2024 has been a big disappointment at this midpoint of the season, but it could have been worse.
Face it, the only people happy about the Astros season this year are just about all baseball fans who live outside Houston and still obsess about thrash cans.
In other words, almost everyone.
For the rest of us living near Houston spoiled by continued dynastic success, the season has been a nightmare.
As of this writing, the Astros are three games from the midway point of the season, two games under .500, and six games out of first place in the AL West. If the Astros improve slightly in the second half and manage to win 81 games, that would leave them about fourteen games below most projections.
A major disappointment.
Why?
Luck is a factor. The Astros are the only team in baseball with a positive SRS score (run differential + difficulty of schedule) and a losing record. But is choking luck? the Astros are 29th in Clutch rating, defined by Fangraphs as “How much a player (team) does in high leverage situations compared to context neutral environments.”
Along these lines, the Astros are 2nd in team BA, 6th in wRC+, but 13th in runs scored.
Twelve blown saves might have something to do with the positive SRS and losing record as well. The only winning team with that many is the Orioles.
I don’t have to tell the readers of this website about the massive damage to the Astros’ rotation inflicted by injury. The Astros are 21st in MLB in team ERA. Considering the injuries, I’m surprised they’re that high.
Still, individual underachievement can’t be dismissed. In Part I we will discuss the three players whose underachievement has contributed most to the Astros’ disappointing season. In Part II we’ll discuss three players whose surprising success has kept Astros hope alive for eventual success in 2024.
First, dishonorable mentions.
We shall leave the name of the failed, recently dismissed first baseman out of the discussion.
No one expected much from him anyway. Likewise, Rafael Montero can’t be said to disappoint, because so little was expected from him too. Strangely, one could put Yordan Alvarez on this list because his wRC+ is 19 points below his career average. But it’s hard to put a guy hitting 49% above league average on any kind of sh#* list.
Yanier Diaz has certainly fallen off from 2023 production. But few expected his sophomore season to go as well. ZIPs projected a WOBA of .320. It is .299 but his xWOBA is .323.
So, in no particular order, the Top Three Disappointments of the current 2024 Astros.
1. Alex Bregman: Although Bregman is a traditionally slow starter, the first two months of 2024 are among his worst of the worst. While the Astros were digging a deep hole in March/April, Bregman’s wRC+ was 68, compared to a career average of 109. In May, Bregs began his slow ascent, hitting wRC+ 102, but far below his career average of 124. Perhaps the Astros’ successful month of June has something to do with Bregman’s almost best-ever June, wRC+150, compared to a career average of 135.
Currently, Bregman is hitting wRC+ 109 for the first half. His career first-half average is 124, although the first half doesn’t end until the All-Star Break. Two telltale signs of Bregman’s struggles are his low BB% at 7.6%. and ISO at .153, both first-half career lows.
Bregs seems to be back on track, but his under-under-performance in the season’s first two months was a significant problem for the team considering the zero coming from the other infield corner.
2. Ryan Pressly: Although Pressly appears to be stabilizing, it’s hard to ignore Pressly’s three losses and five blown saves. His ERA currently is 4.50, compared to an Astros career average of 2.85.
Is Pressly in decline or just unlucky in a small sample? The evidence is mixed. His FIP and xFIP remain below three but his xERA is almost four. His BABIP is a high .381 and his LOB% is a low 63.1%, compared to a career average of 72.6%. These numbers tend to normalize over time.
On the other hand, Pressly’s fastball velocity at 94.2 is one MPH below his Astros career average. His K% in 2024 is 28.4 compared to an Astros career average of 32. His batting average against is .274 in 2024 compared to his career Astros average of .203. His WHIP is 1.47 compared to an average of 1.00. The hard hit % is 44.2 compared to an Astros average of 38.5. The 2024 contact% of 73.7% compares to Pressly’s Astros career average of 67.5.
These peripherals could improve. If Pressly remains a high-leverage reliever, let’s hope so.
3. Chas McCormick: From a career average wRC+ of 116, in this first half of 2024 Chas is hitting 84. His fWAR in three seasons with the Astros has ranged from 2.1 to 3.3. Although he is on track for fewer PAs than in those years, his current fWAR is 0.1. Preseason projections ranged from 2.3 to 2.9.
He has only hit three home runs, (all last week), and his ISO of .130 is 57 points below his career average.
The silver lining is that the likely direction for all three of these players is up. That and the recent sweep of the powerhouse from Baltimore should restore hope for Astros fans.
But. Please, Verlander, come back soon. You too Luis Garcia. And no more pitcher injuries.