The Astros have had an unprecedented run of success in the postseason and are looking to do more damage this October.
They didn’t take the easy route, but the Houston Astros are headed to the playoffs for the eighth-straight season. But this time, the road to the AL West title was difficult, even exasperating.
The Astros began the season with a thud, going 0-4 in March and the early season went from bad to worse. Houston lost 60% of its games in April. Clutch hitting failures; bullpen lapses; starting pitcher meltdowns—you name the problem, and they had it. Each week it seemed like another starting pitcher was injured. By early May, the Astros were 12 games under .500. By May 7, their odds to win the division were down to just 18%.
The Astros trailed the Seattle Mariners by 10 games in the AL West standings on June 18. In an astonishing reversal, Houston tied the Mariners for first place 24 games later and then took the division lead on the following day. The Astros went 49-29 in June, July, and August to erase that sluggish start.
Houston has dealt with multiple injuries throughout the season with multiple starting pitchers missing time. Kyle Tucker, one of the team’s best young hitters, missed three months with a shin fracture. Slugger Yordan Alvarez is currently dealing with a knee issue and his availability for the postseason is in question. Alvarez suffered a sprained knee sliding into second base on September 21. He is a critical cog of Houston’s offense hitting .308 with 35 home runs and a .971 OPS in 147 games this season.
Starters Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, and J.P. France all had stints on the injured list this season. The Astros had to turn to young pitchers like Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. The youngsters took their lumps early on, but as the season progressed, both began to turn their season around—which unsurprisingly coincided with the team’s furious comeback in the summer.
Despite the injuries, Houston’s rotation finished fourth in the majors with a 3.63 ERA. Astros starters ranked first in both ERA (3.22) and FIP (3.37) after the All-Star break. The mid-season trade for Yusei Kikuch helped solidify the rotation for the stretch run and contributed to the team’s amazing second half pitching. Kikuchi went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 3.06 FIP in 10 starts after the trade.
For the postseason, we should expect Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Kikuchi to front the rotation. If a fourth starter is needed, manager Joe Espada could choose Arrighetti or right-hander Ronel Blanco. Justin Verlander at age 41 is a future Hall of Famer, but his role for the postseason is unclear at this point. Since returning from the injured list in August, Verlander has an 8.10 ERA in seven starts and a 5.48 ERA for the season. He has pitched in 24 playoff games over his career, but his role may be diminished this postseason.
Bullpens often have an outsized impact on playoff games, but it is generally the back end of the bullpen that deserves the attention. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly are the “big three” in the Astros’ bullpen. The three relievers combine to average 11.5 K/9. They are a significant reason that Houston’s bullpen is ranked second in “stuff” on the Stuff+ metric.
Hader has been bitten by the home run bug on occasion, but set an Astros record with 29 consecutive saves. He is second in the American League in saves and leads all relievers in strikeouts. His teammate Abreu finished third in the majors in strikeouts, giving Houston one of the best 1-2 punches in any bullpen. Pressly has experienced an up and down season, with a relatively high 1.34 WHIP, but has a history of playoff success.
Assuming that Alvarez will return for the playoffs, the top half of the Astros’ batting order is quite impressive. Among qualified MLB batters, Alvarez is in the top five in wRC+, OPS, OBP, and SLG. Among MLB batters with at least 100 PA, Kyle Tucker is No. 2 in wRC+, No. 3 in OPS, and No. 4 in Isolated Power (ISO).
They are surrounded by Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yainer Diaz. All of which are above average hitters. Altuve and Bregman are veterans with more than 425 plate appearances and 48 home runs combined in the postseason. Altuve is particularly prolific with a .340 OBP and .510 SLG in the postseason.
Jeremy Pena at shortstop and the first base platoon of Jon Singleton and Victor Caratini provide slightly above average offense. With Alvarez likely to occupy the DH slot, recent pick up Jason Heyward and utility player Mauricio Dubon are likely to see playing time in the outfield. Heyward, formerly with the Dodgers, has provided notable contributions on both offense and defense. Jake Meyers provides outstanding defense in CF but has struggled at the plate recently. Chas McCormick could return from the injured list and share time with Meyers.
The Astros have appeared in the ALCS in seven-straight seasons and have made four trips to the World Series during that span. The 2024 team had to overcome plenty of obstacles to get back to October but this a battle tested group that shouldn’t be overlooked.