Could a familiar face solve a key issue?
On the Texans sister site Battle Red Blog I run a weekly feature called “The Value of Things.” At the core of every problem there is a question of value. The Astros would have loved to have Gerrit Cole, George Springer, Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel, and Carlos Correa. They obviously couldn’t. The problem is that every player have value (thus the value of things) but there is an inherent disagreement over the value.
Players and their agents come in with their own concept of value as we have seen with Scott Boras and Alex Bregman. Anyone that believes in free market economics cannot begrudge a player of asking for what he thinks he is worth. The Astros would be foolish to award such a contract. So, we are at an impasse. Either Bregman goes elsewhere or he considerably reduces his demands.
A similar thing happened following the 2022 season. Yuli Gurriel had been a fixture of all of the title teams up to that point and certainly a fan favorite. He also was becoming a marginal big league player. He followed his his 3.7 bWAR 2021 campaign with -0.2. Furthermore, I would say the Astros got that right as he put up -0.5 in 2023 and 0.1 in 2024.
Yet, every player has value. Gurriel does not have value as an everyday first baseman. This is why the Astros moved to Jose Abreu in the first place. At the time, this seemed like a defendable position. We now know it was a mistake. All big market teams go through this at one time or another. They hand out large contracts that end up being busts. However, would Gurriel fit in a different role?
The Setup
We should establish the parameters of why I am making this suggestion. For one, the Astros have half of a pretty good first base option in house for a very low salary number. For another, they still have 19.5 million going out the door to Jose Abreu who is playing nowhere. So, throwing a bunch of money at a Christian Walker or Peter Alonso feels like throwing good money after bad.
First, let’s take a look at what Jon Singleton did at the plate last season. I’ve mentioned it before and it bears repeating. The Astros don’t need a new first baseman. They need a new first baseman against left-handed pitchers. You don’t have to spend a ton of money to solve a tiny problem.
Against Righties: .258/.350/.423
Against Lefties: .145/.207/.250
When funds are limited you pinch pennies wherever you can. Yuli Gurriel would likely sign for the veteran minimum at this point. That gives you the ability to re-sign Bregman or spread the remaining money that would go to Bregman for a lesser third baseman, but league average left fielder and/or centerfielder.
Below is a look at third base and left field if the Astros choose to move away from Bregman. Imagine what happens if you add Gurriel (more on him below) AND add one of these other players. I will show their 2024 OPS+ and their career OPS+. All of them would come for relatively average salaries.
Third Base
Yoan Moncada: 117, 106
Amed Rosario: 94, 95
Paul Dejong: 97, 93
Left Field
Mark Canha: 99, 113
Michael Conforto: 116, 120
Jesse Winker: 118, 118
None of these guys are going to Cooperstown. However, they provide a higher floor than what you have been getting from those spots. We could include center field as well, but that would require a trade. So adding a Gurriel along with two players from these lists would give the Astros a deeper lineup that would hopefully avoid some of those dry spells they go through when Tucker, Yordan, and Altuve aren’t mashing.
The Case for Gurriel
I was in favor of the Astros moving on from Yuli when they did in 2022. I didn’t think he would get any better and there is a possibility he could be washed next season. Even when given his better than average performance with the Royals, there is always the possibility that he could turn into a pumpkin at any moment. However, here are his slash numbers against lefties since 2021.
2021: .326/.394/.530
2022: .265/.298/.441
2023: .250/.314/.315
2024: .095/.259/.095
I should note that those numbers from last season came in 27 plate appearances. Yet, if we look at the difference between his slash numbers for his career against righties and lefties we can see a distinct difference.
Righties: .282/.325/.431
Lefties: .275/.330/.453
Even if he just produces 75 percent of the career numbers against lefties he will be considerably better than what Singleton would likely do. A .700ish OPS might be asking a lot. A veteran minimum deal can easily be walked away from. However, before we do that we should add one more thing to the case. Here are his defensive runs saved from 2020 to 2024.
2020: +2
2021: +5
2022: -2
2023: -1
2024: +2
2022 and 2023 were his only seasons below average according to defensive runs saved. I always thought the call of Yuli being a “Gold Glove” defender was overblown, but he has legitimately been a good one for most of his career. For a reference, Jon Singleton was -8 last season according to defensive runs saved. If nothing else, Gurriel could serve as a defensive replacement late in games.
Realistic Expectations
It is quite possible that any of the rookies that the Astros trotted over there last season could offer these same things. You are essentially asking a guy to come up with about 150 decent plate appearances and defend the position reasonably well. That’s not a huge ask. However, I have always believed that big league teams should never be in the position of assuming that a young player will do these things.
A veteran minimum deal affords you to have some insurance in case a young player does not step up. The Astros have been spoiled by the performance of young pitchers, but young position players have not been nearly as successful as a general rule. You would not be asking Gurriel to do much and hopefully someone would prove better than him. A veteran minimum contract is not too much to eat with our current payroll.