So Houston needs 13 wins vs. 11 to win it all? Just two more games, right?
The Astros win the AL West for the 7th time in eight toseasons (7th straight full season). A statement that says a lot, and not nearly enough. Before the season started, it seemed a given that this would happen. Then the season started. Uh, teams going 12-24 don’t usually do all that well. Then, the rest of the season. Thus, Houston wins the division. However, by virtue of that hellacious start, and since Cleveland and whoever wins the knife-fight for the AL East will take the two byes to the ALDS, the Astros will open the playoffs at home in the best-of-3 Wild Card Round.
What to think of that? On one hand, it seems detrimental. For all the hand-wringing about regular season success getting diminished by a bye/early ALDS exit, the Astros didn’t seem to mind. Their 6-1 record in the ALDS since 2022 testifies to that. Their pitchers got rest, and the battle-tested playoff bats of the Astros got into a hitting grove quickly enough. Now, they face the risk of not even getting to the ALDS. The variances of a Wild Card round can upend many a plan. Throw in the rather unique Astros playoff trait of Minute Maid where Houston’s non-championship seasons end unhappily (2018, 2019, 2021, 2023), and you can understand the consternation. Oh, did we mention the ineffectiveness of Houston’s best starting pitcher since 2017, possibly seeing him off the playoff roster?
However, the Wild Card might not be the worst thing in the world. Consider:
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The team possess three top tier starters, and that’s sans Verlander: Valdez, Brown, Kikuchi Huh? That lineup wasn’t on the start-of-season bingo card. Yet, this is the likely Wild Card starters. Framber Valdez continues the trend of really good even-numbered years, currently sporting a 15-7 record and 2.91 ERA. Since the end of perhaps the worst April in his life, Hunter Brown is 11-3 with a 2.28 ERA. If not for some bad run support in his later starts, the win/loss records reads even better. Then consider the trade deadline acquisition of Yusei Kikuchi. Astros traded three top prospects from a depleted farm system, and Kikuchi didn’t exactly sport the best numbers in Toronto (4-9, 4.75 ERA, etc). Yet, Dana Brown and the pitching wizards saw something, and Houston really needed the help. Since he came to Houston: 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 74 strikeouts, etc. Houston went 8-1 in his starts (he should petition to discount that last loss in a clear hangover game). Sure, Houston could consider Ronel Blanco or Spencer Arrighetti, but likely, the aforementioned trio starts the Wild Card round. Houston will gladly play that hand. Recent post-season trends seem to show that as long as you have two to three quality starters, a decent bullpen and a decent offense, a World Series is in play. For Houston: check…if all goes to plan.
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Home field might actually be an advantage. Last season, Minute Maid Park equaled the House of Hades for Houston. They closed the season 7-22 at home, 1-5 in the playoffs. This season, the Astros actually won more than they lost at home (46-35). Whatever bedeviled them last year at home seems dispelled. Are they perfect at Minute Maid? Nope. They still lost home series to teams like Oakland and Seattle. However, they also swept playoff contenders at home like Baltimore and Kansas City and took 2 of 3 from Arizona. This does not guarantee an easy time, but homefield feels more secure this year than last. They (likely) won’t see home-field if they get past the Wild Card Round, but they’ve managed a winning record on the road during the season (40-38 with a series a relatively meaningless series at Cleveland remaining). Oh, and this team does know how to win on the road in the post-season (won 10 of last 11 road playoff games).
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Houston’s done the Expanded Wild Card Round before. Remember 2020? Where the owners and Manfred got a taste of expanded Wild Card Series; a 16-team playoff and the promise of more money for them? Everyone played in the Wild Card round, no byes. Houston, who snuck into the 6th seed with a sterling 29-31 record, opened on the road against the Twins, who ended the season on a 16-8 kick. Even with all other fanbases cheering the hot Twins on, Houston swept them in two games. They then regained their playoff form to dispatch the A’s in 4 before falling to Tampa Bay in 7. Maybe not the fairy tale ending for Houston, but a shift in playoff format didn’t stop them then. So…precedent.
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The Wild Card round…the new-path to glory. Houston’s run of success is the outlier. Since the expanded playoffs, Houston is the only team who’s received a Wild Card bye and won the World Series. Actually, they are the only one to get there. The Dodgers and Braves in 2022 and 2023 couldn’t get out of the ALDS and the 2022 Yankees outlasted the Guardians, only to run to Houston in a nice sweep. The 2022 Phillies and 2023 Diamondbacks clinched their pennants from the Wild Card round, and the 2023 Rangers parlayed their Wild Card slot into a run to the Commissioner’s Trophy (no, I did not like writing that last part of the sentence, but facts are stubborn things).
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The example of the NFL: A team known and resented for its success and other things struggles some in the regular season, deprived of its usual playoff bye and path to success, likely having to face its greatest rivals on the road, but yet, somehow winning it all? Ladies and Gentleman, the 2023-24 Kansas City Chiefs. That team weathered, by their standards, a tough regular season, with significant roster concerns (i.e. no wide receivers who could consistently catch the ball). Yet, they got to the playoffs, won the Wild Card at home and then ran the table as the road team. Different sports, but sometimes things in sports can rhyme. Both the Astros and Chiefs know playoff successes. Both have probably more detractors than fans. Oh, and both entered the playoffs as division champs and #3 seeds. May not happen the same for the Astros as the Chiefs, but you can’t completely discount either.
This is not to say that Houston is on the glide path to their third championship. Injuries still bedevil this squad (see Yordan Alvarez). Potential playoff opponents like Minnesota and Seattle won series in Houston. Detroit remains white-hot. The March-April version of the Astros could return. Manfred and the owners might actually conspire to thwart the Astros in an attempt to get the dream World Series matchup of Dodgers and Yankees, which will still finish miles behind whatever college football and NFL game run concurrent with the games. Plenty of potential pratfalls. Still, after all that transpired in 2024, Houston returns to the playoffs. If nothing else, you can’t win it, if you aren’t in it.