With 21 games remaining, what do Fangraphs ROS projections show?
We are headed into the final stretch of the season. Let’s examine what fangraphs’ projections say about the remaining 21 games of the season.
Fangraphs Playoff Projection
We will focus on the Fangraphs projection model. The Astros have 97.1% playoff odds and 96% probability of winning the AL-West. (The 1.7% difference equals the odds of winning a Wild Card spot.) The Mariners are in a much worse position with 7.9% playoff odds and 3.1% probability of winning the AL-West. The Astros are projected to win 88 games. If you glance over the division projections generally, you will see that all of the division leaders in the AL and NL have playoff odds higher than 97%. This reflects, in part, that there isn’t much time left in the season.
Ben Clemens has an interesting article about the projections for Mets and Braves, two teams currently tied for the final NL Wild Card slot. Although the two teams are tied, the Fangraphs model gives much better playoff odds to the Braves over the Mets. Obviously this can stimulate some, uh, discussion by fans of the two teams, but Clemens provides an in depth explanation as to why the projections vary significantly from the current seeming 50/50 tie. This has nothing to do with the Astros, but the article provides some insight on how one should evaluate the team projections as this time of year.
Rest of Season Player Projections
Now let’s look behind the curtain and examine the Fangraphs projections for Astros’ players over the remainder of the season (ROS). The Fangraphs projection for players’ ROS in the remaining 21 days is crucial to the model’s assessment of wins and losses over the remainder of the season. And, yes, the projections vary as new information is added over the course of the season.
For the heck of it, I summed the projected ROS WAR for the Astros’ players, added replacement level wins, and compared the resulting Win% to the Fangraphs model’s ROS win percent. The resulting WAR summed to 12 wins (58.4% Win Percent), which is basically the same as the model’s ROS win percent for the Astros (.589). The player projections are driving the results.
The Astros’ position player ROS projection for wRC+ and WAR is shown below.
Fangraphs Depth Chart
- Yordan, Tucker, Bregman, and Altuve lead the way over the remainder of the season. But the number of remaining games is so short, under performance by any one player is unlikely to significantly effect the result. Yordan Alvarez is a beast, but so few games remain that he falls short of even 1 Win.
- I find it curious that the projection foresees McCormick and Meyers as nearly the same player over the remainder of the season. McCormick’s 102 wRC+ is slightly higher than Meyers at 96, but Meyers has a slight edge in WAR due to defense. Is McCormick’s above average projection realistic? Maybe. Over the last two weeks, McCormick’s batting average is .435 and his OPS is 1.067. Perhaps he will be a little more like the McCormick of 2023.
- Note that none of the Astros batters is expected to put up negative WAR over the remainder of the season. That is a good thing,
The Astros’ pitchers ROS WAR are shown below. I have compared the projected FIP, f-WAR, and WAR-RA9. The f-WAR is based on FIP, and the WAR-RA9 is based on actual runs allowed. For comparative purposes, I averaged the two forms of WAR.
- According to the projection, the “Big Three” starters are (in order) Valdez, Kikuchi, and Brown. Valdez and Kikuchi are expected to have a higher WAR-RA9 than fWAR. Brown is expected to have a higher f-WAR than WAR-RA9. The projection expects the Big Three to generate 54% of the total pitcher WAR over the remainder of the season.
- Verlander, Arrighetti, and Blanco are expected to produce a similar amount of f-WAR over the remaining games. This is probably a realistic assessment that the three pitchers are in the mix for the No. 4 starter position.
- To no one’s surprise, Josh Hader is projected to be the best relief pitcher, and his f-WAR for the period is higher than two of the starting pitchers (Blanco and Arrighetti). The projections expect Pressly, Abreu, and Ferguson to be the next best three relievers.
- As for Neris, Scott, and Ort, those projections seemingly expect regression.
What is your reaction?