Today is Opening Day for the Astros and for most teams in Major League Baseball. That’s exciting news! It was a long winter, and even in spite of the roster upheaval in Houston, I am ready for some meaningful baseball games back in my day-to-day life. For this organization, the 2025 season is possibly the first transition year since Jeff Luhnow’s rebuild from over ten years ago. But, unlike those seasons, this roster is talented enough to make another postseason run, either as a division winner or via one of the Wild Card spots.
With that said, the juggernauts of seasons past are no longer here. This team has warts. For example, Jose Altuve is the starting left fielder, and rookie Cam Smith is getting the nod in right field. Zero combined games of outfield experience at any meaningful level of baseball, much less regular-season games. The pitching staff is perhaps this team’s best chance of success, especially if the lineup sputters without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. Only time will tell.
So, what are some things to watch for in 2025? There are plenty, but I wanted to narrow it down to a handful of factors.
Run Scoring
Last season, the Astros as a collective unit weren’t exactly a slouch when it came to offensive production, ranking 11th in runs scored (740) and fifth in wRC+ (111). As you can probably tell, though, there was a bit of a disconnect between the efficiency of the offense and the actual number of runs scored. The Padres, who also had a 111 wRC+ last season themselves, scored 20 more runs across the entire season. One possible cause was due to a lack of power on the road, with an ISO (.139, 23rd in MLB) and slugging percentage (.396, 14th in MLB) representing a stark departure from at home (.175 ISO, .442 SLG). In fact, they were fifth in baseball last season in runs scored at home (395), but only 18th on the road (345).
Losing Kyle Tucker to a fractured shin undoubtedly contributed to less firepower within the lineup, at home and on the road. I wonder how this group will adjust now that Tucker is with the Cubs and Alex Bregman is with the Red Sox. Yes, Bregman struggled mightily to start last season, but he had a 144 wRC+ from May 28 onward. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker will help offset some of those losses, yes, but not entirely. This is where banking on Cam Smith to provide immediate production feels a bit too optimistic in my opinion. But for the Astros to take a step forward as a lineup, they’ll need to improve their power and subsequent run production on the road in 2025.
Dana Brown’s Third Season
Generally speaking, it may take up to a few years to determine whether a general manager hire will have success. Different circumstances, yes, but Luhnow didn’t start to see the fruit of the club’s complete overhaul until 2015, or three full seasons. James Click wasn’t afforded that same luxury, although he handled the situation as well as could be expected when he was hired.
Dana Brown is now approaching his third season as Houston’s general manager, and it feels like an increasingly consequential season for him. Like Click before him, Brown already had the infrastructure in place. There was no need to overhaul the entire operation. We’re also starting to see more of his imprint on the active roster, too. But the farm system remains weakened, and Brown’s first two drafts have produced little thus far to improve that standing. While the results of the upcoming season matter, this organization needs to see some internal improvement from the minors. If that improvement doesn’t come, then the window will truly start to close.
Rehabbing Pitchers
The Astros have long been secretive about player injuries, dating back to Luhnow’s days as the general manager. Of course, it doesn’t matter who is in the front office; this organization has generally avoided giving out too much information about injuries. Discomfort is the usual term tossed around, much to the consternation of the media and fans.
One area to monitor in 2025 is how the Astros handle the rehab of their pitchers currently recovering from any injury. Luis Garcia, for example, has already had three setbacks since last summer. Lance McCullers Jr., well, you already know that story. J.P. France was rushed back last year before right shoulder surgery. I wonder what the outlook ultimately looks like for Cristian Javier, who had Tommy John surgery last June. If there is another setback involving him, then listen out for renewed chatter about the club’s “return-to-play procedure”.