Quality depth in the starting rotation remains elusive.
In a first inning this season, Astros pitchers have allowed 30 earned runs across 25 games. Or, you know, a ghastly 10.80 ERA. For reference, the 2008 Astros had a 7.04 ERA in the first inning that entire season, the highest for a single season in the first inning in franchise history. Only the Rockies pitching staff has posted a higher ERA (12.60) in the first inning this season.
Poor pitching to start a game isn’t the only issue plaguing Houston thus far in the 2024 season — there is no shortage of areas to blame — but it certainly doesn’t help matters when the starter is giving up a crooked number by the time three outs are recorded. The current road series against the Cubs illustrates that point quite well, with J.P. France and Spencer Arrighetti allowing a combined nine first-inning runs. For reference, Chicago scored eleven combined runs in those two games, with the first-inning implosions responsible for nine runs. This series possibly unfold differently if those games don’t go awry early.
Of course, when discussing these first-inning woes, we’re not talking about Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, or Justin Verlander. Luis García, José Urquidy, and Lance McCullers Jr. haven’t even thrown a pitch this season. We’re instead talking about the likes of Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Spencer Arrighetti, and Blair Henley. Those four have allowed a combined 27 earned runs in the first inning this season, with the remaining three coming from Ronel Blanco. To be fair, Blanco has been the best pitcher on the Astros’ staff this season, so he gets a bit of a pass. But it is important to note how the lack of depth has essentially forced Joe Espada to ride with his available arms, regardless of early-inning woes.
Now sitting with a 7-18 record, the Astros can ill afford another series of pitching woes to be able to climb out of this hole. The hope is that Verlander can help stabilize the rotation while waiting for Valdez and Javier to hopefully return soon from the IL. But, in the meantime, the lack of depth within the organization remains a problem. Both France (5.52 FIP) and Brown (5.47 FIP) have looked increasingly suspect to start the season. While this season largely hinges on how Valdez and Javier pitch, it was also somewhat reliant on France and Brown absorbing innings without becoming liabilities. Depending on Arrighetti also isn’t the answer, at least at this point in his career. The depth was so limited at one point that Henley started in the place of Valdez against the Rangers a couple of weeks ago in what essentially became a bullpen game anyway.
Will these first innings eventually subside?
Sooner or later, yes. For one, the rotation should start to look different in the coming weeks, especially if Valdez and Javier return with no further hindrance. Having those two along with Verlander ought to alleviate some of the depth issues. In turn, we probably won’t see Arrighetti for a while, who needs more time in the minors. Blanco has likely ascended the depth chart to maintain a hold on the fourth rotation spot. That development, in theory, means France and Brown are contending for the fifth rotation spot, with the other possibly serving as an occasional sixth starter. At this point, I think France could have the slight edge, possibly due to his ability to pitch a little deeper into games and help ease the burden on the bullpen. Brown has the higher upside as a starter, but neither pitcher has been ideal thus far, so this could become a fluid situation.
With that said, it is easy for the plan to blow up on the Astros, especially if another starter goes down. While the hope was that the rotation could at least tread water until the likes of García, Urquidy, and McCullers Jr. return, it was also a plan with plenty of risks. Yes, losing Valdez and Javier wasn’t expected, but it only highlighted the lack of action from Jim Crane and Dana Brown to address a known deficiency. It was encouraging to see the club make a run at Blake Snell in Spring Training, but Brown felt comfortable enough with the depth already in-house to not pursue other options when those talks led to a dead end. But I felt like payroll and tax considerations played a larger role in that determination than being comfortable with the depth chart. Even Dusty Baker lamented the lack of depth before the 2023 season and it remains the same story for 2024. To attempt to rectify the situation, Astros would be wise to at least scan the market for any available arms that could help fortify the depth chart in the short term.