A deeper look at an Astros trade rumor
In the movie “Major League” the general manager tells the manager that they had signed Jake Taylor. The manager asks, “he was an all-star in Boston wasn’t he?” The general manager said, “yeah, he had some problems with his knees.” Another coach said, “wish we would have had him two years ago.” The GM said, “we did.” The coach answered, “four years ago then.”
The entire rumor around Nolan Arenado feels a lot like that exchange. The Hall of Fame Index will eventually be very kind to Arenado. A large part of that is about his fielding. You could credibly claim that he has been the best defensive third baseman of the past twenty years at least. He will go down as one of the top five defenders at the position of all-time.
As a hitter, it is a bit difficult since some of his legacy is wrapped up in spending much of his career in Coors Field. Todd Helton and Larry Walker went through the same issues. How seriously do we take those offensive numbers? However, I am fairly confident he will wind up in Cooperstown. So, there’s that.
Unfortunately, when you get past the pop and sizzle of the name you get to the cold and hard reality of who the player is right now. Arenado will be going into his age 34 season and has three years to go on a pretty costly contract. Sure, the Rockies are paying off some of that and the Cardinals may pay off some more. Keep in mind, we haven’t even mentioned what would be going the other way. Even if this is another version of “take my wife…please” you still have to give them something.
The Basics
Slash: .272/.325/.394
Defensive Runs Saved: +6
BWAR: 2.5
Immediately we are looking at what amounts to an average regular. That particular performance came in at a 101 OPS+. It’s obviously not terrible and when you include above average defense it is clear that he would be a better than average player overall. Still, he’s not getting any younger and not likely getting any better.
The main positive would be improving your overall situation at first base with Isaac Paredes replacing Jon Singleton. Assuming Arenado could reproduce his 2024 season you would be above average at first and third. Would that be enough to offset the loss of Alex Bregman? I suppose an argument could be made, but it seems like you are just robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Underlying Numbers
I usually like to call these process stats. Sometimes players put up good traditional numbers in spite of bad underlying numbers. Sometimes the reverse is also true. Arenado had an overall OPS above .800 between 2021 and 2023 for the Cardinals. So, was his dip in 2024 due to bad underlying numbers or was he simply unlucky?
SO%: 14.5
BB%: 6.9
Chase: 30.4%
BABIP: .296
Hard Hit: 31.2%
Statcast Slash: .256/.309/.361
There is no sugarcoating these numbers, but let’s start with some good news. Arenado does not strike out a lot. If the Astros run since 2017 has been punctuated by anything offensively it has been their general ability to avoid striking out a lot. However, everything else is either average or below average. The league average hard hit rate is closer to 40 percent and Arenado went from 38.1 percent to 31.2 percent in one year. Ouch.
The statcast numbers reflect that. Yes, it is certainly possible that 2024 was a down season. Arenado’s only other season below 37 percent came in 2020. So, maybe he goes back up above 35 percent at the very least. I guess that is the other positive in our analysis sandwich. However, it is highly unlikely he gets back to where he was at his peak.
Ballpark Effects
This is always the question when a player changes teams. We have seen where people can read way too much into this. For instance, some people are already inflating Paredes’ numbers based on previous models. I saw them do this with Preston Wilson. We can get way ahead of ourselves. However, I will show four sets of numbers here and that hopefully gives some idea. We have his numbers in Coors Field. Those are video game numbers and obviously skew the overall career numbers considerably. We will compare those with slash lines in St. Louis, on the road between 2021 and 2024, and the limited action in Minute Maid Park.
Coors Field: .320/.375/.607
Busch Stadium: .273/.332/.462
2021-2024 Road: .270/.324/.481
MMP: .280/.315/.500
I should note that the MMP stats come in a mere 54 plate appearances. I generally hate small sample sizes and there is a secondary problem. Since all of those came in past seasons we can’t really use it as an estimate for future seasons. It would seem like the Busch Stadium and road numbers overall would be better estimates for the player he really has been up to this point.
That would make him an .800 OPS type of hitter with above average fielding ability. If the Astros got THAT guy I’d be pretty happy. If the Astros get the .700ish type hitter he was last year obviously that would be less than ideal. Every player has value and we will get to that in minute, but it all depends on what you are actually paying him and what it would take to get him.
Intangibles
As I just said, every player has value and Arenado comes with certain intangibles that primarily impact you on the business end. First and foremost, he is a big name. When you just got done trading Kyle Tucker and obviously letting Alex Bregman walk then a big name will help with sponsorships and season ticket sales. Intelligent fans won’t be nearly as enthusiastic, but how many of them are buying season tickets and merch?
Secondly, there is some tangible benefit to having a Hall of Famer finish his career in Houston. If he does end up coming to Houston I would go through his HOF Index scores, but suffice it to say he is a very likely Hall of Famer even as he stands now. Add about ten wins and it becomes a lead pipe lock. There are obviously some marketing and apparel opportunities there. I am not an economist and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I couldn’t provide any tangible numbers, but it would be substantial.
There is also the intangible of a veteran entering the clubhouse. Positive? That would remain to be seen as some personalities mix better than others. However, a team that is becoming younger can always use another veteran leader. So we would certainly hope that Arenado would be a net positive in that department.
Overall Thoughts
There is an episode of the Simpsons where they form a band called “The B Sharps.” The idea was the have a name that would initially be exciting but then lose its luster the longer you sat on it. This move would feel a lot like that. Arenado is a big name and has done great things in the game. Unfortunately, you would be acquiring the player he is now and that isn’t really a good player anymore. He might be an above average player and I suppose that is something, so hopefully the Cards would pay some of his salary and they would take a lesser package.