As the Astros construct their team this off-season, the projections are a good starting point
We all know the challenges that the Astros face this off-season: Can they afford to re-sign Bregman, and, if not, who will play 3d base? With the payroll straining against the competitive balance tax, can the Astros improve other parts of team?
Before we try to figure all of that out, the first question is where do the Astros stand right now in terms of probable wins and losses? This is a starting point. That’s one reason the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric can be useful. The accumulated team WAR can provide a simplistic conversion of expected player performance into team wins and losses. This is less sophisticated than a comprehensive team projection, but it can provide us a ballpark type estimate.
And, in terms of a starting foundation, the Astros are in better shape this most teams. Last week, Fangraphs discussed the off-season rankings for MLB teams based on their current player resources. The methodology used ELO rankings, and even with an unresolved 3d base situation and free agent losses in pitching, the Astros ranked 4th best, behind only the Braves, Dodgers, and Phillies. The Astros’ current players project to put up the 4th best offensive WAR (behind only the Orioles, Dodgers, and Braves) and the 6th best pitching WAR. The article discusses some of the off-season challenges mentioned above, but concludes: “the Astros’ roster looks older than you’d like, but they’re still talented enough to project to be the best team in the American League.”
Since ZIPS player projections are not yet available, I will rely on Steamer projections. I would prefer to use both ZIPS and Steamer projections, but it probably doesn’t make a big difference. For the most part, Steamer and ZIPS produce very similar projections on an individual player basis. Steamer projections are not perfect, but they give us an unbiased idea of what to expect in 2025.
The 2025 Astros’ position player projections are here, and the 2025 Astros’ pitcher projections are here. Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs both utilize 48 wins as the win total for a team consisting of replacement level players. The cumulative WAR for hitters and pitchers is added to the replacement Win/Loss record.
For pitcher WAR, I summed the projected WAR for the top 15 Astros’ pitchers (excluding Lance McCullers Jr., whose availability I consider too uncertain). The pitcher fWAR sums to 14.4 wins. (This number would be fractionally higher if RA9/WAR was utilized instead.) This projection assumes that Luis Garcia, Jr. will return from the IL and pitch about 130 innings. This assumption reflects considerable uncertainty, given the unknowns as to when he might return and how many innings he might pitch.
The position player projections are interesting, and perhaps some would consider them optimistic. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are expected to dominate on offense. Steamer projects Yordan Alvarez to put up the highest wRC+ in baseball (172) and Kyle Tucker to post the 7th highest wRC+ in baseball (149). Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are projected for some beneficial regression (compared to 2024). The McCormick and Meyers wRC+ come in at 102 and 98, respectively. The projections also indicate that the Astros could piece together a decent (albeit not spectacular) platoon at 1st base. Singleton is projected to hit 14 HR with a 105 wRC+ Dezenzo is projected to hit 5 HR and put up a 99 wRC+ Caratini is projected to be a 106 wRC+ hitter. For my purposes, I assume these three hitters will share equal playing time at 1b.
I also assume that Diaz gets 70% of the catcher playing time and 10% of the DH time. In addition, Alvarez gets most of the DH playing time and only 10% of the LF playing time. I assume that Dubon receives 70% of the utility playing time, with minor leaguers like Melton, Whitcomb, Kessinger, and Leon getting the remaining utility/back up time.
The table below shows the wRC+ and WAR by Astros position, assuming that Bregman returns as the 3d baseman. However, I also show a season win total with and without Bregman. As shown, the Astros are int he range of 92 wins if Bregman stays, but the total falls to 88 wins if he leaves—with the likely win total depending on whom replaces him.
Fangraphs Projections
Some thoughts:
- The Astros’ runs created for the offense is above average at all positions except CF and the utility/backup. That’s a pretty good starting point for team construction this off-season.
- The results are optimistic because it assumes no major injuries hinder the top hitters (Altuve, Tucker, Bregman, Pena, and Alvarez are all based on 600 – 700 plate appearances.) Injuries happen—and they can reduce the wins considerably. The table also assumes that the Astros rotation will be healthy, and this can change dramatically—which is why I previously argued that the Astros should acquire an additional starting pitcher. Furthermore, this is why projection models produce more realistic results than the simplistic approach, since they can run thousands of simulations.
- The utility back up position players are projected to be relatively weak, which compounds the damage when injuries occur. This may indicate that the Astros would be well advised to add better platoon and back up players.
- The projected wins are dependent on some uncertain factors. For instance, if McCormick and Meyers return to their weak offensive performances of 2024, the win percent without Bregman could be 85 or 86 wins instead of 88 wins.
- Another factor which makes this table optimistic: the calculation assumes that the Astros can avoid any negative WAR players. However, the use of minor league call ups and other reserves can result in negative WAR performances, and it often is difficult to stem the damage before it becomes significant. In 2024, the Astros accumulated more than -5 WAR from an assortment of players on the offense and the pitching staff. That can be the difference between a contending and non-contending team.
- If Bregman signs elsewhere, it will be difficult to fully recover the “lost” wins. Lower tier options (like Moncado and DeJong) are likely to recover less than one-half of the loss. Higher tier options which are sometimes discussed (Adames or a trade for Arenado) might compensate for something like 60% of the lost wins. And the latter come with their own challenges in terms of payroll cost, draft pick compensation or trade compensation.
- If the Steamer projection for Astros’ first baseman is correct, then the value of upgrading the position with a first baseman like Goldschmidt or Santana is probably 1 win or less.