Is he underrated by most fans?
Author’s Note: These HOF Index articles are not directly Astros related. I am releasing them as a distraction as we are waiting for real news to talk about. They also happen to coincide with the Veterans Committee and BBWAA votes for the 2025 class. I hope you enjoy them.
From here on out, we are going to pick off guys one by one that come within 20 percent (80/120) of the median for Hall of Fame first basemen. In a previous article, I went through the rank and file first basemen, but the tables cut off for many of you, so I will be comparing each of these players to the median. Therefore, you will see a player’s score and the median.
So that there is no confusion, the median does not include players north of 120 percent of the overall Hall of Fame median. We are not comparing these guys with Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, or Jeff Bagwell. We are also not comparing them with guys like Frank Chance, Jim Bottomley, or Gil Hodges. We are strictly looking at the guys in the middle.
On a more global sense, a study in Keith Hernandez is a study in value. People have an image of a prototypical first baseman in their head and Hernandez really doesn’t fit that. He never hit 30 home runs and rarely ever drove in 100 or more runs. Yet, he was valuable because of the other things that he did. A run prevented is just as valuable as a run produced. No first baseman in the history of the sport was as efficient at preventing runs as Hernandez. As always we start with the counting numbers as a way to explain why he is not in.
Hernandez didn’t hit a ton of home runs or drive in a ton of runs for that matter. Many Hall of Fame voters are caught up in counting numbers and just can’t get past them. Sure, maybe his career could have lasted another couple of seasons. The key is looking at the batting average, but also what was not included in the table. Hernandez was more adept at getting on base than even some of those guys in the median.
Even giving all of that, there is no getting around the fact that Hernandez likely wasn’t as good offensively as those guys and we haven’t even looked at our typical offensive numbers yet. The key is the whole package and that is what we get to when we look at the index.
Those that are religious readers of my Substack will note that the median score did not match the one from the rank and file article. That is a methodology problem and not a math problem. When looking at just the final tallies, the median score is actually lower. In this edition we added together all of the component medians to get a new total. Using the lower total seems silly when everyone that has completed elementary school can see that Hernandez doesn’t quite reach the median.
The index was never meant to be an exact tool. For all intents and purposes, Hernandez is a median HOF first basemen. Yes, he comes in a little over two wins shy. Over a 15 year career that is statistically insignificant. We employ the other tests to determine how we got here.
As you can clearly see, Hernandez is not quite as good as the median Hall of Fame first baseman. However, when you compare him with the two guys I profiled in the last article, you can see he was better than them nearly across the board. It’s all about the OBP. One of the cardinal rules behind the index is that we are really looking for the player that is most fit at every position. That notion by itself should eliminate Garvey and Mattingly right out of the gate.
Is Hernandez the most fit of those on the outside looking in? Obviously players like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera will be automatic inductions when they become eligible. We can take them off the board. Otherwise, it will be interesting to see where Hernandez stacks up when compared with the other candidates we will profile.
Keith Hernandez is the only first baseman after 1900 to have a positive DWAR. Keep in mind that first basemen are compared with every other position on the diamond. That means he was more valuable defensively than some shortstops and center fielders. He is first in history amongst first basemen in fielding runs according to Rfield and total zone. It’s not even particularly close.
I would be remiss to point out that the Veterans Committee has selected players deemed to be the best defenders at their position notwithstanding their offensive numbers. Bill Mazeroski is a perfect example. Hernandes was actually good offensively on top of the defense. He just wasn’t quite as good as the median. These numbers by themselves probably warrant induction.
For those new to the conversation, MVP awards are given ten points, top five finishes five points, and top ten finishes three points. Anything between 11th and 25th gets one point in the MVP category. BWAR is the same except there were no points awarded for 11th through 25th. We can see that both Hernandez and the median first basemen were fairly accurately pegged in terms of value.
No individual test proves or disproves anything. It is merely evidence. We are seeing more and more evidence that Hernandez belongs in the Hall of Fame. Like I said before, it remains to be seen whether or not he is the most fit of those on the outside looking in, but there can be little doubt that he is fit.
When looking at playoff numbers we always have to keep two things in mind. The sample sizes are inevitably small. A typical player will have 600 or more plate appearances in a healthy season. So, Hernandez didn’t even play a quarter season’s worth of games in the playoffs. Furthermore, he had more plate appearances than most of the guys profiled including the median first baseman.
Small sample sizes can create some distorted results. So, it is hard to put too much weight on this in comparison with a career that spanned 6000, 7000, or 8000 plate appearances. Secondly, the level of competition increases. That means better pitching and better hitting. So, seeing a .729 OPS is not a sign of a player that choked. It is a sign of a player facing tougher pitchers.
Yes, he was not quite as good as the median, but he did help his team in one of the more memorable World Series comebacks in history. So, on balance his postseason resume is probably closer to neutral when compared with the median. The other tests show he is more than qualified for Cooperstown.