The Next Pressing Topic: Framber Valdez’s Long Term Status

The contract discourse surrounding the Astros in recent months was primarily focused on Alex Bregman (now a Red Sox) and Kyle Tucker (now a Cub). Rightfully so, I might add. Those two players were cornerstones of the franchise. For the former, there was a (slim) possibility that he would re-sign with Houston before he recently chose the Red Sox. That yo-yo of a saga has thankfully drawn to a close. For the latter, Dana Brown decided to recoup something of value more than a compensatory draft pick in 2026 and ended with a trio of players at various levels of the club control spectrum. Tucker, after all, appears primed to demand a contract in the $300 to $400 million range next offseason. We’re all aware a contract offer of this magnitude wasn’t coming from Houston.

But there is a third player with a hefty payday in mind, or at least the hopes for one, in the nearish future: Framber Valdez. Please make no mistake, it isn’t like Valdez is a forgotten figure in the club’s long-term plans. Even he was tossed around in trade rumors before Tucker was sent to Chicago. But his and Bregman’s status somewhat overshadowed Valdez this offseason. At this point, I am not entirely sure what the Astros will do concerning his pending free agency, especially as extension talks had not taken place entering camp last week.

I am in the camp that the Astros should keep Valdez as a member of their organization beyond 2025 under the assumption he remains with the club throughout the entire season. After all, since 2021, only nine other pitchers have thrown the same amount or more innings than Valdez (710 ¹⁄₃ IP). Only seven pitchers have generated more value by fWAR. Valdez has avoided any prolonged IL stint, other than an occasional hiccup to his arm or the fractured finger episode in early 2021. If you were looking for a book about a workhorse starter in today’s game, Valdez is in the discussion of being on the cover.

However, for players beyond their initial six years of club control, it ultimately depends on the contract—or, more specifically, in this case, its term. A hypothetical three-to-four-year contract for Valdez approaching $27 to $30 million in average annual value, while a significant raise from his current $18 million salary, would entice multiple suitors, the Astros hopefully included. Realistically, though, I highly doubt Valdez will sign for only a three-year or even a four-year commitment, barring a collapse of his market. Corbin Burnes’ six-year, $210 million contract ($35 million AAV) with the Diamondbacks and Max Fried’s eight-year, $218 million contract ($27.250 million AAV) with the Yankees set the market, at least loosely, for Valdez’s services next offseason if his 2025 results align closely with past performance. That said, I don’t think a team will readily sign the southpaw to a six-to-eight-year contract, mostly due to the fact that he will enter his age-32 season in 2026. Burnes, for context, is now entering his age-30 season. Fried is in his age-31 season. Valdez will be in his age-32 season in 2026. A five-year commitment is probably the most realistic goal for Valdez, with an average annual salary approaching that $27 million to $30 million mark. Whether it is an acceptable offer to him is another question.

In terms of player payroll, the Astros will certainly have the money available when José Abreu’s and Rafael Montero’s contracts are no longer a hindrance to the budget. The remainder of Ryan Pressly’s contract ($5.5 million) will be gone. Victor Caratini’s $6 million salary won’t be around, either. When accounting for all of the expiring contracts before arbitration, including Valdez, Cot’s Baseball Contracts currently estimates roughly $111.366 million in payroll space below the first threshold of $244 million in 2026. Additional money will come off the books in the next couple of years, too. On the surface, money per season shouldn’t pose too much of a problem in order to offer a new long-term contract to Valdez.

Valdez is the type of starter who can continue to pitch atop a rotation for the foreseeable future. We all know the value he can provide. Health, again, hasn’t been a primary concern with him. Of course, there is the issue of an occasional lack of focus, which could snowball into a subpar outing. 2023 had plenty of those moments, and 2024 wasn’t without blemish, with last year’s start against the Angels on May 20 standing out. But the overall value, with a lack of another immediate top option to take his place, should entice the Astros to keep him around.

There’s also a risk when talking about long-term contracts taking any player deeper into their thirties. Valdez is no exception. In what has seemingly become an annual tradition to me, I always put a note to watch the shape of Valdez’s sinker. When he concentrates on higher velocity, the pitch tends to lose its defining feature: Its sink. Left higher in the zone, opposing hitters, as they noticeably did in 2023, had less of a problem lifting the ball and slugging the heck out of it. We saw Valdez back off the velocity a bit in 2024, and his sinker looked better. When that pitch works, the rest of his arsenal gels together rather nicely. An uptick in changeup usage against right-handed hitters helped matters, too.

But what if the Astros struggle until the trade deadline? What will happen to Valdez? Personally, I think Dana Brown ought to consider trading him. I think you have to at that point if the team’s fortunes aren’t promising for the postseason. For as much as I’d like to keep Valdez around, the organization is in strange in-between territory. Another poor start to the season could prompt a discussion about the long-term course for the organization. Trading Valdez would be a prudent course of action if those less-than-desirable circumstances come to pass by July.