Up to June 1, the Astros were underperforming with a 26-33 record. Well, underperforming relative to a .489 Pythag winning percentage. Only two pitching staffs — White Sox and Rockies — generated less value than Houston’s. That’s a large enough problem by itself. But while the lineup was solid overall with a 106 wRC+ through May 31, they were also 18th in runs scored with runners in scoring position. Between those two factors, the result in terms of the win-loss record wasn’t much of a surprise. Disappointing, certainly. But when watching the games, and seeing how things were falling apart at the time, the 26-33 record was certainly earned.
Qualifying for the postseason, much less winning the AL West, was in doubt by this point, although it was only early June. The Mariners would eventually hold a ten-game lead over the Astros by roughly the middle of the month. Needless to say, with a series of injuries to multiple pitchers and Kyle Tucker, it wasn’t looking great. But something happened: The Astros caught fire once the calendar flipped to June. It also helps that they reside in the AL West, which has collectively been a disappointment in 2024.
There are reasons for Houston’s stark turnaround, reflected in their 39-22 record since then. First and foremost, an improvement in run prevention. Hunter Brown went from a demotion candidate to one of the best starters in baseball. Spencer Arrighetti has also progressed. Framber Valdez has stayed healthy and chosen to not go rogue again, at least for now. Yusei Kikuchi has provided a nice boost to the rotation, especially with Justin Verlander still on the IL. Ronel Blanco has lost some steam in recent weeks, but you can’t complain too much about a 3.24 ERA and 4.39 FIP since the start of June in these times. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu still cause some heartburn, but at least it isn’t all at once now. Only two relievers on the team with at least ten innings pitched have an ERA higher than 4.00 since June 1: Seth Martinez and the current Space Cowboy Rafael Montero.
In terms of the offensive numbers, well, not much has changed on the surface, at least according to wRC+. Before June 1, the Astros had a 106 wRC+. Since June 1? A 110 wRC+. The key difference, however, lies in the rate of runs they scored, 4.85 runs per game compared to 4.34 runs per game. More importantly, with runners in scoring position, there was a noticeable improvement, with an increase from a 102 wRC+ to a 127 wRC+. It helps that Alex Bregman has bounced back relative to his slow start. But, to be clear, Tucker hasn’t played since June 3. That’s incredible and sobering all at the same time.
Looking ahead, the pitching staff will likely see some reinforcements soon, mostly with Verlander scheduled to come back in the short term. But the lineup could use some help. Tucker’s activity during his rehab has started to ramp up, although it’ll still be some time before he returns. Houston’s offense since July 1 has experienced some peaks and valleys, but the overall offensive numbers have trended downward, represented by a 103 wRC+ and 4.45 runs per game. This isn’t terribly surprising as Tucker’s impact on this lineup is notable. But his absence also highlights the Astros’ current predicament, which is maintaining this turnaround with an offense that needs a boost. A strong pitching staff has mitigated some of those issues, thankfully, and it will need to continue to be that way.
With the Mariners now three games behind the Astros, Houston’s postseason odds have climbed to 84.4%. For the division, those odds are now 79%. A stark reversal compared to just two months ago. But plenty of baseball remains and a three-game lead in August is hardly safe.