Thoughts on Fangraphs’ rankings for position players….
Why do so many experts expect the Astros to be among the American League’s best clubs again? To a significant extent, their favorable opinions are guided by the quality of the lineup. The everyday consistency on both offense and defense provides a high floor for the Astros’ win-loss projections.
So, let’s spend a few minutes dissecting the Astros’ non-pitcher positional rankings produced by Fangraphs. Fangraphs wrote separate articles for each base position, but if you look at any one article, you will see links to the discussions of the other positions. The rankings are by position, based on FG’s Depth Chart projections, so it’s not strictly a ranking of individual players. That is to say, team depth plays a significant role. Teams may have an excellent starter at a position, but sometimes they rank behind teams with two or three slightly above average players sharing time at the position. Or you have a star hitter like Yordan Alvarez who splits his time between LF and DH, but is so good that he propels the Astros to No. 1 at both positions. As you might guess, WAR proves to be a useful metric for positional value.
The Astros positions rank as either cream of the crop (top five) or middle/lower division (15 -25). It’s the five elite position rankings (DH, LF, RF, 3b, 2b) which make the Astros’ lineup so high ranking. But the middle/lower division position rankings (C, 1b, SS, CF) can tell us something about potential weaknesses, as well as the potential for improvement. Sure I might prefer to tweak the rankings here or there, but overall I don’t have substantial disagreement with the Astros’ rankings. So let’s look at each group (high and low rankings).
Upper Division Rankings
DH (No. 1) Yordan Alvarez uses 420 plate appearances at DH to overtake the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani as the Top DH team. Alvarez produces almost as much WAR as Ohtani in 50% fewer plate appearances at DH. Singleton, Diaz, and Altuve each add 0.1 WAR at DH. Alvarez is a generational slugger, but the one area of concern (according to Fangraphs) is the history of injury.
LF (No. 1) Oh, Alvarez gets 189 plate appearances here too. Chas McCormick is projected for 392 PA and FG notes that he is coming off a break out season. But Alvarez is the key to LF value, because (in FG’s opinion) McCormick is more “Good”than “Great.” Alvarez can produce more WAR than McCormick in just over half the plate appearances.
RF (No. 4) Kyle Tucker is very good and near the top of RF rankings. The RF competition is very stiff. Tucker misses out on No. 1 because of the three teams who display super star players in right field: Acuna (Braves), Soto / Judge (Yankees), and Tatis, Jr. (Padres). FG correctly says that Tucker is one of the game’s “most consistent and underappreciated players.” Fangraphs also identifies a potential weakness for Tucker: a decline in defensive value in 2023. If Tucker can return to playing top rated defense, he could leapfrog one or two of the RFers ranked above him.
3b (No. 2) If you are wondering why the Astros should attempt to retain Bregman, look at the No. 2 ranking at 3b (behind only Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez). The Astros wouldn’t have much chance to be more than a lower division team at 3d base if Bregman leaves after 2024. As the FG article points out, the situation differs from the departure of Carlos Correa because there is no Jeremy Pena waiting in the wings.
2b (No. 4) Jose Altuve again is near the top (3.7 WAR) among 2d basemen, with Dubon expected to add 0.1 WAR at this position. Marcus Semien is No. 1 with 4.4 WAR; Altuve is projected for 3.7 WAR. And, based on his history, it’s easy to see Altuve exceeding the projection. If Altuve maintains his high BABIP, he could match the No. 1’s 4.4 WAR, and easily exceed Gleyber Torres’ (Yankees at No. 3) slightly higher 3.8 WAR. I would probably take the over on Altuve exceeding 3.7 WAR.
Middle / Lower Division rankings
Shortstop (No. 19) How far has Pena fallen since the 2022 award winning season? Based on the playoff MVP hype, it seems like quite a bit. But despite the 2022 acclaim, there were signs at the time that Pena didn’t profile as a top offensive player. At No. 19, Pena is 10 slots behind his predecessor, Carlos Correa, who ranks No. 9. Pena remains a good defensive player, but his offensive potential is the question mark. The article points to the complete loss of his HR power in the second half of 2023, and concludes: “Perhaps he can find a way to access the power he showed as a rookie without dropping his OBP back under .290.” That’s what we hope for—but how likely is it?
I am struck by what separates Pena from higher ranked shortstops: On Base Percent. Pena’s projected OBP is .310, which pales in comparison to the expected OBP of the Top 10 shortstops: Seager .367, Lindor .333, Witt .326, Turner .337, Henderson .342, Betts .377, Bichette .334, Correa .341, and Swanson .323.
Pena is overhauling/simplifying his swing. Hopefully, it works and Pena can rise to a higher ranking. If he improves his offensive approach, it’s not unrealistic to believe that Pena can exceed the 2.7 WAR projection and perhaps achieve 3.0 or higher WAR. Is he really worse than the Angels’ Zach Neto (3.0 WAR) or Boston’s Trevor Story (2.7 WAR)?
Center Fielder (No. 18) What is LF’s gain is CF’s loss. Last year, Chas McCormick spent more than half his starts in CF. Boosted by Chas’ break out offensive season, the Astros were 4th in CF WAR due to the contributions of McCormick, Dubon, and Meyers. This season the depth chart projects the following playing time split: 56% Meyers, 19% Dubon, 18% McCormick. (The depth chart foresees a small amount of playing time for Loperfido, Leon, and Corona in CF—with no accumulated WAR.) Fangraphs calls Meyers “the second coming of Myles Straw.” (Straw was assigned to AAA last week, coincidently.) By that, I’m sure FG means “all defense and no offense.” But Meyers does bring potential HR power, and Straw does not. So, there is something to hope for in terms of an offensive resurgence. Is it realistic? We will find out. As FG acknowledges, Meyers has hit well this spring. Meyers is projected to attain a .699 OPS and 1.4 WAR. If Meyers could raise his SLG over .400, we might see 2.0 WAR from him. If Meyers is struggling on offense in the second half, it’s possible we could see a Loperfino call up (assuming Joey hits well in AAA).
1b (No. 26) An odd thing about 1b is that the differences in WAR among first baseman is fairly small. The WAR positional adjustment to 1b is partly responsible: first baseman start with a sizeable negative WAR just for being a first baseman. FG projects Jose Abreu with 1.2 WAR over 595 PA, with Singleton adding 0.1 WAR. I doubt that’s what the Astros were hoping for when they signed Abreu to a $58 million contract. Abreu is projected to put up a 107 OPS+, which is fine as far as it goes—but 1b is an offensive position, and the average starting first baseman is 111 OPS+. However, the projection is considerably better than the 2023 actual.
Given Abreu’s late season performance in 2023, I’m slightly more optimistic than FG—I think Abreu can produce middle of the pack (or better) first base performance. Abreu’s projection is only slightly below No. 18 Anthony Rizzo’s (Yankees) projection of 1.3 WAR, and Abreu could easily surpass him. However, a major difference at the level of team position: the Yankees are expected to obtain more WAR (0.3) from the 1b back up (LaMehieu). Will the Astros call up a 1b back up (such as Loperfido or Cabbage) if Singleton doesn’t provide enough offense? Indeed, Abreu is projected to achieve higher WAR than many of the 1b ranked higher than him (Naylor and Bell, for instance), but those teams have better production from their depth. As FG points out, Abreu doesn’t pull fastballs like he formerly did, possibly due to aging. I suspect that Abreu will transition to a lower power first baseman who can hit the ball the other way with greater frequency, walk occasionally, and continue to produce RBIs. Although his ISO may not exceed .160, likely he will hit 15 – 20 HRs—maybe more if he learns to use the Crawford Boxes.
Catcher (No. 14) A middle of the pack ranking doesn’t sound great—-until you realize how much better it is than last year. (The Astros ended the 2023 season ranked 25th in Catcher WAR.) The depth chart projects a 59% Yainer Diaz and 41% Victor Caratini playing time split. FG projects WAR of 2.0 for Diaz and 1.2 for Caratini—the resulting 3.2 WAR is quite respectable.
FG has some interesting things to say about Yainer’s offensive potential. Diaz is “a slugger who happens to play catcher.” He is not just a catcher with power, he is legitimate slugger. FG adds: “Diaz’s offensive profile is an extreme outlier. He swings at everything, but he does so much damage on in-zone pitches, especially those high and inside, that it doesn’t matter. He takes advantage of the Crawford Boxes at his home ballpark but isn’t reliant on them, spraying nearly half his homers to the opposite field.”
Diaz has some rough edges to work out on the defensive side, primarily framing skills. But Caratini perhaps helps fill a gap there—he is an excellent framer. The Brewers are well known for honing catchers’ framing skill. Hopefully, Caratini can be a good mentor for Diaz.
Yainer Diaz will probably regress offensively this year—he was just too good last year. But he will be a productive hitter and catcher, probably exceeding the high .700’s OPS projected by FG.
So what are your thoughts?