With the World Series firmly in the rearview mirror, the offseason can start in earnest. Heck, Anaheim and Atlanta didn’t even wait 24 hours after Walker Buehler’s last pitch to swap players, with Jorge Soler heading out to California and Griffin Canning likely to become the next great reclamation project for Alex Anthopoulos. We’re also now within the exclusive five-day window when teams can negotiate with their own free agents without fear of interference from other organizations. In other words, most teams aren’t waiting around to process the emotions of the Fall Classic. They’ve already moved on.
For the Astros, this offseason will likely be their most consequential winter in a long time. Dana Brown also enters his second offseason as the club’s general manager. It is perhaps the first in which we can start truly seeing his vision for the roster take shape. For as much as James Click inherited a roster built by Jeff Luhnow, Brown has spent his first two seasons on the job with a roster again primarily built by Luhnow with parts bearing Click’s influence. With the club now at a crossroads with multiple long-term decisions to make in the near future, we finally get to see how Brown wants to form the roster into his image.
Houston’s offseason plans center around Alex Bregman’s free agency, whether he stays or signs elsewhere. Odds feel high that he will attract offers outside of Jim Crane’s comfort zone but never say never, I guess. But Bregman’s decision could quite well determine the long-term path for Brown and the Astros. Re-signing him means there aren’t likely any other moves to help bolster the roster other than picking up a player already on the fringes. If he doesn’t, Brown may have some wiggle room financially to address a combination of first base, outfield, starting rotation, and bullpen. In any event, Brown must be creative in filling out a roster that has become increasingly flawed in recent years, regardless of Bregman’s decision.
#1: Third Base
Again, an obvious position for the Astros to address. If Bregman leaves, Eugenio Suárez could be an interesting option if the Diamondbacks decline their $15 million team option on him for the 2025 season, but the odds are that his price tag would remain prohibitively high for Houston’s taste. Otherwise, barring a trade, there isn’t much to like about the third base market. Luis Urías, Yoán Moncada, Paul De Jong, and Amed Rosario are all veterans, yet uninspiring choices. Depending on what happens with the other corner of the infield, Zach Dezenzo might be the guy at the hot corner next year.
#2: First Base
By Baseball-Reference’s version of Wins Above Average (WAA), only two teams received less value from their first baseman than the Astros (-3 wins): The Yankees (-3.2 wins) and the Reds (-3.4 wins). Sure, the former was in the World Series just a couple of days ago, while the latter is a young club on the way up, but Houston’s first base situation was far from ideal. The idea of another season platooning Jon Singleton and Victor Caratini isn’t optimal. An upgrade, even with José Abreu’s contract remaining on the books for one more year, would be beneficial. Christian Walker and Pete Alonso are likely outside the club’s price range — another theme for this offseason. Locally from The Woodlands, Paul Goldschmidt is certainly a possibility, although his recent performance doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a bounceback. Carlos Santana is another name to monitor. Ty France is a low-risk, high-reward option that this team should consider. Unlike third base, though, more options are available to the Astros in free agency.
#3: The Outfield
Isn’t it a poor reflection on your depth if Ben Gamel and Jason Heyward were thrust into prominent roles late in the season? Probably so. Other than Kyle Tucker, and when Yordan Alvarez was in left field, the Astros’ offensive output from their outfield was, at best, average. More times than not, it was subpar. Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick were liabilities at the plate at varying points, but both were nearly unplayable by the end of the summer. Mauricio Dubón can play center field in a pinch, but he is never the ideal starter out there, offensively or defensively. McCormick’s regression at the plate, in particular, stung the most, posting an abysmal 66 wRC+ in 267 plate appearances. With both outfielders arbitration eligible, it is worth wondering if the club will tender the duo a contract or look to trade at least one to obtain someone else in return.
There are certainly names to monitor in free agency, but with a payroll already near the first tax threshold, I doubt we’ll see Brown wade into the chase for Juan Soto. Anthony Santander would be a nice fit in left field, but there is some possible regression to consider with a still high price tag. Time to fire up the Michael Conforto rumors again? Thankfully, there isn’t a lack of outfielders who won’t demand lucrative contracts. But adding even a platoon bat seems advantageous for the Astros, considering how poor the bottom half of the lineup looked throughout 2024.
#4: Starting Rotation
The top of the rotation is likely set with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown being the presumptive one-two punch in 2025. That’s a good start in building a rotation. From there, the Astros certainly have options to fill out the remainder of the staff, with Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, and Luis García all in line to claim a starting role. But the depth behind those five starters is murky at best. The hope is that Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., and José Urquidy all return at some point next season, providing a boost to the rotation. Ryan Gusto, A.J. Blubaugh, Miguel Ullola, and Colton Gordon could be options, but Houston needs someone proven to help fortify the depth chart. To lean exclusively on rehabbing pitchers and minor leaguers is never a good way to operate. It was why the acquisition of Yusei Kikuchi was so vital in their postseason push after the trade deadline. Another veteran starter to absorb some innings certainly wouldn’t hurt.
Ultimately, the Astros have a longer list of needs than we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. The infield corners and the outfield are probably the two areas that this club should devote more resources to. I am also curious to see how Brown pivots if, or when, Bregman signs elsewhere. Tucker and Valdez are entering their last year of arbitration, with both scheduled to enter free agency following the 2025 season. It would behoove him and the Astros to at least explore the possibility of trading them. To be clear, I am not saying they should trade them, but this club is at a crossroads. Not exploring that possibility means that Brown isn’t doing his job. This roster has become increasingly flawed with Bregman on it, and his leaving wouldn’t help matters.