With the trade of Kyle Tucker, the Astros Will Need to Figure Out Options for the Outfield
With Kyle Tucker on his way to Chicago, the Astros outfield is looking pretty anemic. The Astros outfield was without Kyle Tucker for July and August 2024; during those months, the Astros’ outfield posted a wRC+ of 87 and ranked as the fourth worst offensive outfield in baseball.
The Astros can hope that Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers rebound in 2025; in fact, that may be a necessity. But even if that happens, the Astros still need a good outfield bat to replace Tucker. And, it would be really helpful to acquire a left handed bat for the outfield.
The most obvious way to address this need is to sign a free agent. How much can the Astros spend? We are speculating at this point. Nor do we know the answer owner Jim Crane would give us. And, a lot depends on whether the Astros re-sign third baseman Alex Bregman. If Bregman stays, very little payroll room is available. If he signs elsewhere, some payroll room will be freed up.
My objective is to discuss the potential free agent outfield options available to the Astros. I’ve included expensive, mid-range and cheap options. The contract estimates are based on a range derived from Fangraphs crowd sourcing estimates plus a higher number that reflects recent FA market trends.
Highest Cost
Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez are expected to require the highest contracts. Because both Santander and Hernandez received a Qualifying Offer (QO), signing either would require the Astros to give up 2d and 5th round draft picks. Given the importance of rebuilding the farm, the Astros probably should avoid free agents with attached QOs, if at all possible.
Santander (age 30) is estimated to get a 4 year contract ranging from $80 M to 96 M. Given the market, it’s also possible the number of years could grow to 5 years. There is no denying that Santander brings plenty of HR power, with 44 HRs in 2024. Santander’s 2024 was a high water mark for him—his .814 OPS exceeds his career OPS of .776. I have some concerns about his ability to sustain those numbers, given that his x-SLG is 50 points below his actual SLG. One could argue that he is likely to face regression next season (particularly given that his norm is a SLG around .460, rather than the .507 SLG in 2024). Santander also appears to be a declining fielder (-7 defensive runs saved in 2024), and he probably should be limited to LF in the Astros’ ballpark with some sharing of the DH position on the road. ,On the plus side, Santander is a switch hitter who gives the Astros protection from both LH and RH pitchers.
My take? I have some fears that Santander and his declining defense would not age well in a 4 or 5 year contract. If the contract is something like 3/$60 M, the risk might be reduced to acceptable levels. However, lengthier contracts (which are expected) would be problematic.
Hernandez (age 33), a former Astros player, is estimated to garner a 3 year contract ranging from $69 M to $83 M. Hernandez is a home run hitter (33 in 2024) who also Ks a lot. I’m not spending much time on this option because it is very likely he re-signs with the Dodgers. Reportedly, the Dodgers have been hammering out details with his agent. Teoscar also has posted poor fielding metrics in the OF (-27 and -28 over his career, according to DRS and OAA.
Mid-Range Cost
Jurickson Profar is a 32 year old switch hitter who can play corner OF positions. It is unusually hard to nail down a contract estimate for him—mostly because of the contrast between his 2024 season and previous seasons. He is estimated at 3 years at $45-$54 M. But his 2024 season was so good that you might see a team offer 4 or 5 years…or maybe just one year. The one-time Rangers’ elite shortstop is now a versatile outfielder. 2024 was a peak season for Profar, in which he put up 4.3 WAR, which is about 1 win more than either Santander or Hernandez. The FG projection for 2025 WAR is approximately the same for Profar, Santandar, and Hernandez. Over his career, Profar is a 99 wRC+ hitter, but he hit a high mark of 139 wRC+ in 2024 and looks like an all-around good hitter. But he is only one year removed from a 78 wRC+. Perhaps it’s just coincidence, but Profar’s seasonal wRC+ seems to alternate between above average and below average each year since 2018. Profar achieved a BABIP and Exit Velocity in 2024 which is significantly higher than previous seasons—raising some concern about future regression. The advanced metrics indicate that Profar is a weak defender in the outfield (-8 DRS and -6 OAA in 2024). On the positive side, Profar has a consistent record of good plate discipline, with accompanying near elite K/BB rates. My inclination is to view the merits of a Profar signing based on whether the contract cost is at the lower end of the range or not.
Joc Pederson, age 33, is a favorite of mine, because arguably he is a better hitter than Santander, but will likely cost considerably less. He probably is one of the best platoon LHBs available in the MLB. His career numbers are not always consistent, but he has posted consistently good offense over the last three seasons with an average OPS of .848. Pederson’s OPS became more consistent once teams decided to use him as a platoon bat. He posted good offensive stats for the Diamondbacks in 2024: 23 HR, .275 BA, 151 wRC+ and an OPS over .900. His 2025 projection is .249 BA with 125 wRC+. Pederson also has posted good walk rates over his career. Supposedly he made some marginal corrections to his hitting in 2024 which resulted in a career year. The contract estimate: 2 years at $28 – $34 M. The downside is that Pederson is not a great defensive fielder in the outfield (-5 to -3 in 2023), and would probably be limited to LF.
Mark Canha, age 35, primarily plays OF and 1b. He has a lengthy career as a useful and versatile MLB RHB. His contract estimate is 1 year at $8 – 10 M. He posted a 102 wRC+ in 2024 and was a consistent above average hitter in prior years. However, a declining trend in both his power and batting average may indicate that he is in the midst of age-related decline. Canha has outstanding walk rates, which prevented his offense from cratering in 2024. Canha’s defense is average at 1b and slightly below average in the OF. Canha is at the border between mid-range and cheap. He could be a useful signing if his price is low.
Max Kepler, age 32, is a power hitting LHB outfielder who was long viewed as a Twins’ core player. But he encountered an injury-plagued sub-par season in 2024. He ended the season on the 60 day IL with a knee injury. So, any interested team would require a close review of his medicals. Despite the poor results in 2024, Kepler is only one year removed from a 123 wRC+ and 24 HRs in 2023. FG projections for 2025: 102 wRC+ and 15 home runs. His contract estimate is 2/$22 M. Kepler has a reputation for good outfield defense, but his injuries may have taken a toll on his fielding. If Kepler’s price falls enough, and his medicals check out, he might become a bargain.
Austin Hayes, age 29, is a RHB outfielder branded by a FG writer as among the “three average-ist players in baseball.” In keeping with that moniker, Hayes posted a 98 wRC+ in 2024. However, he is only one season removed from 3 consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 102 – 112. Looking more closely at 2024, he was traded at mid-season from Baltimore to the Phillies. His wRC+ was 104 with the Orioles but only 86 with the Phillies. We can see why the Phillies non-tendered him, but the potential exists for above average performance in 2025. His career slash line is .261/.313/.432 (OPS .745). On defense, he is slightly below average, but he has a strong arm. Crowd Source provided no estimates for a Hayes contract, but I am guessing 1 year at $8 – $9 M.
Cheap Contracts
Jason Heyward, age 35, is a veteran LHB OF who played for the Astros in late 2024. He acquitted himself well, with several clutch plays on offense and defense for the Astros. Moreover, the Astros felt that Heyward was a positive contributor to clubhouse culture. His contract estimate is 1 year at $6 -$7 M. He posted a 94 wRC+ in 2024 and the FG projection views him as basically average in 2025 (99 wRC+). Heyward still has some pop in his bat and may be expected to hit 10 HRs in part time play. At his age, Heyward’s offense is more suited for platooning. In 2024, he posted a 101 wRC+ versus RHP but only 39 wRC+ versus LHP. Heyward has a reputation as an elite defender, but with age, his fielding range is about average, but his throwing arm continues to be elite.
Ben Gamel, age 32, is a veteran LH platoon bat who also played for the Astros in late 2024. Unfortunately Gamel suffered a lower leg injury before the season ended. If Gamel has recovered from the injury, he might be an attractive low cost target for the Astros. Gamel performed very well for the Astros in his short stint—posting an OBP- heavy wRC+ of 119. Gamel doesn’t have a lot of HR power, but his plate discipline and walk rate are excellent. His xwOBA (.346) was very good in 2024. According to Statcast, he was elite or near elite in BB rate, Chase %, Squared Up %;, and Launch Angle sweet spots. The FG projection is for average offense from Gamel. His defense is slightly below average, but he exhibited a strong throwing arm from the corner OF spots. Crowd Source didn’t estimate his contract, but I am guessing 1 year at $5 or $6 M. IMO, it’s probably a no brainer for the Astros to invite Gamel to spring training.
David Perralta, age 37, is a professional LHB platoon hitter who can play the corner OF positions. He is frequently traded at the deadline when teams are looking for LH help. The down side is his age; but he has been surprisingly productive for a 37 year old outfielder. In fact, he posted a 115 wRC+ in 91 games for the Padres in 2024. He has exhibited an above average wRC+ in seven of his previous 10 seasons. If anything, he shows the value of platooning. His defense isn’t great, but not that bad either. I would estimate a contract cost of 1 year at $4 – $6 M.
Other names of interest in the cheap bin:
Former Astros
Enrique Hernandez
Ramon Laureano
Good CF defense
Michael A. Taylor
Much Traveled
Tommy Pham
Former Top Prospects
Eloy Jimenez
Dylan Carlson
Left Handed Bat
Eddie Rosario
Thoughts, People?