Two Points About the Astros’ Christian Walker and Manager Joe Espada
In the depth of winter, baseball news can be rather sparse. But I have two brief thoughts related to the 2025 Astros. So let’s get right to those thoughts.
1. Christian Walker Batting Average
On Monday, TCB had a nice summary article on what to expect from 1b Christian Walker. I won’t repeat all the good things to expect. The article mentioned that Walker’s batting average (career .250) is a hitting weakness. In my comment on the article I suggested that it is unlikely he will improve his batting average. The quick version is “this is who he is, and the good batting characteristics outweigh the negatives.” But I am going to expand on the comment now.
Fangraphs’ 2022 article by Ben Clemens documented the crucial change to Walker’s batting approach which had created a breakout season at age 30. So what changed? “In a word, swinging. In two words, not swinging…Pitchers throw more than half of their pitches outside the strike zone, and nothing good happens when you swing at those,” he wrote. For instance, Walker significantly cut down on his swings on the edge of the zone, which are essentially “pitcher’s pitches.”
Clemens contends that this selective approach by Walker is logical: “Want to tailor a good approach when pitchers are afraid of you? Cut down on your swings and force them to come to you. It doesn’t hurt that Walker is blessed with an excellent batting eye…”
With this approach, Walker may be sacrificing his batting average to some degree, in exchange for swinging to do damage on the ball.
In a 2023 interview with Fangraphs, Walker discussed a period when his batting average was low, which caused him to question his approach. Like any other batter, it bothered him when he looked up and saw a .170 batting average. But the solution was to ignore the batting average. Walker realized that the advanced “expected” stats (like x-BA) showed that his batting average should be significantly higher. He was hitting into bad luck: BABIP volatility, if you prefer a fancier term. Instead of tinkering with his approach to increase his batting average, Walker didn’t second guess himself and stayed with the process.
A recent Rotographs article examined the change in fantasy value for first basemen who are changing teams. Keep in mind that batting average may be of greater concern for fantasy purposes, because fantasy leagues accumulate points based on categories like batting average or hits. The article suggested that Walker’s BABIP and batting average may suffer somewhat because Minute Maid Park suppresses singles, doubles, triples, and overall hits in comparison to the more hit-friendly environment in Arizona. However, offsetting this decline, Minute Maid Park is much more favorable for home runs by right hand batters.
The Rotographs article foresees a HR vs. batting average trade off accompanying Walker’s move to a new ball park. “His FB% has finished in the mid-40% range in each of the last three seasons, as he’s traded line drives for home runs,” according to the article. “That’s good for his power, though bad for his BABIP and batting average. Perhaps this park switch could help him get back to the 20% HR/FB rate level he’s posted just once, during that first full season in 2019. “
The Steamer projection for Walker appears to reflect the change in ballpark. The projected batting average (.241) is lower than his career average. However, because the projected walk rate is higher than his career walk rate, the decline in OBP is minimal. The projected home run total of 32 is 23% of his total projected hits—slightly higher than his career rate of 20%.
Walker wasn’t signed for his batting average. His patient batting approach and ability to hit for home runs and extra base power are the most important characteristics.
2. Joe Espada’s Challenging Season
Joe Espada was a rookie manager last season. And it may seem like he faced a rocky road along the way—starting with a horrible start to the season. But I think the 2025 season may be a more challenging season for Espada. Normally the manager is part of the backdrop to team performance, mostly just trying to keep the team on an even keel. But my prediction is that the manager will be required to contribute more to the team’s make-up and performance in 2025. Some of the reasons:
- The Astros have lost two of their most important players (Bregman and Tucker), and this affects the character of the team. This may be more disruptive than the past few seasons when the Astros only had to replace one star at a time (i.e., Springer, Correa, and Gurriel). As the manager, Espada will have to mold a new team. That’s the challenge of maintaining team chemistry.
- Similarly, the Astros have two new players, Walker and Paredes, whom Espada must integrate into the team chemistry. Furthermore, Bregman, by all accounts, was a leader in the clubhouse. Espada will need to encourage other players to take on new leadership roles.
- In order for the Astros to effectively replace Tucker, it appears that the Astros will need to rely on platooning players, using rookies in different roles more frequently, and utilizing various tools to counter the deficiency in lefthanded power. In my mind, this means Espada’s actions setting and adjusting the lineup will have a more significant impact on team performance. Sure, the manager has always done these things, but the composition of the 2025 team will result in more complicated situations. And, therefore, the manager’s decision involving playing time (which in itself can affect players’ attitudes) are more important.
- And Espada also will have to navigate the changes in leadership among the pitchers. Justin Verlander played a role mentoring young starting pitchers, and he is now playing in San Francisco. Ryan Pressly appeared to be a leader of the Astros’ bullpen. However, news reports over the off-season frequently mentioned that the Astros were trying to trade him. I have no idea if that will affect his attitude or his leadership in the bullpen, but those rumors probably weren’t comfortable for Pressly.
These are just my opinions. But I suspect that Espada will earn his money this season.