Finding areas to save
One of the better baseball books in the past 20 years was Vince Gennaro’s “Diamond Dollars.” In particular, there were two ideas that were very influential. The first idea was that there was a sweet spot at which it makes sense for teams to spend in free agency. When you think about this, it makes perfect sense. A 60 win team just isn’t going to spend its way to a pennant.
Even all-star players are usually in the five to seven win category. So, it would take four such players for a 65 win team to get to that magical 85-90 win plateau. Most teams don’t have that kind of disposable income. So, you are better waiting until you are on the cusp of 85 wins. Then, that one player throws you to about 90 wins and you make it into the dance in October.
As interesting as that thought process is, the one that I am concerned about is something Gennaro called “the platoon advantage.” Essentially, you are paying a premium to players that perform well against righties and lefties. So, could you save a little bit of money and get the same result by signing two guys that hit well from opposite sides of the plate? Obviously, with how shallow benches are, you can’t afford to do that at every position of need, but one or two key positions could be split up for less.
The Astros likely have three holes they would like to fill coming into the 2025 season. There are current holes in left field, center field, and at first base. This doesn’t even include third base where Alex Bregman is an impending free agent. Yet, when we look at the numbers of the current guys, we are left with the idea that it isn’t so much that they have holes, but they have holes from certain sides of the plate.
Jon SIngleton vs righties: .258/.350/.423
Jon Singleton vs lefties: .145/.207/.250
Singleton is a better than average hitter against right-handed pitchers. He is Jose Abreu against lefties. So, do you really need to blow your wad and give a huge bag to Pete Alonso? I suppose you could and you would derive some benefit from that, but why not simply sign a guy that could hit against lefties and maybe play a few games at other spots instead?
Mark Canha vs. righties: .229/.330/.328
Mark Canha vs. lefties: ..275/.380/.395
Ryan O’Hearn vs. righties: .264/.338/.439
Ryan O’Hearn vs. lefties: .262/.296/.310
Carlos Santana vs. righties: .219/.318/.358
Carlos Santana vs. lefties: .286/.356/.578
These are three flawed hitters. O’Hearn is not a good fit to be paired with Singleton, but he would be a good fit for either Canha or Santana. The whole idea behind the platoon advantage is that you are combining the two best parts of two different players. Now, let’s put Singleton against righties with Canha and Santana against lefties. Notice what happens when we compare these numbers with Alonso straight up.
Jon Singleton: .258/.350/.423
Mark Canha: .275/.380/.395
Aggregate: .266/.365/.409
Jon Singleton: .258/.350/.423
Carlos Santana: .286/.356/.578
Aggregate: .272/.360/.500
Ryan O’Hearn: .264/.338/.439
Carlos Santana: .286/.356/.578
Aggregate: .275/.347/..508
Peter Alonso: .240/.329/.459
There can be no denying that Alonso is better than any of the above players on an individual basis. Yet, I combined three different combinations of players that are either as good if not better than Alonso would be. Now, we have to be honest and remember that Alonso plays half of his games in Citi Field where it is pretty tough to hit, so we can’t quite take his numbers at face value, but you also have to see the obvious point here.
Spoctrac predicts that Alonso will sign a seven year, 242 million dollar contract, That is 36 million dollars a season for those not up on the quick math. They do not have a prediction for Carlos Santana but he signed for 5.25 million last season, so somewhere between five and eight million seems like a reasonable guess. Canha is also predicted in the five to ten million dollar range. Spotrac is guessing that O’Hearn will not have his tender picked up and he was making around five million. Hopefully you are seeing a pattern here.
Even if you signed two of the three above you would probably be paying between ten and 15 million dollars for both players. O’Hearn and Canha can play left field in addition to first base. So, they could conceivably be a part of an outfield platoon at the same time as first base. Santana would be the best bang, but since he is limited to first base he would only be an option at first or designated hitter. That seems like a lot to pay for someone specializing as a guy against lefties.
Jake Meyers vs. righties: .207/.267/.336
Jake Meyers vs. lefties: .250/.336/.422
Center field looks like a hole, but it is only a hole against right-handed pitchers. Admittedly, that is 75 percent of the pitchers you face, but if you found a left-handed hitting center fielder that flourished against right handed pitchers such a platoon would actually also be intriguing. I mentioned Cedric Mullins in yesterday’s piece. Let’s see what happens with him.
Cedric Mullins vs. righties: .245/.325/.441
Cedric Mullins vs. lefties: .196/.228/.278
Well, well, well, what do you know? You put together Mullins against righties and Meyers against lefties and you have yourself quite a center fielder. Again, that would require a trade. Dana Brown could just as easily explore other deals for similar left-hand hitting center fielders. It would be preferable to paying out the nose for one really good center fielder.