September: Judgement month for the Houston Astros

MLB: AUG 29 Royals at Astros — Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

One month left. Will it be only one more month, or can Houston extend the season?

Welcome to September. Five full months of baseball, and so much still up for grabs. For the Houston Astros they sit over .500 and 1st in the AL West. Yet, that means nothing. Even if conventional wisdom says that Houston has all but secured the West, that assumption is about as thin as their remaining MLB-quality depth. All possibilities, good and bad, are still in play. What does this pivotal month bring? A few thoughts:

The Fortunes of this Team Rest on a Knife’s Edge: At this point, you’ve memorized the fact that Houston has the best record in the majors since their 7-19 start. Yet, they currently face one of the more hellacious stretches of any team, playing 14 games against teams with winning records and 11 straight with over 70 pre-September wins. After a rough start, they did survive with a 8-6 run. However, the last month of the season will have a balance of winnable games and playoff caliber struggles. While the Silver Boot is back in Houston, there are still divisional tilts (more later), along with the season-ending matchup at Cleveland, a possible playoff preview. Yet, the Sun Tzu maxim of knowing yourself and your adversary in competition also applies to Houston. With all of the injuries and ill-timed slumps/regressions, the Astros’ margin of error equals zero. The pitching staff’s woes don’t need repeating, but the key bats must stay healthy. A serious injury now, especially to Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez and/or Diaz, becomes the coup de grace for Houston’s season.

Playing the Final Hand: While the Astros signed Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel to bolster a weakened outfield (more later), time’s up for reinforcements. Whoever’s in the organization come September 1, that is it for Houston. Of those within organization, there is not much hope for any major shot-in-the-arm returns, save a certain outfielder. Coming into trade deadline, the team likely figured to pick up a pitcher (check) and maybe an infield bat (no check), but they also had the promise of key reinforcements coming off the injured list. Yet, with September here, only Verlander is back. Garcia and McCullers will not appear this season. Maybe Tucker will get back before the post-season…maybe.

If Defense Wins Championships…: Not a sexy topic, but playing solid, fundamental defense in the field (catching balls, throwing runners out, avoid silly errors), is vital to victory. What made the 2022 Astros so dangerous was not just its pitching and hitting prowess. Houston rarely made the dumb error; they just capitalized on the other team’s mistakes. This year, it is the Astros prone to making the inexplicably dumb play. They get charged with plenty of errors (tied for 9th most in MLB), but the non-charged errors really stand out (10th worst in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved). Not fielding a routine grounder to cover 1st from a runner, misplaying a relatively easy fly ball, a pitcher not taking the easy/certain play, and that’s with Houston’s pitching on a massive resurgence (6th best ERA in MLB). The end of the shift should not have harmed the team this badly. However, this squad, especially in the past few weeks, is making fielding way too exciting and stressful, and not because they make the highlight reel web gem.

The Weakest Link for the Astros: At the trade deadline, the concern centered on starting pitching/infield play. The outfield, even without Tucker, seemed ok, or at least, not an apparent weakness. Now, it could be argued that starting pitching is not the bigger concern, as the rotation posts a sub 2.75 ERA for August. As for the infield, well, 1B is still the lineup black hole, but there is enough strength/potential to overcome that (aside from poor defense at inopportune times). Yet it is the outfield now supersedes them as nightmares for the fans. With Tucker out, the squad loses a top bat and strong defender. Alvarez is a rotational left fielder, but his bat is too valuable to risk injury in left field. What’s left has not been the most encouraging of options. Meyers has long cooled off from a torrid early summer. McCormick is back in the minors and the team just signed two guys off the street in as many weeks. Throw in the defensive issues, and this could be the type of flaw that ends a season for a playoff hopeful.

Seattle is Not Going Away: The rise of the Astros came at the expense of the Seattle Mariners, who went from 10 games up in mid-June to as far back as 5.5 games. Most in the national media see the AL West as fait accompli. Curiously, Seattle doesn’t agree. Currently, they 6 games back. However, they face an easier schedule (.481 opponent winning percentage vs. .495 for Houston) for the closing month. They still possess a strong pitching core, which will win regular season games. Most importantly, they still have one more series with Houston in the final week of the season (at Houston). Seattle currently leads the season series 6-4 with one more win giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the margins between Seattle and Houston stay within +/- 3 games, that series could decide the season for both teams.

Can This Team Win 13 Games in the Post-Season? Even if Houston holds on to the West, they face the prospect of no bye in the playoffs. Currently, they sit 3 games back of the next division leader (Cleveland). Houston lost the season series to Minnesota (4-2), did win against KC (4-3), and will have a chance to win it against Cleveland to end the year (Houston won 2-1 in Houston). Perhaps that may be enough for that coveted Wild Card bye. The AL East is even less likely to collapse. The Yankees and O’s hold a significant lead over Houston. New York dominated the season series 6-1, but at least Houston claimed the season matchup with Baltimore 5-2. Even as dangerous as Houston can be in the playoffs, they may have to win four playoff series, with only one with home-field (potentially). Can they manage that? Then again, home-field doesn’t always equal post-season success for this team either (see 2019, 2021, 2023).

All of that to say that Houston’s season-long goals still remain in play. Perhaps in better shape now than in June, but playoffs do not remain an absolute certainty. Everything from a Wild-Card Bye to missing the postseason could happen, and none of it shocking. At least no fan can complain of boredom.