Not saying they could or should, but what if they did?
Welcome to the “Hot Stove” season, when the main baseball action focuses on free agency and trades. For the Houston Astros, this figures to be one of the more critical off-seasons in recent memory. The status of players like Bregman, Tucker, Valdez, Kikuchi and others figure to dominate the headlines. Yet, the biggest overall baseball story surrounds the recent free agent outfielder Juan Soto.
Already a World Champion and coming off one of the greatest contract seasons in recent history with the New York Yankees, Soto seems primed to cash-in bigly. A stellar hitter without too many major injury concerns and only 26 (yes Houston, he actually aged from 21), the market for this hitter figures to be among the hottest since…Ohtani last season.
Currently, no reporting exists to indicate that Houston will make a legitimate run for Soto’s services. However, since this is the off-season, when reality doesn’t have to intrude all that much, let us consider what if Juan Soto makes Daikin Park his new business address?
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The Offensive Concerns from 2024 Not a Worry Afterwards. Perhaps Soto isn’t at the top of the list when it comes to best bats in MLB. However, it won’t take long to call roll to get to his name. His contract year is perhaps the best example of playing into a better contract. (.288/.569/.989, 41 HRs, 109 RBIs). Imaging that type of bat near the top of the order, with Altuve, Alvarez and Diaz? Maybe if Bregman and/or Tucker are still around? That might scare more than a few pitching staffs. The RBI totals should be of significant joy to Houston, as they saw a frightening inability to actually score runs. Hits? No issues (3rd overall BA in the game). Runs? Only 12th in the game, and offensive droughts struck at the worst time. With a bat like Soto, crooked numbers over multiple innings should be the standard, not the exception.
Pressure? What Pressure? If Soto came to Houston, pressure would be his constant companion. Between the money spent to bring him in, coupled with the individual and team expectations, few could imagine the spotlight on the outfielder. Yet, this would be old hat for Soto. From his breakout with the Nationals, to being the centerpiece of franchise-altering trades between San Diego and Washington, to being the biggest trade acquisition for the Yankees this past off-season, crushing pressure follows this young man wherever he plays. Soto isn’t immune to slumps (see his early time in San Diego), but think about the crucible he put himself into the past season. A Yankee, on a team with arguably the greatest expectations, in the most rough-and-tumble sports media market in the nation…oh, and also having to perform in the post-season? Shifting over to Houston might seem like a mere afternoon pickup softball game. Some players have documented post-season struggles (looking at you, Judge). Soto ain’t in that category.
Home Sweet Home. Historically, Soto finds the confines of the Houston ballpark quite comfortable. As painful as the 2019 World Series is in the minds of Houstonians, remember what Soto did amid the over-the-top praise from Joe Buck (.438 BA, 5 hits, 5 RBIs, 1 HR). Then, factor his performance in the opening 4-game set at Houston in his first regular season action with the Yankees. If Soto planned to make Houston his long-term professional home, then he could make a great, great career in the blue-and-orange.
Deceptive Roster Flexibility: Bringing in Soto would likely see Houston enter deep into the CBT rates. Yet, his presence might offer some degree of flexibility for Houston, at least in the short term. As it stands in this scenario, the outfield figures to be Tucker, Soto, Valdez and another player or two. This would give Houston a bit of a glut of outfielders. Hence, perhaps both Meyers and McCormick should have their bags packs. One or both could be sent out for prospects to restock one of the lowest rated farm systems in the majors. This doesn’t mean there won’t be roster pain (see later), but Soto might offer a way to help Houston compete now and reinforce for the future. Or, perhaps this opens the door to off-load Tucker for a major haul to reinforce the farm system.
New Face of the Franchise: Right now, Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez are the faces of the Astros. For better or worse, that is who people think of when they think of Houston. Yet, Soto could easily supplant the older guard. Also, Soto wouldn’t have as much of the stigma of 2017 to hurt any endorsement prospects. He’ll likely cleanup in local endorsements, and should be a national figure. The Forever 21 endorsements in Houston are just begging for Soto to get on-board. Maybe not as much money as the New York markets, but way less in taxation, at least before he buys a house…
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Negatives
Top Heavy: Bringing in a player like Soto likely means that Houston will lack the monies to bring in any other major bats/arms. Sure, the top of the order rates among the best in 2025. A lineup with Altuve, Soto, Alvarez, Tucker (maybe), and Diaz could scare the tar out of any pitching staff. Yet, after that? Oh, and what if the injury bug hits? Tucker and Alvarez have missed significant times with injuries in the past few seasons, and Altuve is not an Ironman, especially in his later years. Soto isn’t without his own bruises, but that doesn’t mean a major injury couldn’t sideline him at any time. With so much invested in Soto, the remainder of talent is likely at replacement-level or AAAA. Not exactly a recipe for sustained championship success.
Bye-Bye Bregman, and Tucker, and Valdez, and…As aforementioned, the Astros, should they land Soto, will have had to pay out a LOT of money. Given that the Astros don’t have the revenue streams of teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or Mets, this means Houston will see other stars leave. Bregman doesn’t come back in 2024, and Valdez and Tucker depart in 2025, if they aren’t traded away before then. Factor that Houston will still pay $30M in “dead money” to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero, and it is likely that Soto joins a team that consists of replacement-level or worse players in the mid-to-later stages of his contract. That doesn’t factor the return from injury of so many of the starters, which could offer some major reinforcements, but might constitute a gamble gone wrong.
Nightmarish roster inflexibility: Soto’s arrival could provide some short-term flexibility, but longer-term prospects will be difficult for Brown to navigate. Given that Soto is easily looking at a $600M+ deal, Houston, should they make that move, will reside in the higher tax brackets for the foreseeable future. Thus, draft pick compensation and international bonus pools will be smaller. For a team like Houston that cashed in so effectively with the international market and its player development of talented prospects, this could severely hurt the overall organizational depth.
Is Soto ready to be the full-time heel? Having played successfully in New York, Soto shouldn’t be a stranger to boos and heckling from other fanbases. However, coming to Houston, that might be the one team more despised than the Yankees or Dodgers. Sure, the national media will caveat everything by noting Soto wasn’t with Houston in its “cheating” days. However, would he, a face-of-the-franchise caliber player, really be ready for that level of abuse? Sure, he could learn a lot from Altuve, but every player handles things differently.
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Overall Assessment:
This is a thought experiment, so this article doesn’t advocate one action over another. That being said, signing Soto doesn’t seem like a realistic option for Houston. Sure, every team with ownership that possess even a mere modicum of baseball intelligence would think about bringing in a player like Soto. He certainly could turn the outfield from a weakness to a strength in Houston. Yet, the costs associated with him, along with other issues facing the Astros, make it highly unlikely this will come to fruition. Realistically, Soto remains on the East Coast, most likely in the New York zip codes, but don’t rule out DC or another AL East team making the move.