Some Astros notes prior to the post-season

Framber, Yordan, and Playoff Strength

A few assorted topics on Friday, September 27.

Playoff Strength

Dan Symborski at Fangraphs wrote an article “Which teams are best equipped for the playoffs?” Some teams have rosters that maximize full season win percent. Other teams are better equipped for the short series approach in the playoffs. The post season allows teams to hide deficiencies in their depth to some extent. Bullpens become more focused on the top 3 or 4 relievers. The best position players will play every day, and the back ups are needed less. The top 3 or 4 members of the starting rotation become the focus of the pitching staff, The 5 through 6 rotation pitchers may be unneeded altogether.

Symborski uses his ZIPS model to display potential playoff team roster strength on a regular season vs. playoff configuration basis.

Symborski at Fangraphs

The article states that it assumes Yordan Alvarez will be available for the post-season. In the American League, the Yankees, Astros, and Orioles are the teams with largest increase in strength for playoff conditions. The Orioles and Astros are practically tied in playoff strength (with the Orioles holding a slim advantage (.015 vs. .011) in playoff construction. The Yankees’ playoff roster holds an advantage in strength over the Astros and Orioles, according to the ZIPS model.

Based on the ZIPS model, the playoff advantage held by the Astros is based on its core offensive strength (Alvarez and Tucker in particular) and the ability to maximize the use of Framber Valdez in the playoffs.

The Astros are likely to face the Royals or Tigers in the first round, although the Twins technically still remain a possibility. (The Twins have a very low probability of making the playoffs.) Of those three teams, only the Tigers show any increase in strength due to the playoff construction. This is due to their ability to rely upon Tarik Skubal’s overwhelming pitching in a short series and some ability to conceal the worst parts of their bullpen. The Tigers still remain at a roster strength disadvantage versus the Astros.

The other likely first round opponent, the Royals, take the biggest hit from their playoff construction, looking like a below .500 team in the playoffs. This is due to a weak bullpen and faltering offense, according to ZIPS. Take it for what it’s worth, but the Astros may face the worst playoff team in the first round. It’s also worth noting that the Guardians, which has a very high win percent for the season, also shows a decline strength due to playoff construction. The Guardians’ Win % strength declines to .514 in the playoffs—considerably below the Astros. The Guardians were one of the stronger teams in depth, which helped produce a great season W/L record, but the value of their depth is not as important in the short playoff series.

Last year, Symborski conducted a study of player characteristics which affect post-season performance vs. regular season performance. It turns out that home run capability provides an advantage because HRs are the most likely path to defeating very good pitchers. But other often discussed factors, such as post season experience and hitter contact rate have no particularly special playoff impact. If anything, it’s possible that three true outcome teams enjoy a very slight advantage.

It’s worth noting that Symborski’s caveat about Alvarez’s strained knee is important. Alvarez will stay in Houston rather than travel with the team for the season’s final three games. Although Yordan has begun to walk better, the inflammation still prevents the team from projecting when he will be available. He has yet to practice any baseball activities. If he returns for the playoffs, most likely he will only work out of the DH slot. If Alvarez is not available for the playoffs, that will severely decrease the Astros’ chances.

Chas McCormick

Like Alvarez, Chas McCormick will not travel to Cleveland for the final three games. Chas suffered a hand injury and is on the injured list. He has worked lightly in the batting cage, and is expected to take high velocity batting practice this weekend in Houston. If McCormick returns from the IL, it creates an interesting playoff roster question for the Astros Center fielder Jake Meyers has struggled on offense this month, and with Yordan in the DH slot, McCormick might be an attractive option to platoon in LF or play CF.

Although McCormick has struggled for most of the year, he has hit well since returning from a brief AAA demotion. In September, Chas has .391 batting average and 149 wRC+, 4th highest on the team in the month. Meyers’ offensive struggles are a cause for post season concern. Jake has 48 wRC+ in September.

Framber Valdez and CYA voting

Last week I suggested that Valdez’s final start of the season might determine whether he could attain a 3d or 4th ranking for AL Cy Young Award. Indeed, pitchers at the top of the AL CYA leaderboard (according to Tango’s model) were pitching for playoff contending teams. Framber Valdez and Logan Gilbert were neck and neck, competing for the 3d rank in the CYA projection model, and both pitchers went up against each other on Saturday—a game which the Astros ultimately won to clinch the AL West title. Gilbert’s performance wasn’t helpful to his chances, and Valdez’s performance wasn’t good enough to hold off other contenders.

Tango X-itter below:

Valdez’s performance was “middling” and Gilbert’s outing was “rough,” according to Tango. Corbin Burnes and Cole Ragans were also pitching well in playoff significant games. It appears less likely now that Valdez can improve to a No. 3 ranking. Keep in mind that reliever Emmanuel Clase is not on the model’s leaderboard, but is likely to get a significant number of votes for CYA. If Clase is added into the mix, Tango is speculating that Valdez could end up 5th or 6th in the ranking.

You can review the CYA projection model at Fangraphs.