Thinking about the August 1 trade deadline, as well as the Astros current playoff odds.
The trade environment has changed fairly quickly for the Astros. Two weeks ago, if I wrote about the Astros and the August 1 trade deadline, the article probably would have discussed possible “seller” possibilities, because the Astros’ playoff odds had fallen below one in three. And many fans had concluded that selling off players and rebuilding for next year would be the best strategy.
In one short week, the Astros have made up an amazing amount of ground versus the division leading Mariners. And now trade deadline discussions mostly involve the Astros as buyers. That’s not to say that the playoff odds can’t reverse again over the next 30 or so days. They certainly can. But GM Dana Brown has already said he expects the Astros to be buyers rather than sellers at the deadline. And there is a definite vibe that the Astros can return to the playoffs. So, let’s discuss what we might like to see if the Astros are buyers.
Let me explain my bias or predisposition on this subject. In my view, at this stage of the team’s win cycle, the Astros must be extraordinarily careful to avoid mortgaging the team’s future at the deadline. The Astros’ payroll is difficult to manage over the next couple of years, with deadweight like Jose Abreu’s contract counting against the competitive balance tax (CBT), and the need to pay higher salaries to arb eligible players, as well as dealing with the Bregman and Tucker contract situations. The farm system has been hit in the past with draft pick penalties and previous trades of prospects. If the Astros want to avoid the nuclear winter stage of the win cycle, they must rebuild the farm system quickly. And trading their top prospects runs counter to that objective.
Dana Brown faces a tough task which involves threading the needle. By that, I mean he needs to continue putting winning teams on the field while also protecting and rebuilding the farm system.
So, I’m hoping that the Astros don’t go overboard at the trade deadline in order to make a “big splash.” We have read that Jim Crane likes the big splash trades. But that could doom the team’’s future competitiveness, particularly if things don’t go according to plan. The Astros continue to have enough talent on their major league roster to win, and the trades should be smart, efficient, and not too costly in terms of resources. This might sound like the James Click approach to trading, but that’s a topic for another day. Ideally, the Astros should aim for under the radar trades which are low cost and make marginal improvements in the team. I like to point to Braves GM Alex Anthopolous’ deadline trades in 2021 as an example of smart, low cost acquisitions. He targeted under-performing hitters who had a chance to rebound in the second half of the season—and those acquisitions helped propel the team to a World Series championship.
First Base
First base has been an offensive weakness for the Astros. So, it’s natural that speculation abounds that the Astros may trade for a first baseman. The Astros have already stopped the bleeding by releasing Jose Abreu and replacing him with some combination of Mauricio Dubon and Jon Singleton. Yes, it’s not necessarily ideal, but the team has been able to win with that combination. Even with a relatively weak output from first base, the Astros offensive production is in the MLB’s top tier. The Astros are No. 1 in batting average, No. 6 in SLG,, No. 7 in wRC+ (111), and No. 5 in OPS. Shoring up the offensive output from first base does not strike me as the top priority.
One rumor claims that the Astros have made the Blue Jays’ Vlad Guerrero, Jr. a trade target. I am skeptical of that idea. It’s not that I wouldn’t want to see Guerrero batting for the Astros. He is a great hitter and would be under team control through 2025. But there’s a an important catch. His salary is $19.9 million, and he is likely to receive a raise in arbitration next year. The Astos are on the bare edges of a CBT penalty, and the remainder owed on this year’s salary in addition to the $20 million-plus next year will probably put the Astros into tax territory.
More importantly, if the Blue Jays decide to trade a premium player like Guerrero, they will want a big return in trade. Guerrero will be in demand from big market teams like the Yankees, Cubs, and perhaps the Dodgers. If the Astros succeed in trading for Guerrero, they probably will be forced to give up their top prospects, perhaps Melton, Loperfido, and a pitching prospect. Is it worth it? I don’t know; it’s certainly debatable, given the state of the farm system.
What about other trade possibilities for a first baseman? Here is a wRC+ leader board of first baseman. (Note that this is based on offense when the hitters play first base, and does not include other positions or DH.) Dubon has an overall wRC+ of 109 and, according to the linked leader board, Singleton has a wRC+ of 110 when he play first base. Almost all of the 1st baseman with a wRC+ of 120 or higher would be fairly costly in terms of required prospects. A couple of names, such as the Cubs’ Michael Busch and Oakland’s Tyler Soderstrom, are interesting “under the radar” first basemen who are relatively young and will be under team control for awhile. Maybe they are possibilities, but I’m not sure either is a better bet than Joey Loperfido.
And that brings me to another reason that a first bsse trade isn’t top priority. The Astros have other first base options, if necessary, on the ML roster (Cabbage and Loperfido) and in AAA. In fact, when I checked the Pacific Coast League first base leader board to identify possible trade targets, it turns out that Will Wagner hold the 2d highest wRC+ among PCL first basemen.
Starting Pitchers
Pitching likely is a higher priority for the Astros at the deadline. The pitching injuries have put the Astros in a similar predicament to the 1948 Braves who coined the refrain “Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain.” There are moving pieces to the puzzle. Will Verlander return from the injured list healthy? Will Garcia and Lance McCullough return from the injured list in time to fill the pitching gaps? How can the Astros manage the workload of Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti?
The severity of the pitching depth deficiencies could range from “potential problem” to “SOS Emergency” depending on how that moving puzzle turns out. So, yes, pitching is trade priority. I would even suggest that the Astros should target pitchers who are more than a rental, because pitching depth will continue to be an issue over the next few years.
But the obstacle is that every contender wants and needs stating pitching at the trade deadline. The demand will be high—-which means that the required trade return will be extra high. While it would be nice to acquire a top tier starting pitcher, the prospect trading cost is likely to be elevated to a degree that the Astros couldn’t afford it if they tried. The Astros probably don’t have the farm system pieces to compete against teams with higher ranked farm systems.
I would suggest identifying lower ranked pitchers whose value has been dinged a bit by under performance. The Astros need guys who can pitch innings and keep the games from blowing up. Pitchers with unimpressive ERAs, but with x-ERA and FIP below the actual ERA, are good candidates to rebound in the future.
For example, the Colorado Rockies’ pitcher Ryan Feltner started against the Astros Wednesday and fits this criteria. (Feltner gave up first inning runs, but shut out the Astros the remainder of the way, and pitched into the 7th inning.) Feltner has an unsightly 6.02 ERA, but his x-ERA and FIP are 4.06 and 4.16. His x-FIP is 3.98. The 27 year old pitcher has about 4 more years of team control and doesn’t walk many batters. I don’t know if the Rockies are interested in trading him, but he is worth considering.
The Oakland A’s rotation has several pitchers who fit this criteria. Mitch Spence and Luis Medina are young starting pitchers acquired from the Yankees, and both have reasonably good forward looking x- stats. Spence: 4.35 ERA, 3.78 x-ERA, and 3.64 FIP. Medina: 5.25 ERA, 4.59 x-ERA, 4.45 FIP. Both pitchers have above average stuff this year, according to Stuff+. Spence is a Rule 5 pick, and presumably must remain on the active roster this season even if he is traded. Hopefully, the required prospect return would not be as high for these two pitchers.
Acquiring a swing pitcher who can pitch either as a starter or as a long reliever would be another lower cost means to address the Astros’ depth issue. For instance, Adrian Houser, a former Astros’ draftee and minor leaguer, currently fills the swing role with the New York Mets. His ERA is 5.55, but his ERA and x-FIP are more reasonable at 4.74 and 4.32, respectively. He is a free agent next season. We don’t know if the Mets will be sellers at the deadline, but if they are, presumably Houser would be available.
If the Blue Jays decide to sell assets, Yuseii Kikuchi probably would be available as a rental starter. Kikuchi has a 4.00 ERA and even lower x-ERA and FIP (3.89 and 3.53). Kikuchi has posted an even lower x-FIP of 3.36. He would be very attractive as a veteran innings eater.
This is not an exhaustive list, but provides some examples of the types of trades which may be available at a lower cost.
Do you have other suggestions?
PLAYOFF ODDS UPDATE
According to Fangraphs, the Astros’ playoff odds have finally crept above the 50% mark at 50.6% probability. Fangraphs’ current projected standings predict the Astros beating out the Red Sox for the final AL Wild Card with 85 wins. However, the playoff odds indicate that the Astros’ odds are higher (31%) for winning the division.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA odds are even more bullish on the Astros. PECOTA’s current Astros playoff odds are 68%, compared to Seattle at 62%. The Astros have the highest odds (49%) of winning the AL West.