Some Lineup Thoughts

Honestly, I don’t care that much about the batting order, though I prefer when a club structures a lineup with an eye toward optimization. Yordan Alvarez hitting second earlier in the season, for example, was a move that I supported as it ensured he had more opportunities to hit. But when he hits third instead, well, I won’t raise too much of a fuss. The difference between hitting second or third in a lineup isn’t worth stressing out about. But when a hitter is struggling, where do you draw the line in the sand?

The Astros are at a crossroads in their season. I mean, that’s obvious. Following an encouraging couple of weeks, any progress was halted in Seattle, dropping the first three games of a pivotal four-game set. Normally, I would highlight the pitching staff, especially since their struggles are a key reason why this season started so poorly for Houston. Instead, it wasn’t mostly their fault for a change. In the past six games, the Astros have allowed only 14 earned runs. Only the Yankees, Marlins, and Cardinals have allowed less across the same period. This time it was the lineup who has played a large role in a recent string of losses, scoring only six runs in the past 54 innings. Also, there is the distribution of those runs, dating back to the last seven games.

So, yeah, this lineup is struggling to score runs. These poor stretches at the plate happen, without a doubt. The distribution of runs scored as of late feels more like an odd quirk than anything substantial. With that said, the overall struggles are worth mentioning. It also doesn’t help matters to face a potent pitching staff like the one that resides in Seattle. But the Astros’ issues at the plate can’t entirely be chalked up to a random poor stretch or running into an above-average staff. Let’s look at the last weeks’ worth of games to see where the production is coming from and, more importantly, where it isn’t.

Most of the lineup has largely struggled in the past week or so. Other than Yordan Alvarez and Jake Meyers, the regulars haven’t done much, if anything positive. Even Alvarez, who has a 137 wRC+ in that period, hasn’t hit with his usual power. Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Jeremy Peña have largely been ineffective. Yainer Díaz has noticeably struggled as of late. Trying to insert José Abreu back in the lineup at the expense of Mauricio Dubón was certainly a choice. Alex Bregman’s improvement earlier this month has evaporated just as quickly as it arrived. Jon Singleton has fallen back to earth a bit. Chas McCormick’s poor hitting to start the season and subsequent hamstring injury have allowed Jake Meyers to pass him for consistent playing time. On a team-wide level, the Astros have a 58 wRC+ in the last seven games, with only the Diamondbacks posting a lower mark of 57.

Normally I’d caution about small samples and I think that still applies to certain players. Tucker, for example, is a prime example. Altuve will likely bounce back soon. Peña’s revamped approach at the plate will help him avoid a prolonged slump, hopefully. Alvarez will likely be fine in the long term, as his Statcast data doesn’t indicate any area of high concern. If there is something to monitor, it lies in how much Alvarez is chasing outside of the zone but making less contact.

But some of these recent trends are only a continuation of a larger issue. We all know about Abreu’s struggles at this point, and I doubt we will see any sort of meaningful bounceback. Bregman and Díaz have both noticeably struggled this season. Their issues have largely limited the ceiling of this lineup. The same thought applies to McCormick. When at least one-third of a lineup is failing, then it isn’t a shock to see the overall team numbers struggle. A major reason why the offensive production hasn’t completely fallen off a cliff lately has been due to Tucker and Meyers. But if their production hits a snag without improvement elsewhere, well, we’ve recently seen the results.

At this point, I think the Astros are best served by letting Peña hit cleanup behind Altuve, Tucker, and Alvarez until further notice. I’d even start to consider Meyers hitting fifth over Bregman if the latter’s fortunes don’t change relatively soon. Victor Caratini probably deserves additional opportunities to catch if Díaz continues to scuffle. Joe Espada and Dana Brown have to find a way to incorporate Dubón and Singleton back into the lineup again, even if it comes at the expense of Abreu. The lineup will turn around, sooner or later. But there is a real question about its ceiling and how certain hitters respond will greatly determine the outcome.