With Justin Verlander completing his rehabilitation successfully, it’s worth asking how exactly the six-man rotation will work for the final 38 games of the season.
WHAT’S AT STAKE
The Astros are competing for a playoff spot and potentially a bye. They have three off days the rest of the season. The rise of the 2024 Astros and the corresponding collapse of the listless Mariners means the Astros hold a 5 game lead, with only three head-to-head games left. According to Fangraphs Playoff Odds, the Astros have an 88.9% chance of winning the division and an 18% chance of getting a bye. Still, the Astros have not been the most consistent team, and are in the middle of a tough gauntlet, with upcoming series against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Kansas City, all seemingly playoff-bound teams. They’re currently facing a solid Boston team, and have tough series in September against Seattle, Cleveland, San Diego, and Arizona.
Securing a top 2 seed would mean getting 5 days off and avoiding the Wild Card game, most likely against the third-place team in the AL Central, which begins only one day after the final regular season game. Securing a bye would mean five days off.
WHAT’S THE WORKLOAD SITUATION?
Here’s how much each SP has thrown at the MLB level or the minor league level, limited to regular and postseason, the past three seasons:
Framber Valdez: 226.1 / 210 / 137.2
Hunter Brown: 130 / 162.2 / 134.1
Justin Verlander: 195 / 180.2 / 71
Yusei Kikuchi: 100.2 / 169.1 / 138
Ronel Blanco: 51 / 125.1 / 134
Spencer Arrighetti: 106.2 / 124.2 / 119
Blanco is in unchartered territory. Arrighetti is close to it. Brown would pass it around the third week of September, JV is 41 years old, and has only reached 100 IP in 2 of the last 5 seasons. Kikuchi looks in good shape and Framber looks in great shape.
HOW WOULD THE SIX-MAN PLAY OUT IF THEY JUST RUN IN STRAIGHT?
With 38 games, the math isn’t hard, Blanco and JV, the starters for today and tomorrow, would get 7 starts and the other four starters would get 6 starts. One would play it straight if all things were equal and all pitchers were equally in danger of fatigue. But we know that that’s not the case.
HOW ABOUT JIGGLING IT AROUND?
Framber and Kikuchi are the starters best equipped to keep current workload levels. Framber is the staff ace and Kikuchi has yielded 6 ER in 4 starts, sporting a 2.42 ERA since coming south. Giving them one more turn may make it likely that they need one fewer turn in the playoffs by skipping the wild card.
I ran a simulation in which Framber pitched on normal (four days) rest for this long stretch, jumping the line effectively, skipping everyone except Kikuchi. By doing so, Framber and Kikuchi would start 15 of the final 38 games, instead of starting just 12 of the final 38 games, with Framber getting 8 starts and Kikuchi 7. JV would keep his 7th start. After tonight, Blanco would only start 5 of the final 37 games. Brown and Arrighetti would get five more.
CONCLUSION:
I’m sure there are people with spreadsheets figuring out every scenario and getting paid for it. To my mind the two starters requiring the most protection are Blanco and Arrighetti. This judgment is based simply on the fact that one is already past his previous high in IP, and the other will do so in his next start. Although all of the starters have collectively dragged the team to first place, Framber gives the team the best chance to win. In fact, he’s 8-0 in his last ten starts, all of which have resulted in Astro victories. And this scenario wouldn’t even max Framber out. He’d only pitch on four days rest five out of his final eight starts. Since he missed a few starts in April, he’ll be well under his innings threshold from the past two years no matter what.
Brown and Espada haven’t said what they’ll do, but I sure hope they don’t play it straight, as if all the starters were under the same innings strain.