Free agency starts today, and a couple of publications have released their respective contract estimations for the top options on the open market.
There were some interesting tidbits beyond the obvious takes that Juan Soto will challenge Shohei Ohtani’s AAV record. To keep it Astros-specific, Alex Bregman’s next contract estimations were slightly lower than I initially expected. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs has the star third baseman pulling in a five-year, $140 million contract ($28 million AAV), with the general expectation that he’ll remain an Astro. I think Jim Crane and Dana Brown would agree to a contract like that without much hesitation, mainly because it is only five years, and the AAV, while an increase from $20 million in 2024, isn’t an outrageous raise. FanGraphs’s median and crowdsource numbers lower Bregman’s AAV to roughly $27 million but increase the term to six years. In turn, we’re seeing a contract more in line with Matt Chapman’s six-year, $151 million extension, if not slightly more prosperous in the dollars.
Tim Britton of The Athletic keeps the AAV at $27 million in his projection but increases the term to seven years to push the contract’s overall value to $189 million. Again, I don’t think the $27 to $28 million AAV is necessarily a deal-breaker for the Astros. Instead, a seventh or even a sixth year may be too much for Crane. I don’t have any inside knowledge whatsoever, but I think Bregman will likely receive at least one six-year offer, perhaps even a seven-year one. If there is a bidding war for his services, any offer with that sixth or seventh year will possibly go a long way in determining the winner of his sweepstakes.
Yusei Kikuchi’s free agency is going to be an interesting case. Clemens and Britton have the southpaw signing for three years, albeit with different AAVs. The former has Kikuchi earning $17 million per season, to bring the total contract to $51 million, while the latter is higher at $21 million for $63 million across three seasons. It all hinges on how a front office feels about Kikuchi’s ten-start stint in Houston, with demonstrably better results than what he showed with the Blue Jays. But there aren’t many better options for a club not looking to break the bank on high-end starters than the left-hander. Houston could undoubtedly use Kikuchi’s services as the status of Cristian Javier, José Urquidy, and Lance McCullers Jr. remains uncertain for 2025. While the hope is that the trio can pitch at some point next year, the Astros were also burned by similar optimism for McCullers Jr. and Luis García earlier in the summer. Much like Bregman’s case, any reunion with Kikuchi will also depend on Crane’s appetite regarding payroll, as Houston is already near the first tax threshold.
The last 2024 Astro on these lists is Justin Verlander. A couple of years ago, we saw Verlander sign with the Mets for two years, $86.7 million. He stands to make far less this time around in free agency due to a dreadful combination: Worse results amid injuries. Britton has Verlander only signing for one year, $12 million, while Clemens is a bit more generous at $17 million for 2025. The median and average crowdsource figures are around $15 million for a single season. For as much chatter as the Astros needing another starting pitcher to help bolster the depth chart, Verlander isn’t a bad option on a one-year contract for around $15 million. Plus, we know how close he and Crane are, so never say never to a reunion. With that said, the days of leaning heavily on him are finished.