Without Kyle Tucker and, presumably, Alex Bregman, the lineup will look noticeably different in 2025. It’ll help that Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker plan to fill this void somewhat. I don’t think the lineup’s production with the switch will drop that much. FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections seemingly agree with the Astros’ currently projected sixth in batting runs, even if that position feels a tad high in my mind, considering the outfield situation. I am willing to be wrong, though.
That offensive projection indicates that the infield positions and Yordan Alvarez will do much of the heavy lifting at the plate. But of those depth chart projections, I was particularly curious about Jeremy Peña. According to those projections, Peña will sport a 107 wRC+ with better power results, namely a .149 isolated power and a .414 slugging percentage with 19 home runs. If that came to pass, with his defense, that’d be a boon for the Astros in 2025. Of course, projections aren’t infallible. Plus, I have to see Peña change from the type of hitter he has become in the past two seasons to buy in.
While his rookie season was an up-and-down experience, with the last boost occurring just in time for the postseason, I was excited to see how he would grow as a hitter. But I mistakenly assumed one thing would remain relatively the same: Peña’s power. If I showed a new baseball fan a picture of Peña, they’d likely think he is known for his power numbers. Plenty of home runs? Perhaps a good amount of doubles? Well, he did that during his rookie season. I remember watching those games. The results were indisputable. We are not talking about cheap home runs — sorry to certain hitters — that barely scrap over the Crawford Boxes. Calling him a power threat was accurate, even in spurts. But those power numbers since his rookie season haven’t manifested again.
Is Peña’s Power Still On?
2022: .173 ISO, .426 SLG, 22 HR in 558 PA
2023-24: .123 ISO, .388 SLG, 25 HR in 1,284 PA
That 2023 season, in particular, was challenging to watch. He didn’t have a home run after July 5th, including the postseason. Without that power, his impact on the lineup was relatively muted. Last year was a bit better, but there were still issues. Yes, there wasn’t a long streak of no home runs to track. Progress, I guess. But a decent chunk of his offensive production occurred with infield hits, leading baseball with 31. The previous season, he was also 10th with 21 infield hits. Those 52 infield hits weren’t the only factor in his hitting production. Still, they are likely to be why he was roughly average in the past two seasons, according to wRC+, although his power numbers continued to lack.
We’ll need to see a couple of differences for Peña to reach his power projection in 2025. First, his ability to convert his fly balls into home runs and extra bases.
- 2022: 17.3% HR/FB
- 2023: 8.5% HR/FB
- 2024: 9.6% HR/FB
And elevate the ball a bit more, although 2024 was an encouraging sign.
- 2022: 32.9% FB%
- 2023: 26.6% FB%
- 2024: 31.5% FB%
The difference in those rates begs the question: With an increase in fly balls in general, why didn’t we see more home runs from Peña?
To keep it general for today, yes, Peña experienced a rebound in his average launch angle and his flyball rate compared to 2023, but that is only part of the explanation. I think it comes down to the contact quality on his fly balls. Take his rookie season, for example. In 2022, he was in the 65th percentile in barrel rate and the 42nd percentile in sweet spot rate. In 2023, he was in the 10th and 28th percentile, respectively. It is easier to spot why he didn’t produce as well at the plate that year. In 2024, Peña’s barrel rate rebounded to the 28th percentile, but his sweet spot rate dropped to the 6th percentile. While those percentile rankings are not exclusive to fly balls, those measurements at least provide some context into his overall struggles. In other words, when Peña was putting the ball in the air, the quality of that contact still wasn’t great for the past two seasons.
Barrel per Batted Ball Event Rate on Fly Balls, 2022-24
- 2022: 27.3%
- 2023: 15.3%
- 2024: 20.9%
This topic deserves more analysis, but I think it does an okay job of laying the foundation. Ultimately, Peña has maintained a roughly league-average hitter profile in his first three seasons, although not achieved precisely the same way. The 2025 season may prove once and for all that his 2022 season was an outlier. I’m leaning toward believing that possibility, but again, I am willing to be wrong if his power numbers continue to rebound.