Today, let’s look at the pleasant surprises that have kept Astros’ hopes afloat.
This is the second part of a two-part series. Today, we discuss the biggest and best surprise performances in the Astros’ first half 2024 season.
In Part I of this series we discussed the biggest disappointments of the first half of the Astros’ 2024 season. Of course, the biggest disappointment was the entire month of April. In their first 27 games, the Astros were 7-20. From April 27th – May 31 the Astros were 18-14, and in June as of this writing, they are 16-8. Unfortunately, one month as bad as the Astros’ first month can wreck a season.
In that first month, the Astros’ team ERA was 5.01, 26th in baseball. The starters and relievers shared the fail equally. The starters’ ERA was 5.10, and the bullpen, 4.90.
The April hitting was better, even pretty good from one perspective, with a wRC+ of 115, 5th in MLB. But in the all-important category of run production, the Stros were only 16th. In May Astros’ run production improved to 11th, and in June it is 8th but in fewer games than all but one of the teams ahead of them.
Meanwhile, team ERA has gone down each month. In June it is 3.45, fifth in MLB tied with Seattle. In May it was 3.62, ninth in MLB. So, since April, the Astros have been in the upper tier in both batting and pitching throughout MLB.
In today’s installment, we will examine the surprises of 2024. On the pitching side, we can count young starters Hunter Brown and Spencer Arreghetti as both disappointments and pleasant surprises. In the first quarter of this season, both were a big reason for the failure of the starting pitcher corp. But since about mid-May, they have led the staff’s resurgence.
On May 17, Hunter Brown’s ERA was 7.71. Since then it is 1.47. On May 25th, Spencer Arrighetti’s ERA was 6.93, Since then it is 3.95, including one huge meltdown but also a recent seven-inning, 10-K shutout.
The Astros need these two to continue on their current trajectories if the team hopes to challenge for a playoff position. The Astros’ hopes are slim and none if both of these pitchers regress.
Few would argue that the biggest surprise of 2024 is the All-Star quality performance of Ronel Blanco, who barely made the 26-man roster, and was fifth starter only due to injuries of the “real” starters. In that fifth game of the season, he broke the Astros’ four-game losing streak with a no-hitter. Currently, Blanco’s record is 8-3 with a 2.49 ERA.
But let us not forget the problems in the bullpen and two unexpected solutions. Before this season, Thirty-two-year-old Tayler Scott had only 46 IP and a 9.00 ERA. This year, in 40.1 innings for the Astros, most among relievers, he has a 1.56 ERA, with an xERA of 2.91.
Is the spirit of Brent Strom still hovering in the Astros’ bullpen? Shades of Collin McHugh.
The other pleasant surprise in the bullpen is 29-year-old Seth Martinez, although his success this year is not without precedent. Like Scott, he is a late-bloomer, compiling only 85 innings before this season. But as a low-leverage reliever in 2022, Martinez had a 2.09 ERA, 2.76 xERA. Last year saw what most people assumed was a regression to the norm with an ERA of 5.23 and similar peripherals. This season looks more like 2022: ERA 2.72, xERA 3.28.
Going into Sunday’s game, these two pitchers led the Astros staff in ERA and were second and fourth respectively in xERA.
Early season success might incline some to include Jeremy Pena in the pleasant surprise category. He has cooled off recently, and the truth is, he’s been remarkably consistent overall in his first three seasons, although his early-career power surge has disappeared. In three seasons his wRC+ has been 102, 96, and 102 this year. His fWAR in 2022 was 3.3. Halfway through 2024, it’s 1.7.
Similarly, some might include Mauricio Dubon in the “pleasant surprise” category. But to this writer, he looked for real last year, and he’s pretty much repeating that performance so far this year.
These pleasant surprises have kept the Astros within striking distance of their eighth consecutive playoff appearance despite devastating injuries to the pitching staff. Did I leave out any disappointments or pleasant surprises? Add your comments below.
Editor’s note: After publication, in the bottom of the ninth in a tied game, Tay Scott held the Mets 1-2-3 to send the game into extra innings.