The adjusted process hasn’t led to better results quite yet. But it is only a matter of time, hopefully.
Let’s first present a few facts: The Astros have scored just eight runs in their first four games. The lineup is currently struggling. Kyle Tucker has already driven in ten runs this season, but for the Cubs. Frankly, a 2-2 record when your offense is averaging two runs per game is probably about the best case, or close to it. Aside from a bullpen meltdown on Monday against the Giants, the pitching staff has performed relatively well so far.
However, the bats are cold. They won’t remain cold for the entire season, just to clarify. They’ll heat up, and hopefully, we can dismiss this current stretch as a minor sample glitch in a long season. But something meaningful has changed with the Astros, partially due to personnel changes and also due to a philosophy adjustment.
For the past couple of seasons, the Astros haven’t been known for their ability to draw out a plate appearance. Last season, for example, the lineup averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance. No other team drew fewer than that mark.
But Houston also led the league in first-pitch swinging percentage, at 37.7%. Those two metrics help tell the story of last season’s lineup and why it developed its reputation in this regard. The lineup was overly aggressive in its approach, and opposing pitchers were aware of this development. The Astros acknowledged this issue as early as last summer, per Chandler Rome’s reporting, and there was chatter throughout the offseason about changing their hitters’ approach at the plate. Lo and behold, we’ve seen an adjustment materialize in just four games.
These metrics will undoubtedly change, though. Most early-season analyses are fraught with fluctuating numbers. With that said, I believe a change like this one will ultimately stick. The long-term question is the degree of adjustment. However, the Astros were vocal about changing their philosophy, and it is now apparent that they are serious about it.
Certainly, a change in personnel also influences any adjustments. Tucker and Alex Bregman have left, replaced in the lineup by Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker. Paredes, in particular, has emerged as the most significant aspect of this new approach, currently averaging 5.19 pitches per plate appearance. Walker’s approach, however, has swung in the opposite direction, with just 3.38 pitches per plate appearance early in the season, which would mark a career low. Nevertheless, these overall changes aren’t limited to the newcomers. Jose Altuve is now averaging 3.94 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.54 last season. Yordan Alvarez has risen from 3.56 pitches per plate appearance in 2024 to 4.63 pitches in 2025. Jeremy Peña has increased to an average of 4.27 pitches per plate appearance compared to 3.50 last year.
Once again, we’re discussing an extremely limited sample size for this season, so these numbers will change. However, it’s interesting to notice a general increase among multiple batters in this area. The lineup’s tendency towards aggressiveness was an issue last season. So far in 2025, even if the bats are starting off cold, I don’t believe an overly aggressive approach will be a major issue this season.