As I detailed last week, the Astros aren’t projected to be flush with extra cash to spend as it relates to the tax thresholds if they’re intent to avoid paying another year’s tax next season. Only accounting for projected arbitration raises without any free agent signings or trades, Houston will have around $4 million to spend before reaching the first tax threshold of $241 million. In other words, unless Jim Crane is willing to pay another tax in 2025, Dana Brown is in a position where he will have to be “creative” in order to improve this roster.
Creative can mean a few things for the Astros. Most importantly, it all hinges on how much Crane is willing to spend in relative to the tax thresholds. Brown using the “creative” term earlier this month didn’t exactly inspire confidence that the organization will continue to exceed the first level, not to mention the second level of $261 million. In turn, I’ve been brainstorming some ideas in how the Astros could be creative if payroll does become an obstacle.
The Non-Tendering Route
Houston currently has ten players eligible for salary arbitration for the 2025 season, including Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker. Based on MLB Trade Rumors model, those ten players project to earn around $58.225 million. It is likely a foregone conclusion that Valdez, Tucker, Mauricio Dubón, Luis García, Bryan Abreu, and Jeremy Peña will all be tendered a contract. That leaves four players — Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, José Urquidy, and Penn Murfee — as possible non-tender candidates.
Of those four, I think the Astros will non-tender two of them, an outfielder and Urquidy. McCormick and Meyers could be available in a trade, but if nothing materializes on that front, I don’t think Houston carries both on its roster next year. With Urquidy scheduled to miss at least half of the season, I wonder if Brown will non-tender him but then offer him a modest two-year contract to possibly lower his AAV for 2025 while retaining him for a hopefully a full season in 2026 at a discount. Murfee, with a projected $800K salary for next season, offers bullpen depth, so I am not entirely confident that they’ll non-tender him. But the Astros could shave off a couple of million if parting ways with McCormick or Meyers.
The Trade Route
Where the Astros could generate the most savings financially, and possibly help replenish the farm system at the same time, is possibly trading Valdez and/or Tucker. The duo is currently projected to earn a combined $33.6 million in their last year of arbitration. While only one year of club control works against the Astros, they are among the best at their respective positions. Someone will pay a premium to acquire their services if made available.
I think the possibility of trading one or even both likely increases if Bregman signs elsewhere. I mean, it is certainly plausible that Bregman leaves and the Astros retain Valdez and Tucker, content with recoupoing a draft pick in the 2025-26 offseason when they possibly leave in free agency. But for a club that was already having issues with Bregman, with no heir apparent ready, it does leave thought to wonder if the Astros are better served in the long term by trading away two of their best players to help bolster any reboot or soft rebuild.