: Hold the line
Why? No one has completely separated themselves from the AL West, and it is early. Verlander is returning from an injury, Blanco has been a revelation as a starter and Javier and Valdez should be back soon. The bullpen is showing signs of stabilizing after a rocky start. The offense is hitting well, but just unfortunate when getting runs in, which can quickly change.
TheSometimes, a team’s fortune can turn for the better on an unforeseen play. The talent is there to overcome this shortfall. More reinforcements should bolster the roster when Garcia, Urquidy and McCullers make their returns post-All Star Break, thus allowing for some of the overmatched starters to go back to solidifying the bullpen. 1B is a major problem, but this team has won even with one of its fielding positions being a massive liability (Catcher, anyone)? Besides, the Astros don’t have a lot of flexibility for salary or trading prospects.
Why not? Hope is not a strategy. While the talent is there, and this team can turn it around, it is not a given. For a team that has been in so many clutch positions, they are far from it. 6 blown saves, 0-7 in 1-run games, outscored badly in the 1st and late innings of games. They have played a tough schedule, with only one series against a team after the opening series that was under .500 (and they lost that one to Washington). Yet, they have been one of the best teams in MLB when they play winning teams in the past. The farm system does not have a lot of ready-made reinforcements. Something will likely have to change, but the status quo does not appear likely to get the team out of this funk.
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Road B: Go Even More All-In on 2024
Why? This is a team that is supposed to win now. With Bregman slated for free agency, and the potential to lose Verlander, it may well be the “Last Ride” for the squad. The farm system doesn’t have much left for high-caliber trades, and the payroll is approaching tax levels that must give Crane night-sweats. However, for a team that is championship or bust, there is no middle ground. First base is a black hole, and for all the hope shown for Joey Loperfido, he is only a prospect. The once-dominant pitching is a mess. The team has already invested so much in making 2024 another championship run. May as well go all-in, future be damned.
Why not? How many times have teams gone all-in only for it to bust? It would mean draining a limited farm system to almost empty and blowing past various tax levels. Would teams willingly help the Astros, even if they offer all-in moves? Even if the all-in gamble yields a ring, the future for Houston turns incredibly grim, giving fans PTSD about the early 2010s. Also, the key architects of such moves would all but fill-out their own pink slips, thus adding to the front office turmoil that bedevils the Astros.
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Road C: Soft Rebuild (Accept that 2024 is lost, but gear up for 2025)
Why? Starting double-digits under .500 is not a death sentence for a baseball team. Yet, a team needs to be mindful of not only the immediate future, but the near-term. If the calendar rolls into June, and if the Astros haven’t gotten back to around/over .500, there is validity in a soft rebuild. The farm system is in need of some reinforcements and the Astros have some trade pieces that could net some decent returns. Soon-to-be free agents like Verlander and Bregman find new homes. Perhaps a change of scenery is the thing for Pressly. Key pieces like Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, etc should remain off-limits. Additionally, this allows Garcia and McCullers more time to get healthy and return for 2025. It could be a down year, but ultimately a bump in the road for the long-standing juggernaut.
Why not? Can the Astros actually admit to a surrender for 2024? Sure, there will be talent for another run in 2025, but that is not a given. There is no guarantee that the Astros will get the value in prospects they desire, and they will still have a tax bill impacting draft position/prospect capability. Players like Abreu and Hader will remain on the roster. The Astros may have some more money to try to extend Valdez and Tucker, but would they necessarily take that money, especially if the team is not as assured of remaining a contender? Also, there is no certainty that players like Garcia, Urquidy and McCullers will return to their pre-injury peaks.
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Road D: Full-on Rebuild.
- Why? The team is aging and they are no longer “reloading” like they did before. Father Time is undefeated and it is inevitable that a new wave is required for Houston. They do not have the resources like the Dodgers to spend a lot of money in free agency and maintain a farm system machine that churns out stars at will. Better to strike while the getting is good. Imagine what a clearance sale of players like Bregman, Verlander, Tucker, Valdez, could yield? Also, if the goal is hard reset, then eating some bad salaries to remove roster deadweight should not be a problem. The squad would still have some pieces around which to build a competitive team for the short term and allow a reboot of the farm system for a return to championship contention in the near future.
- Why not? See some of the negatives of a soft rebuild. Shouldn’t a dynasty die a natural death vs. suicide? Also, there is no guarantee that this hard rebuild will yield results. Will fans forgive an immediate tear-down after such a wave of success, and return yet again to the days of empty MMP and 0.0 TV ratings? Also, get ready for the team’s office shenanigans to dominate the headlines over the on-field product. Would Crane get revealed as one of the worst owners in the league, who only got lucky because Lunhow’s moves worked out and Click didn’t sink the ship?
The Astros are not in full-on panic mode…yet. The front office is likely to stay the course. However, some of these paths, unthinkable a month ago, are more realistic than previously feared. If the Astros are still mired in this state come June, then some difficult decisions are forthcoming.