A few notes on the week:
Bullpen
Bummer to burn Hader yesterday He only threw 9 pitches but that’s still 3 appearances in 4 days. I imagine he’s “emergency only.”
Neris and Ort also have pitched two consecutive days. At least they get an extra half-day of rest before tonight. Espada still has five other relievers but you’d prefer saving Pressly and especially Abreu for save/hold situations only. A very good Arrrighetti start or a big performance from the offense would help a lot to reset the bullpen.
The Ferguson performance hurt yesterday, as you never want to see control problems up five runs in the 9th. But let’s look at the big picture: Between August 9 and yesterday, he’d thrown 15 IP, given up 2 ER, walked 8 and K’ed 16. He’s been fine and fans should greet his likely appearance in tonight’s game with some confidence.
Travel to SD
You can take Amtrak straight from Anaheim stadium to downtown SD, where the Padres play. This would have been a great road trip for fans as nothing beats seeing the country by train. Very easy bus trip for the Astros after yesterday. I hope Hader took the team out to his favorite restaurant on the water last night. The only other road travel is in ten days, when they have an off day after Seattle to head to Cleveland.
Moving Week?
The Astros play 7 games this week: 3 @SD, 4 vs. Anaheim. The Mariners play 6 games, they host the Yankees for three and then go to Arlington. It’s not inconceivable given the opponents and the general difference in quality between the teams that the Astros go 5-2 and the Mariners 3-3; or even 4-3 for Houston and 2-4 for Seattle. Either scenario would put the Astros up 6 games with 6 to go. Nothing has been easy, for sure, but this series against SD is the one where Espada needs to go max lineup all three games, and the team needs to reset the bullpen.
Even if Houston is up by five games a week from today, one win against Seattle clinches it. So while the division lead didn’t increase this weekend despite the sweep, sand is running out of the dial for our northwest rivals.
Crazy playoff Scenarios and Clinchings
No team has clenched a playoff birth yet. That will shift very soon as roughly half of the playoff-bound teams will clinch by the end of the week. In the AL, the Yanks and Guardians should at least clinch playoff births before the weekend, and in the NL, the Phillies and Brewers will clinch their divisions in similar time. The Astros have the largest division lead in the AL, but it’s only 4.5 games and things could always get crazy in the other divisions. The Orioles are 7 games up on Detroit and Seattle with 12 games to go. Padres, meanwhile, have the 7th best record in MLB but are only 2.5 games up in the race for the 3rd WC. Probably no team looking at greater variance with everything between a 2 seed and missing the playoffs on the table.
Barring a collapse or a crazy winning streak, the Astros are locked into the 3 seed. Cleveland and NYY are only separated by one game in the race for the 1 seed. Detroit and Seattle are only 2.5 back of the Twins (3 back in the loss column). As the 3 seed, the Astros (somewhat unfairly, IMO, but I’ll take it) face the third WC team. Minnesota is cratering. It’s not entirely crazy that Houston could face Seattle in the wild card series. That’s best 2 of 3 with that rotation. Have you looked at their stats recently? It’s like the Seattle pitchers came off a conveyer belt. They walk nobody but they give up HRs. 3 of 5 have a WHIP under 1.
Arrighetti
Watch this Arrighetti start closely. He probably only has one more start, against the inept Angels. Tonight he’s going against a very good lineup. I don’t think he’s going to start a playoff game, but he’s probably in the running for a bullpen spot. Can he flash the stuff that can generate outs against elite hitters like Tatis, Machado, Arreaz? Could he be someone who could bridge a wild playoff game that’s 7-5 Astros in the 4th inning by going once through a lineup? Do you trust him more than Ort or Scott in the 5th inning against a team like Minnesota or Cleveland?
I kinda think the 4th starter role is Blanco’s to lose and JV is probably off the playoff roster. But this week does a lot toward deciding the fate of the final slots for the pitching side of things.