Kyle Tucker, bulpen depth, and a fourth starter conversation.
Note No. 1 – Kyle Tucker Picking Up Where He Left Off
We all knew it would take Kyle Tucker a little while to shake off the rust. I mean, he went over three months between his injury in early June and his first game back in early September. There was also no rehab assignment as Tucker jumped right back into the starting lineup on September 6 against the Diamondbacks. It would naturally take some time for him to adjust back.
That was arguably the case in his first 25 plate appearances since his return. Across those six games, Tucker hit only .263/.375/.316 (107 wRC+) with five hits, including only one extra-base hit. Again, this kind of start wasn’t exactly a surprise. Considering the circumstances, it would’ve been unexpected to see him tear the cover off the ball immediately upon his return. The hope, however, was that he could ramp up with little time relatively speaking to shake off any rust. Starting September 14, I think he has done a good job about that, hitting .400/.514/.733 (244 wRC+) with three home runs.
Both samples are extremely small and Tucker won’t continue at that torrid 244 wRC+ pace. But it was a much-needed boost to a lineup that is without Yordan Alvarez for at least the next two games. Tucker’s absence proved difficult to overcome as his start to the season — 176 wRC+ in his first 262 plate appearances — was quite impressive. They’ll need more of that version of Tucker to survive if Alvarez is out for a prolonged period. So far, so good based on the results since his return.
Note No. 2 – Bullpen Depth Being Tested
By fWAR, the Astros bullpen is in the bottom tier in baseball this season. Six clubs have received less value from their relief corps this season and only the Mariners remain in the postseason chase. As it stands, Houston runs the real possibility of having one of the weaker bullpens in October. An odd statement to type out considering they also employ Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu.
That fact speaks to the lack of quality depth on the roster. Tayler Scott, a surprise contributor this season, is now on the IL and it remains to be seen if he can be counted upon again this season. Héctor Neris has provided depth since his return, but he hasn’t been immune from occasional poor results. Kaleb Ort has shown flashes in addition to Bryan King, but your confidence in them only extends so far. The same thought applies to Caleb Fergurson, although his peripherals look more encouraging than his ERA at the moment. Shawn Dubin and Seth Martinez are still around, being shuffled back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. Forrest Whitley is still on the 40-man roster, I guess.
If the Astros make the postseason, which they should, it’ll help once they can move Ronel Blanco and/or Spencer Arrighetti to the bullpen to build up the depth chart. With that said, outside of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu, there isn’t much to feel confident about with this bullpen. Even the big three have been prone to their fair share of suboptimal outings, as we can recently attest to a few days ago with Hader.
Note No. 3 – The Fourth Starter
Talking about the fourth starter, if necessary, it remains to be seen who will end up with the job. Thanks to the nature of the Wild Card round and the number of off-days in the ALDS, it isn’t like the Astros will need one immediately. Both Arrighetti and Blanco will make the postseason roster in the bullpen. There’s also Justin Verlander to consider, but his recent starts don’t exactly exude confidence.
But, say if a fourth starter becomes necessary, then who could start? It depends. I think Arrighetti’s swing-and-miss potential likely outweighs Blanco’s, with the latter likely benefitting from a lower BABIP on the season (.323 for Arrighetti, .224 for Blanco). We’ve already seen some regression on this front from Blanco, with a .316 BABIP since August 1. I like the thought of Arrighetti’s stuff playing up even more in a relief role, but I also think he holds the higher ceiling the rest of the way as a starter. But Blanco’s floor, especially if he isn’t overextended, is too tempting to pass up.
In any case, I think the Astros will be fine if Blanco starts with Arrighetti on standby as a multi-inning relief option. But the roles can simply be reversed and I don’t think there is much of a dropoff. The key for the Astros in any case will be not to let either pitcher probably see an order more than twice in a single game. Ultimately, I’d be surprised if Verlander starts a postseason game for the Astros. The decision will come down to whoever is pitching better between Arrighetti and Blanco.